Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph at landfall

[allgame830]

6 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

 

How far can we go until we reach restricted Cuban airspace?

I think in the past recon was given the go fly over their airspace or maybe I’m wrong? 

[Nibor]

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

I think in the past recon was given the go fly over their airspace or maybe I’m wrong? 

Yes, they have clearance.

[Wannabehippie]

 

If fhose really intense pink colored convection can wrap completely wrap around the center, will we see it reach cat 5 status again before it hits Cuba? Or will it only make it to Cat 3-4?

[Snowlover11]

2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

 

If fhose really intense pink colored convection can wrap completely wrap around the center, will we see it reach cat 5 status again before it hits Cuba? Or will it only make it to Cat 3-4?

probably only a high 4, but she’s relentless. Anything is possible.

[Wannabehippie]

11:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 28
Location: 19.3°N 76.6°W
Moving: NE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

[Boston Bulldog]

Given the broader core and limited time over water, I would bet against Melissa re-attaining Cat 5 status. Perhaps flight level winds will begin to resemble that intensity again, but it is highly unlikely those winds would get down to the surface in time. If Melissa had another 18 hours or so before landfall it’s a different story.

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Given the broader core and limited time over water, I would bet against Melissa re-attaining Cat 5 status. Perhaps flight level winds will begin to resemble that intensity again, but it is highly unlikely those winds would get down to the surface in time. If Melissa had another 18 hours or so before landfall it’s a different story.

Center sonde has a 954mb reading with 6kt wind so despite the satellite appearance, it hasn’t translated into strength in a substantial way yet. Obviously still need to see the SW and NE quadrants.

[Wannabehippie]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Center sonde has a 954mb reading with 6kt wind so despite the satellite appearance, it hasn’t translated into strength in a substantial way yet. Obviously still need to see the SW and NE quadrants.

I am not sure the plane got dead center of the hurricane.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF301-2613A-MELISSA.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF301-2613A-MELISSA_dropsondes.png

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I am not sure the plane got dead center of the hurricane.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF301-2613A-MELISSA.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF301-2613A-MELISSA_dropsondes.png

 

 

Given how light the wind was, even if it missed by a touch I would bet it doesn’t make much of a difference. 

[Floydbuster]

 

[Windspeed]

Really impressed by how well Melissa's mid level vortex held together and how fast the eyewall is reorganizing. It's not got a lot of time before landfall in Cuba, but it has incredible upper level support and obviously high SSTs to reintensify some in short order. At least maintain current intensity. Should be a Category 4 strike.

[Boston Bulldog]

27 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Really impressed by how well Melissa's mid level vortex held together and how fast the eyewall is reorganizing. It's not got a lot of time before landfall in Cuba, but it has incredible upper level support and obviously high SSTs to reintensify some in short order. At least maintain current intensity. Should be a Category 4 strike.

Agreed, the ongoing contraction of the core as the vortices get back in concert with each other tells me we should see additional pressure falls through landfall. Insanely anomalous to get a Cat-4 strike in this area of Cuba that is so well guarded by mountainous islands.

Sandy is obviously the gold standard when it comes to poleward tracking hurricane intensification over the Eastern Cayman Trench (kind of shocked there isn't a more descriptive name that's easy to find for this body of water), but Melissa is putting on an impressive performance.

[Windspeed]

Impressive.

[Nibor]

Worried about Santiago de Cuba. Second largest city in the country.

[Windspeed]

Worried about Santiago de Cuba. Second largest city in the country.

Chivrico is a town that might get a direct hit. It's west of Santiago on coastal route 20. It's located at -76.4 W and that looks about where the eye will come ashore. Santiago should be just far enough east to stay out of the eyewall.

Fortunately, the location around Chivrico is not as prone to surge. Melissa will be mostly a wind event and hopefully it's gaining enough forward speed to mitigate flash flooding from torrential rain.

[Windspeed]

VHT bursting in the northern eyewall.