November 2025 OBS Discussion

[donsutherland1]

A generally milder than normal pattern will likely continue through next Wednesday when a system could bring a period of rain. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely. 

The closing days of November will likely turn colder. There is potential for New York City's Central Park to experience its first freeze of 2025. The 1991-2020 normal first data is November 21. The 1961-1990 baseline was November 11. Last winter's first freeze occurred on November 30.

The opening days of December will turn milder. However, colder conditions could begin to develop during the second half of that week and continue through the second week of December. Severe cold appears unlikely through at least the first 10 days of December. Afterward, the pattern evolution will depend, in part, on how the imminent stratospheric warming event propagates. 

Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,395th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. That breaks the record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was -1.40 today. The fall of 39.57 points was the largest such fall since April 27, 2006 when the SOI fell 42.35 points. It was also the fourth largest decline on record. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.384 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.7° (1.3° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[the_other_guy]

I was skiing at Belleayre on Friday and they are off to their best start in years. likewise, many resorts in the northeast.

 

I was in Park city last week. They are off to a horrendous start . no snow at all and not open.

 

that is what the Wasatch range looks like right now. Direct shot of Park City Mountain

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, Tatamy said:

The I78 Deathband event in PA, NJ, and parts of the city.  It was like a synoptic scale lake effect streamer.  The town south of me had 6” on the north end and 10” on the south end (5 minute drive).  Similar in parts of NJ.

This is why I would much rather roll the dice with a very strong El Niño even if the winter is very warm like 23-24. We got a one week relaxation from the overpowering Northern Stream which has been dominating last 7 years. The El Niño driven Southern Stream was 2nd strongest on record for DC.
 

 

[wdrag]

Planning a sct 45-50 MPH thread 6A-6P Friday for the entire NYC subforum. EPS has most sampling sites 40-43 MPH and has been trending conservative in recent daytime w-nw situations. Expecting a few detours, power outages.  Wind advisory potential. I will try to issue at 5P today or 6A Wednesday. 

As for Macy's Parade...  most gusts below 30 MPH Thursday, but cant rule out 35 MPH.

[nycwinter]

ny weather these days dry and windy..

[WX-PA]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is why I would much rather roll the dice with a very strong El Niño even if the winter is very warm like 23-24. We got a one week relaxation from the overpowering Northern Stream which has been dominating last 7 years. The El Niño driven Southern Stream was 2nd strongest on record for DC.
 

 

Very strong Nino in December is very warm and snowless. I'll skip that..December 65,72,82,86,91,97,15 and 22...good luck with that!

[TheClimateChanger]

Storm of the century raging 75 years ago today, with winds gusting up to 100 mph in New York.

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Very strong Nino in December is very warm and snowless. I'll skip that..December 65,72,82,86,91,97,15 and 22...good luck with that!

I will take warm winter with a cold storm track over a cold or near normal winter and a warm storm track. 

[the_other_guy]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I will take warm winter with a cold storm track over a cold or near normal winter and a warm storm track. 

Dont bet on Nino if you live in NYC. Like putting money on the Jets. 2015-16 is a perfect example. Whole season in one giant storm. They could beat the Patriots; but dont bet on it

 

It also messes up the ski season in a big way

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Dont bet on Nino if you live in NYC. Like putting money on the Jets. 2015-16 is a perfect example. Whole season in one giant storm. They could beat the Patriots; but dont bet on it

 

It also messes up the ski season in a big way

Rather have a juiced STJ and storm chances vs the northern stream dominant during Nina’s. That causes SWFE/cutter favored patterns and Miller Bs that can develop too late. I’d say I-84 is the cutoff for where Nina is a better winter on average vs Nino. 

[Brian5671]

43 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Dont bet on Nino if you live in NYC. Like putting money on the Jets. 2015-16 is a perfect example. Whole season in one giant storm. They could beat the Patriots; but dont bet on it

 

It also messes up the ski season in a big way

yeah lots of cutters that year which led to icy conditions

[psv88]

45 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Rather have a juiced STJ and storm chances vs the northern stream dominant during Nina’s. That causes SWFE/cutter favored patterns and Miller Bs that can develop too late. I’d say I-84 is the cutoff for where Nina is a better winter on average vs Nino. 

Agreed. Juice it up

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

Dont bet on Nino if you live in NYC. Like putting money on the Jets. 2015-16 is a perfect example. Whole season in one giant storm. They could beat the Patriots; but dont bet on it

 

It also messes up the ski season in a big way

We haven’t been able to bet on El Niños or La Ninas near NYC over the past 7 winters with how strong the Northern Stream has become. In the old days some of my heaviest snowstorms were during El Niños back on the South Shore up to 2015-2016. These days you really want elevation and latitude in the Northeast.

 

[SACRUS]

 

55 / 41 some light rain working its way in.  After many tough or reach low 60s tomorrow much cooler/colder the next 4- 6 days.