November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[Typhoon Tip]

Notables for this month: 

The entry into the Solar Minimum, ~ the 8th, a period of tepid insolation that lasts through ~ Feb 9.   During that time, the sun loses only small amount of latitude through Solstice, after which, it gains a small amount through the first week of Feb.  

Veterans Day on November 11

Then of course there's Thanks Giving  ( Giggidy for lucky folk ).

Climate:   Novembers used to be dependable. They would begin rather obviously autumn-like, then by natural progression ... perhaps even ending in either a winter-like regime or seeming about to do so.  However, ... particularly since the climate never started changing and was instead an alternate AGW hoaxed reality crafted by The Pentaverate Left Wing conspiracy some 20 years ago ...(according to some) these eerily excessive warmth periods began occurring. WTF, right?  Because, "for no other reason other than natural cycles" , massive variability just happens... And so, Novembers as hugely chaotic must then (logically) always just been normal - said by those that claim nothing's changing when chaos by definition means wildly changing.  Fascinating, huh.  Until we figure it all out...I guess we'll just have to wait until HAARP stops executing the instructions from the Pizza Gate command cadre...  and suffer November craziness.

This year is no different ... The Pacific is split during the first 10 or so days of month in the available prognostic methods ( index monitoring/model 'cadence' ..etc).   The western side of Pacific hemisphere is dominated by a strong +WPO index, which is also being undercut by a rather robust right -RMM MJO progression from phase 3 through 6.  Those two are in a constructive interference... a warm signal should be convincing.   However, that warm single is not sending a wave pattern as the eastern Pacific and North America are currently being influenced by a flat +PNA, with terminating -NAO exersion over the eastern continent.  

The operational model runs have been vacillating between a progressive modestly climate cool, to modestly warm layouts, probably being effected by the aforementioned conflict. 

[wokeupthisam]

Nice synopsis and discerning too (well, notwithstanding the HAARP's accord...)   

What always strikes me hereabouts is the transition to 'stick season'.  Early in the month, most deciduous leaves are down but there's still enough oak, beech, birch, apple, and mulberry leaves tenaciously hanging on as a last gasp of the growing season left behind; by the end of the month, its down to just a few stubborn trees while the landscape takes on a brown and gray skeleton. The inverse of May.  The other striking difference to me is, the first flakes are met with welcome anticipation, again inverse of how the last flakes in April, or sometimes May, are received.  

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, wokeupthisam said:

Nice synopsis and discerning too (well, notwithstanding the HAARP's accord...)   

What always strikes me hereabouts is the transition to 'stick season'.  Early in the month, most deciduous leaves are down but there's still enough oak, beech, birch, apple, and mulberry leaves tenaciously hanging on as a last gasp of the growing season left behind; by the end of the month, its down to just a few stubborn trees while the landscape takes on a brown and gray skeleton. The inverse of May.  The other striking difference to me is, the first flakes are met with welcome anticipation, again inverse of how the last flakes in April, or sometimes May, are received.  

Funny you mentioned that ... I was noting to self that we really hadn't had much wind around my area over the last 2 to 3 weeks.  Leafs, though past peak color, were refusing to let go. Today has set in pretty good with breezes - estimating 30 to 35 mph gusts so far, and the trees have en masses gone skeletal all at once. It's like they all just disrobed.  When the wind blows out there, white noise whir; the last time it blew it was the sound of rustling leafs.  There are some oaks still with browns and reds but by and large, everything made the Halloween deadline like right at the bell.   Yesterday at this time I was wondering if this would be the the first Halloween I'd ever seen whence leafs still on the trees. But nope, we're clear

[Go Kart Mozart]

This look has been showing up on E AI for a few runs now.  I don't hate the idea of letting the cold build on the other side through November.

[Ginx snewx]

First substantial snows in the 2500 plus zones in the mountains.  4 to 5 inches seem possible 

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, wokeupthisam said:

Nice synopsis and discerning too (well, notwithstanding the HAARP's accord...)   

What always strikes me hereabouts is the transition to 'stick season'.  Early in the month, most deciduous leaves are down but there's still enough oak, beech, birch, apple, and mulberry leaves tenaciously hanging on as a last gasp of the growing season left behind; by the end of the month, its down to just a few stubborn trees while the landscape takes on a brown and gray skeleton. The inverse of May.  The other striking difference to me is, the first flakes are met with welcome anticipation, again inverse of how the last flakes in April, or sometimes May, are received.  

Not this year leaves are mostly gone and after tonight see ya.

[Torch Tiger]

3 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

This look has been showing up on E AI for a few runs now.  I don't hate the idea of letting the cold build on the other side through November.

AI is weird at that range.  Lets at least use ensemble ? lol

[Torch Tiger]

I am all for folks posting LR model stuff, even an 18z gfs wonked out 360hr. solution.    knowing it is not to be taken seriously.?