The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like 1" - 2.5" with 15 - 25 mph winds is on the table. Boom potential is 2" - 4" rain, with 30+mph wind. Bust is less than 0.5" and a slight breeze.

[Weather Will]

WB OZ 12K NAM is a bust west of the Bay.

[nj2va]

Poor Ji

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I just don’t care about rain. Sorry ya’ll. Hope you have fun 

lol

I only 'care' so I don't have to water the new grass. Mostly just something to track. For some it has been quite dry for the last couple months so I get wanting a soaking rain.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z ICON...congrats NE MD.

[Chadzachadam]

Kind of wild how different the models are only ~48 hours out. gfs west, ukie and euro way east, nam and icon kind of in the middle

[high risk]

Definitely a camp of solutions that has a bit of a SW--> NE strung-out low solution for Sunday instead of a consolidated storm along the coast.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like 1" - 2.5" with 15 - 25 mph winds is on the table. Boom potential is 2" - 4" rain, with 30+mph wind. Bust is less than 0.5" and a slight breeze.

I think winds may go sustained 25-30 gusting to 40.  Be fun to get hit but not hurt 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z RDPS.  Another in the strung out wonky camp.  Maybe EURO will be right after all....  

 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GFS; trending toward Euro camp. 

 

[MillvilleWx]

3 hours ago, high risk said:

Definitely a camp of solutions that has a bit of a SW--> NE strung-out low solution for Sunday instead of a consolidated storm along the coast.

This is becoming a legit option on the table. Doing the QPF tonight, that was evident. AIFS continues to have a theme of a split SLP with a primary near NC with a secondary to the northeast over the Gulf stream, occluding moving westward before weakening. There could be a QPF min between the evolution, so something to monitor closely. Winds are going to be there regardless, so the coast will get battered no matter the evolution. 

[Weather Will]

Well, the Euro remains the King....

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is becoming a legit option on the table. Doing the QPF tonight, that was evident. AIFS continues to have a theme of a split SLP with a primary near NC with a secondary to the northeast over the Gulf stream, occluding moving westward before weakening. There could be a QPF min between the evolution, so something to monitor closely. Winds are going to be there regardless, so the coast will get battered no matter the evolution. 

There are differences in timing/location of the northern stream vorticity digging southeastward from the GLs. GFS involves it more and sooner than the Euro. Seems to capture the southern piece of energy, encouraging a more consolidated surface low with a track more westward.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

We always want the capture and tilt to occur as far to our southwest as possible. Otherwise we're living on the edge, and that's not good.

[snowfan]

Oh the heartache if this were winter. 

[snowfan]

6z NAM is comical

 

[WxUSAF]

There’s sort of two parts to this. The first is tomorrows afternoon into early Sunday with a deformation axis between the developing coastal and the northern stream shortwave. That seems fairly uniform on guidance? Then the second part is rain from the coastal. That still is uncertain and overnight runs definitely lowered the odds of the big 1”+ amounts.

[TSSN+]

20 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Oh the heartache if this were winter. 

Only if you are a sucker to believe models beyond 48-60hr range. 

[WxUSAF]

35 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Only if you are a sucker to believe models beyond 48-60hr range. 

Forecast is always going to be very razor-edge when you’re counting on a phase happening right on top of us essentially. The “locked in” coastal storms phase much farther southwest. 

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Forecast is always going to be very razor-edge when you’re counting on a phase happening right on top of us essentially. The “locked in” coastal storms phase much farther southwest. 

I mean it’s been with pretty much anything lately even a cold front passage haha. It’s just best to temper expectations till 2-3 days out then don’t have to have meltdowns when things go to crap. 

[dailylurker]

Yay. Days of drizzle and wind. The boring streak continues. 

[MN Transplant]

The Dulles area has entered "severe drought".  If this storm misses it would be extremely disappointing.  https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?VA

[bncho]

06z GFS and Euro are extremely disappointing, but their ensembles aren’t too bad, albeit a tick slightly east.

[Interstate]

20 minutes ago, bncho said:

06z GFS and Euro are extremely disappointing, but their ensembles aren’t too bad, albeit a tick slightly east.

Anyone in here would take this in winter for 5+ inches of snow.

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Anyone in here would take this in winter for 5+ inches of snow.

Seems like this would be in the “slow bleed bargaining stage” part of winter storm tracking 

[TSSN+]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Seems like this would be in the “slow bleed bargaining stage” part of winter storm tracking 

5” to 5 flurries 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

5” to 5% chance for flurries 

fixed

[Eskimo Joe]

12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Seems like this would be in the “slow bleed bargaining stage” part of winter storm tracking 

It's a La Nina event and it's the Mid Atlantic so it's part of the game. I know some people, myself included, get snarky about HR 90+ events, but it seems to be a good rule that beyond the HR 84 - HR 90 timeframe, we should really avoid believing the model hype. 

[Interstate]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

fixed

I see we are already in midwinter form

[RevWarReenactor]

Maybe an inch of rain. Slightly breezy.

Standard last minute rug pull. 

Yawn. At least its not winter. But certainly a preview of what is to come.