The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like 1" - 2.5" with 15 - 25 mph winds is on the table. Boom potential is 2" - 4" rain, with 30+mph wind. Bust is less than 0.5" and a slight breeze.

[Weather Will]

WB OZ 12K NAM is a bust west of the Bay.

[nj2va]

Poor Ji

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I just don’t care about rain. Sorry ya’ll. Hope you have fun 

lol

I only 'care' so I don't have to water the new grass. Mostly just something to track. For some it has been quite dry for the last couple months so I get wanting a soaking rain.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z ICON...congrats NE MD.

[Chadzachadam]

Kind of wild how different the models are only ~48 hours out. gfs west, ukie and euro way east, nam and icon kind of in the middle

[high risk]

Definitely a camp of solutions that has a bit of a SW--> NE strung-out low solution for Sunday instead of a consolidated storm along the coast.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like 1" - 2.5" with 15 - 25 mph winds is on the table. Boom potential is 2" - 4" rain, with 30+mph wind. Bust is less than 0.5" and a slight breeze.

I think winds may go sustained 25-30 gusting to 40.  Be fun to get hit but not hurt 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z RDPS.  Another in the strung out wonky camp.  Maybe EURO will be right after all....  

 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GFS; trending toward Euro camp. 

 

[MillvilleWx]

3 hours ago, high risk said:

Definitely a camp of solutions that has a bit of a SW--> NE strung-out low solution for Sunday instead of a consolidated storm along the coast.

This is becoming a legit option on the table. Doing the QPF tonight, that was evident. AIFS continues to have a theme of a split SLP with a primary near NC with a secondary to the northeast over the Gulf stream, occluding moving westward before weakening. There could be a QPF min between the evolution, so something to monitor closely. Winds are going to be there regardless, so the coast will get battered no matter the evolution. 

[Weather Will]

Well, the Euro remains the King....

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is becoming a legit option on the table. Doing the QPF tonight, that was evident. AIFS continues to have a theme of a split SLP with a primary near NC with a secondary to the northeast over the Gulf stream, occluding moving westward before weakening. There could be a QPF min between the evolution, so something to monitor closely. Winds are going to be there regardless, so the coast will get battered no matter the evolution. 

There are differences in timing/location of the northern stream vorticity digging southeastward from the GLs. GFS involves it more and sooner than the Euro. Seems to capture the southern piece of energy, encouraging a more consolidated surface low with a track more westward.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

We always want the capture and tilt to occur as far to our southwest as possible. Otherwise we're living on the edge, and that's not good.

[snowfan]

Oh the heartache if this were winter. 

[snowfan]

6z NAM is comical

 

[WxUSAF]

There’s sort of two parts to this. The first is tomorrows afternoon into early Sunday with a deformation axis between the developing coastal and the northern stream shortwave. That seems fairly uniform on guidance? Then the second part is rain from the coastal. That still is uncertain and overnight runs definitely lowered the odds of the big 1”+ amounts.