November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[Typhoon Tip]

Notables for this month: 

The entry into the Solar Minimum, ~ the 8th, a period of tepid insolation that lasts through ~ Feb 9.   During that time, the sun loses only small amount of latitude through Solstice, after which, it gains a small amount through the first week of Feb.  

Veterans Day on November 11

Then of course there's Thanks Giving  ( Giggidy for lucky folk ).

Climate:   Novembers used to be dependable. They would begin rather obviously autumn-like, then by natural progression ... perhaps even ending in either a winter-like regime or seeming about to do so.  However, ... particularly since the climate never started changing and was instead an alternate AGW hoaxed reality crafted by The Pentaverate Left Wing conspiracy some 20 years ago ...(according to some) these eerily excessive warmth periods began occurring. WTF, right?  Because, "for no other reason other than natural cycles" , massive variability just happens... And so, Novembers as hugely chaotic must then (logically) always just been normal - said by those that claim nothing's changing when chaos by definition means wildly changing.  Fascinating, huh.  Until we figure it all out...I guess we'll just have to wait until HAARP stops executing the instructions from the Pizza Gate command cadre...  and suffer November craziness.

This year is no different ... The Pacific is split during the first 10 or so days of month in the available prognostic methods ( index monitoring/model 'cadence' ..etc).   The western side of Pacific hemisphere is dominated by a strong +WPO index, which is also being undercut by a rather robust right -RMM MJO progression from phase 3 through 6.  Those two are in a constructive interference... a warm signal should be convincing.   However, that warm single is not sending a wave pattern as the eastern Pacific and North America are currently being influenced by a flat +PNA, with terminating -NAO exersion over the eastern continent.  

The operational model runs have been vacillating between a progressive modestly climate cool, to modestly warm layouts, probably being effected by the aforementioned conflict. 

[wokeupthisam]

Nice synopsis and discerning too (well, notwithstanding the HAARP's accord...)   

What always strikes me hereabouts is the transition to 'stick season'.  Early in the month, most deciduous leaves are down but there's still enough oak, beech, birch, apple, and mulberry leaves tenaciously hanging on as a last gasp of the growing season left behind; by the end of the month, its down to just a few stubborn trees while the landscape takes on a brown and gray skeleton. The inverse of May.  The other striking difference to me is, the first flakes are met with welcome anticipation, again inverse of how the last flakes in April, or sometimes May, are received.  

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, wokeupthisam said:

Nice synopsis and discerning too (well, notwithstanding the HAARP's accord...)   

What always strikes me hereabouts is the transition to 'stick season'.  Early in the month, most deciduous leaves are down but there's still enough oak, beech, birch, apple, and mulberry leaves tenaciously hanging on as a last gasp of the growing season left behind; by the end of the month, its down to just a few stubborn trees while the landscape takes on a brown and gray skeleton. The inverse of May.  The other striking difference to me is, the first flakes are met with welcome anticipation, again inverse of how the last flakes in April, or sometimes May, are received.  

Funny you mentioned that ... I was noting to self that we really hadn't had much wind around my area over the last 2 to 3 weeks.  Leafs, though past peak color, were refusing to let go. Today has set in pretty good with breezes - estimating 30 to 35 mph gusts so far, and the trees have en masses gone skeletal all at once. It's like they all just disrobed.  When the wind blows out there, white noise whir; the last time it blew it was the sound of rustling leafs.  There are some oaks still with browns and reds but by and large, everything made the Halloween deadline like right at the bell.   Yesterday at this time I was wondering if this would be the the first Halloween I'd ever seen whence leafs still on the trees. But nope, we're clear

[Go Kart Mozart]

This look has been showing up on E AI for a few runs now.  I don't hate the idea of letting the cold build on the other side through November.

[Ginx snewx]

First substantial snows in the 2500 plus zones in the mountains.  4 to 5 inches seem possible 

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, wokeupthisam said:

Nice synopsis and discerning too (well, notwithstanding the HAARP's accord...)   

What always strikes me hereabouts is the transition to 'stick season'.  Early in the month, most deciduous leaves are down but there's still enough oak, beech, birch, apple, and mulberry leaves tenaciously hanging on as a last gasp of the growing season left behind; by the end of the month, its down to just a few stubborn trees while the landscape takes on a brown and gray skeleton. The inverse of May.  The other striking difference to me is, the first flakes are met with welcome anticipation, again inverse of how the last flakes in April, or sometimes May, are received.  

Not this year leaves are mostly gone and after tonight see ya.

[Torch Tiger]

3 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

This look has been showing up on E AI for a few runs now.  I don't hate the idea of letting the cold build on the other side through November.

AI is weird at that range.  Lets at least use ensemble ? lol

[Torch Tiger]

I am all for folks posting LR model stuff, even an 18z gfs wonked out 360hr. solution.    knowing it is not to be taken seriously.?  

[Go Kart Mozart]

4 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

AI is weird at that range.  Lets at least use ensemble ? lol

I actually think AI outperforms the ensembles at that range.  Averaging 50 runs that try to "solve" the atmosphere is a fools errand.  I'll take pattern recognition any day.

[NoCORH4L]

Deepmind says oak leaves still 50% intact tomorrow?

[Damage In Tolland]

Nothing ahead but weeks and weeks of mild to normal and Mehdom. No cold, no snow threats. 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No cold, no snow threats. 

No vember.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

No vember.

Can’t even do leaves today with the ripping wind . Triggering 

[jbenedet]

Gotta love how those sub freezing 850s can’t hold even with Canadian airmass 

[jbenedet]

At some point, outside the far interior, ya’ll will be looking at November as a shortening of mud season vs a snow potential month.

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can’t even do leaves today with the ripping wind . Triggering 

I did leaves for the last time this season in the wind yesterday afternoon. For the most part it worked in my favor thanks to the wind direction except when I got on the leeward side of the house where I was triggered a couple times LOL. That said, it’s always interesting to me how out in the open you have the prevailing wind and then every now and then you get a close to an opposite wind direction, which is also triggering. 

[Damage In Tolland]

51 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

I did leaves for the last time this season in the wind yesterday afternoon. For the most part it worked in my favor thanks to the wind direction except when I got on the leeward side of the house where I was triggered a couple times LOL. That said, it’s always interesting to me how out in the open you have the prevailing wind and then every now and then you get a close to an opposite wind direction, which is also triggering. 

Yes! That happens all the time . Like today is NW yet when you get in certain areas of yard leaves are blowing in opposite direction. Nothing is more triggering when you’re blowing leaves and they blow straight up in the air and over your head to an area you’ve just cleared 

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

At some point, outside the far interior, ya’ll will be looking at November as a shortening of mud season vs a snow potential month.

Most realize November is not a winter month. Just one of those months many see there first flakes or get small measurable.

[powderfreak]

I always find snow lines interesting… like it was just cold enough 50 feet up the field to stick.

[MJO812]

Congrats on the gfs

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Most realize November is not a winter month. Just one of those months many see there first flakes or get small measurable.

Used to be October/early Novie first flakes, now lucky if its before Thanksgiving.

[Ginx snewx]

Morning visitor across the street from me.

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes! That happens all the time . Like today is NW yet when you get in certain areas of yard leaves are blowing in opposite direction. Nothing is more triggering when you’re blowing leaves and they blow straight up in the air and over your head to an area you’ve just cleared 

1st world problems right there 

[jbenedet]

Another average high behind the “cold”front

[jbenedet]

55/32 

Canadian airmass. 
 

[Spanks45]

32 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

55/32 

Canadian airmass. 
 

baseball tryouts for travel next year was today, despite the winds and off and on clouds, it definitely felt warmer than expected for November 1st. Even last night with trick or treat, the air just didn't have that 'bite' to it. I hope it isn't another one of those seasons that it never gets cold enough for it to snow and stay snow....55° currently

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

Used to be October/early Novie first flakes, now lucky if its before Thanksgiving.

Meh.  A bit of a crap shoot. I don’t really count on seeing flakes until after Thanksgiving.   If it happens, great. 

[dendrite]

24 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Meh.  A bit of a crap shoot. I don’t really count on seeing flakes until after Thanksgiving.   If it happens, great. 

In Hubbardston? We’re talking just flakes…not accums. It’s definitely usually Oct or early Nov.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

1st world problems right there 

Well people that don’t care about their lawn and landscaping it’s not a problem. But for the vast majority that do .. it’s a major issue 

[ineedsnow]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Congrats on the gfs

EURO also has snow