November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A sign of things to come with modeling in the very short term this upcoming winter?  It wouldn’t surprise me. 

Snowy week for the mountains.  Pretty much high POPs every day.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I wouldn’t be surprised at a few rumbles of thunder in that. 

Yeah, I'm skeptical of those QPF amounts but we'll see.  If it verifies, thunder would fit.  It's hard to rip out that much QPF in like 4 hours of fast moving lift in a colder air mass.

It's like 4-8pm or 5-9pm and done.

[Boston Bulldog]

25 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ahh was that was it was, I thought it was the Tuesday set-up.  Tuesday has looked upslope driven.  But this evening never truly got me jazzed until the 12z+ models have all changed fairly significantly.

I had seen a bunch of runs with more of a diffuse 1-4" event further north.  Like 12z HRRR.

HRRR has made a big change in the past like 4 hours.

Is blocked flow keeping spine QPF lower than the valley? Hoping more of this can creep over and onto the immediate leeward slopes

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, I'm skeptical of those QPF amounts but we'll see.  If it verifies, thunder would fit.  It's hard to rip out that much QPF in like 4 hours of fast moving lift in a colder air mass.

It's like 4-8pm or 5-9pm and done.

Mid levels adding a boost to this. Albany radar lighting up. 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Is blocked flow keeping spine QPF lower than the valley? Hoping more of this can creep over and onto the immediate leeward slopes

I think it's blocked and the trajectory of the precip moving almost due north.  Probably helps to have a strong thermal gradient in there too as the cold can come into the Champlain Valley and west slopes unmitigated (it's already cooling down near freezing in the Champlain Valley).  It takes a bit more for that low level cold to cross the barrier, so likely more mixed or non-snow precip to start.

ECMWF and ICON are definitely a bit further east with the precipitation, but I think synoptically it would make sense for the western slopes or even Champlain Valley to wring out the moisture better.  A lot of low level fog and mist around right now, feels like the low levels are juiced.

Seeder feeder with mid-level lift and then low level orographic juice too.

I will say it is inverted at the ski area right now.  

36F at 3,600ft

38F at 2,600ft

32F at 1,500ft

[Boston Bulldog]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Mid levels adding a boost to this. Albany radar lighting up. 

Yeah nice 850mb fronto over Capital District and moving north

 

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Yeah nice 850mb fronto over Capital District and moving north

 

Rapidly falling heights, TTs above 55 boom 2 to 3 rate 

[WxWatcher007]

Snow falling in the Atlanta area.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Snow falling in the Atlanta area.

I wonder how often someplace in the deep south beats SNE to first flakes?

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Snowedin said:

Yeah, it’s very nice. First time visiting this area. It’s such a more relaxed pace from the hustle of the north. I’m just visiting family but casually looking at some small places and accommodations on the side. It’s def something I’m considering in the near future. The weather has been just incredible these last few days.

My brother and extended family have lived in Leland, just west from Wilmington, for almost 15 years and they love it.  (Except when Florence barged in.  They "vacationed" in Charlotte for that event.  He said their house was engineered to withstand 130 mph, though heavy objects at half that speed might be damaging.)

[Snowcrazed71]

I really like this guy and his discussions... He's been pretty spot on this far...

NEWA Discussion – Stratospheric Zonal Wind Reversal Possible Before Thanksgiving
According to the latest ECMWF ensemble 0z mean, the stratosphere may be gearing up for a zonal wind reversal just before Thanksgiving — something that hasn’t occurred this early in the season since the late 1960s.

A stratospheric zonal wind reversal happens when the polar stratospheric winds — which typically blow west to east (westerly) during winter — suddenly shift to an easterly flow. This shift is often the direct result of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event and can have major downstream effects on our weather across North America and the North Atlantic for a long period of time.

Once the stratosphere and troposphere couple, the result can be a disrupted polar vortex, opening the door to prolonged cold spells across the U.S. and Europe, or in some cases, unusual warmth in select regions depending on how the pattern sets up.

If this potential reversal verifies, it would mark the first November event of its kind in over half a century — and could have major implications for early winter pattern development across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Stay tuned to the Dashboard  as I will be tracking the stratospheric trends closely as we head into the Thanksgiving period, and keep you updated..this is going to be fun I promise.

[CoastalWx]

11 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I really like this guy and his discussions... He's been pretty spot on this far...

NEWA Discussion – Stratospheric Zonal Wind Reversal Possible Before Thanksgiving
According to the latest ECMWF ensemble 0z mean, the stratosphere may be gearing up for a zonal wind reversal just before Thanksgiving — something that hasn’t occurred this early in the season since the late 1960s.

A stratospheric zonal wind reversal happens when the polar stratospheric winds — which typically blow west to east (westerly) during winter — suddenly shift to an easterly flow. This shift is often the direct result of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event and can have major downstream effects on our weather across North America and the North Atlantic for a long period of time.

Once the stratosphere and troposphere couple, the result can be a disrupted polar vortex, opening the door to prolonged cold spells across the U.S. and Europe, or in some cases, unusual warmth in select regions depending on how the pattern sets up.

If this potential reversal verifies, it would mark the first November event of its kind in over half a century — and could have major implications for early winter pattern development across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

Stay tuned to the Dashboard  as I will be tracking the stratospheric trends closely as we head into the Thanksgiving period, and keep you updated..this is going to be fun I promise.

Who is that?