"Potentially" powerful Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain-especially south of I84, and fairly high impact sct coastal gusts 50+ MPH and possibly moderate or greater coastal flooding at the midday Sun and Monday high tide cycles.

[Sundog]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is more east

18z EURO AI made decent bump west:

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Off base with this criticism, like most people who say such things. Declaring the SOE is simply for planning purposes so the State is ready to release funds for emergency response and recovery when and after a natural disaster strikes. It doesn't shut anything down, per se. 

https://nj.gov/njoem/about-us/state-of-emergency.shtml#:~:text=What is a State of,event exceeds the State's resources.

You don't need a state of emergency to communicate and coordinate.  Declaring a SOE has become too commonplace, and only de-emphasizes a potentially dangerous situation.  

[Dark Star]

45 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

People don't even read what the State of Emergency is specifically for, they just assume it means they are supposed to stay home. Some times that is the case, often it isn't. 

Doesn't matter.  People who need to organize, coordinate and communicate for an event do not need a State of Emergency.  We have seen a State of Emergency declared for the entire state when only 1 or 2 counties may be affected.  

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Doesn't matter.  People who need to organize, coordinate and communicate for an event do not need a State of Emergency.  We have seen a State of Emergency declared for the entire state when only 1 or 2 counties may be affected.  

It’s to get federal funds. That’s it. 

[Sundog]

18z GEMLAM looks much nicer than the 18z RGEM at hour 48:

[weatherpruf]

16 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

You don't need a state of emergency to communicate and coordinate.  Declaring a SOE has become too commonplace, and only de-emphasizes a potentially dangerous situation.  

how would you know? have you served in government? 

 

[weatherpruf]

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

It’s to get federal funds. That’s it. 

funds that are unlikely to come these days.....hey we don't need fema right? the states can do it all themselves......

[Sundog]

7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

funds that are unlikely to come these days.....hey we don't need fema right? the states can do it all themselves......

Almost 80% of government is deemed essential and so it doesn't actually get shut down. FEMA is part of that 80%. 

Also I don't think a SOE has anything to do with the feds anyway. 

[qg_omega]

5 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

The bigger joke is the models.  People will defend them and say how much more advanced they are and all the extra data that is input into them and the result is always the same.  Waffling and uncertainty even up until game time. 

Models had this way south from the start

[Sundog]

I think 18z UKMET would be a bit better compared to 12z but the run stops at 66 so no way to be sure

[wthrmn654]

Lol and the game continues 

[wthrmn654]

Euro ai 2 runs in row trending west...

[psv88]

31 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Almost 80% of government is deemed essential and so it doesn't actually get shut down. FEMA is part of that 80%. 

Also I don't think a SOE has anything to do with the feds anyway. 

It does 

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

It does 

Well either way they're not going to need it lol

[Sundog]

I hate this small gap in modeling during this time. 

I need more reasons to be duped into thinking this is coming west. 

[Picard]

There is a lot of crap on X about this storm on X - seems like a lot of wannabes trolling for more followers.
NWS was bullish on their X post at 6 pm - they still have my area at 2-2.5" of rain.  Not sure about that.

[Stormlover74]

Nam cut back but focus is on south and western areas

[wthrmn654]

Is the nam trying to merge Jerry into the system?! Or am I seeing things

[wthrmn654]

Eps at 18z had some clusters to the left of placed center .

[dseagull]

2 hours ago, psv88 said:

It’s to get federal funds. That’s it. 

I suggest you read the actual legislation, prior to what will soon become common knowledge.  SOE declarations are an avenue for misappropriation of funds, and this has only emboldened those in power to declare them more frequently.   While they absolutely do open the doors for federal funding, they simultaneously allow for interstate funding to be reallocated. 

 

It's not what you may believe it is.  It occurs across party lines.  

[Wxoutlooksblog]

3 hours ago, wdrag said:

Noting the 18z EC and ECAI OP holding the northern stream closed low entity stronger and longer likely negating a phase with the Se USA trof.  Will reword-soften the headline if ensembles and 00z-06z/11 cycles continue similarly eastward. For now, I dont know how this resolves.  Checking back tomorrow.

 

It certainly doesn't look like the big wound up powerful nor'easter we saw on the maps yesterday though a few of the models still drench us and kick up the winds. My gut feeling is the dry air works down from the north and that the low center at some point makes a righthand turn before the heavier rainfall is able to win out. I'm sure we'll get some rainfall and some wind gusts but to me at this point it looks manageable.

WX/PT

[RU848789]

8 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

It needs to be renamed. People don't know what state of emergency actually means

We can agree on this.  

[RU848789]

Surprised nobody posted the 0Z Euro - just a slight increase in QPF vs. the last run, lol.  The rumors of this storm's death have been greatly exaggerated to paraphrase Mark Twain. 

 

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Surprised nobody posted the 0Z Euro - just a slight increase in QPF vs. the last run, lol.  The rumors of this storm's death have been greatly exaggerated to paraphrase Mark Twain. 

 

 

What a joke with model performance 

[wdrag]

Good Saturday morning everyone,  I've no change to thread headline. Too much guidance argues against softening the implied results.  Once our most reliable global models say its gone, then I'll grudgingly accept... but am glad to wake up to a modeled decent nor'easter on the way.

I've checked latest SREF/BOM/as well as all global ensembles that we often use and am not buying into the weaker eastward Canadian/ICON/UKMET ensembles...though they are within the realm of possibility.

Even today... anyone noticing sprinkles out there on LI or the NJ coast now... see radar. It's going to rain later on today in NJ/EPA (iso 0.1-0.2)...not everywhere but this is the first part of the instability burst aloft as PW increases,  drawn northward by the sewd moving Great Lakes closed LOW at 5H/7H.  Eventually we get a break tonight or tomorrow morning, then the real deal begins Sunday afternoon with max impact risk, I think Monday. 

Everything stated on p1 of this thread continues.  Modeling wavers but overall... beneficial rain is coming with the mesoscale models later today forward helping focus where iso 4" occurs (for now preferably Ocean/Monmouth but it could be anywhere where persistent moderate rain occurs) with general persistent 850MB ELY inflow of 40-maybe 50KT Sunday-Monday. 

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

3 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Surprised nobody posted the 0Z Euro - just a slight increase in QPF vs. the last run, lol.  The rumors of this storm's death have been greatly exaggerated to paraphrase Mark Twain. 

 

 

You know winter is coming when you say a potential storm could be significant and get weenied by Snowman. Some things never change. 

[Sundog]

Pretty decent shift on the 6z UKMET:

[wthrmn654]

Nws extended the high wind watches 

[donsutherland1]

NWS forecast for most significant coastal flood impacts expected for Long Island:

[wdrag]

Follow NWS warnings and statements. Probably a good idea to plan altnerate travel plans Sunday afternoon-Monday night. Air travel will be impact as well roads. Deeper bands of heavier gusty rains Sunday night-Monday morning then low top steady light-briefly mdt rain Mon afternoon-night. 

I could be in error on my take but what am prepared for in the NYC subforum. 

Am not exactly sure what is out by NWS. I think they have the CFWRNG's out, if not...going to happen, probably 3 cycles of MDT, possibly a major in there Monday-also dependent on the sub basins, especially packing in on the northeast wind. Follow NWS. Coastal flooding also will have a river runoff component at the interface between incoming ocean waves, wind, elevated water level and dealing with 1-3" of rainfall runoff attempt into the ocean-marshes etc. 

My guess is that the HWA will convert to warnings on the coasts,  for sct G50-60MPH, with the warning approach from my view, exacerbated by wet coastal ground, uproots and fully leaved wet leaves breaking branches Sunday evening-Monday.  Could see few g45 MPH western NJ/se NYS and CT as well Sun night-Monday morning. 

Isolated inland flood warning in NJ (Ocean-Monmouth) Monday morning????  if some of the outlier model 4-6" materializes. Rainfall dependent. 

Modeling and WPC has consistently highlighted Ocean and Monmouth counties for biggest rainfall past few days.  WPC trimmed qpf slightly in its early morning forecast.  I'm expecting a little more than what they have, similar to early yesterday's 10z/10 forecast.  

Back later in the day. Will convert headline this afternoon to add OBS, but do add OBS rainfall from today when it occurs.