OBS for moderate coastal impact Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain everywhere. To minimize any disruptions review NWS warnings-statements.

[NJwx85]

12z Euro AI has almost no rain West of Trenton.

[MJO812]

Euro east

[wthrmn654]

The euro ai rain totals are west of 6z at least for parts of long island. Seems to be a sharp cutoff in jersey area though. 

[MJO812]

LOL CMC

This storm is becoming a dud for many areas outside the coast

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LOL CMC

This storm is becoming a dud for many areas outside the coast

I would gladly take an inch here, the problem is I don't trust how I get it, either with a last minute miracle wraparound or 120 hours of drizzle

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LOL CMC

This storm is becoming a dud for many areas outside the coast

Probably not done trending east...went from a storm to a miss back to a storm and now going back to a miss

[wthrmn654]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Probably not done trending east...went from a storm to a miss back to a storm and now going back to a miss

With the way things have been i could see it trending back west or way east at this point lmao

[Brian5671]

media's going crazy with it and sunday now looks dry 

[MJO812]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

media's going crazy with it and sunday now looks dry 

Winter is going to be fun

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LOL CMC

This storm is becoming a dud for many areas outside the coast

I would consider less than an inch of rain and some gusts maybe over 40 a dud here too.

[qg_omega]

Joke of a storm

[Sundog]

Anyone want to hazard a guess as to how different the 18z NAM will look from its 12z run?

[STORMANLI]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter is going to be fun

So stock up on sedatives and sedatives now?

[STORMANLI]

42 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

So stock up on sedatives and sedatives now?

Sorry and tranquilizers.  See, needed already. 

[mob1]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I would consider less than an inch of rain and some gusts maybe over 40 a dud here too.

Same here, though that's the likely outcome (or maybe even worse). It is what it is, at least it didn't happen with a snowstorm or hurricane. 

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Anyone want to hazard a guess as to how different the 18z NAM will look from its 12z run?

That 6 inch jackpot on the Jersey coast will likely go down to 5.9"

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

Same here, though that's the likely outcome (or maybe even worse). It is what it is, at least it didn't happen with a snowstorm or hurricane. 

Actually a hurricane can scoot out to sea, no thank you

[Sundog]

Just now, mob1 said:

That 6 inch jackpot on the Jersey coast will likely go down to 5.9"

There is a significant chance that 18z will show almost no precip in PA despite the 4 inch amounts shown there. 

[mob1]

Just now, Sundog said:

Actually a hurricane can scoot out to sea, no thank you

To each his own.

Either way, the weather has been exceedingly boring for a while now so it kind of sucks that any semblance of excitement the models showed is gone now.

Here's to an amazing winter.

[Uniblab]

Congrats Great Britain.

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

To each his own.

Either way, the weather has been exceedingly boring for a while now so it kind of sucks that any semblance of excitement the models showed is gone now.

Here's to an amazing winter.

Ever since I got a rain gauge the biggest event I have recorded is 0.2 inches lol what a jinx

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Ever since I got a rain gauge the biggest event I have recorded is 0.2 inches lol what a jinx

We bought a snowblower last year. still in the box 

[Brian5671]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

We bought a snowblower last year. still in the box 

Literally no market for those since 2021

[MANDA]

If 00z models are more or less consist with these 12z solutions then we know for almost certain where this is headed.  WPC 7 day qpf has shifted precio max to BOS.  Still have 1-3” soaking for most of this forum but dubious based on 12z global I would think.  These phasing situations are murder.

[NEG NAO]

NJ State of Emergency

Office of the Governor | Acting Governor Way Declares State of Emergency Ahead of Dangerous Nor’easter Storm

[donsutherland1]

Looking at the dry start to October, the guidance had been showing what would be a fairly uncommon event. Perhaps, in retrospect, if rainfall amounts wind up becoming greatly reduced, the lesson is that until one is in the near range (< 3 days out), one should be skeptical of statistical outlier events, even when there is strong model support. The model support was based on the idea of a complex phasing situation, which, itself, is difficult for models to handle in the medium-range and beyond.

A scenario concerning slower developing system that grazes the coastal plain (Long Island and eastern New England should still do well) is becoming more probable. We'll see what the later model runs show.

For Central Park, here are the maximum one- and two-day rainfall events following a completely dry first week of October, as was the case this year.

What still seems more certain is that the development of a drier pattern consistent with the development of an NAO-/AO- following the nor-easter remains on track.

[Yanksfan]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Euro east

If this were January my fellow snow weenies would be losing it right about now. Sheesh.

[Neblizzard]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Winter is going to be fun

Just don’t bother tracking 7 days out, heck wait 24 hours in. 

[wishcast_hater]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Joke of a storm

The bigger joke is the models.  People will defend them and say how much more advanced they are and all the extra data that is input into them and the result is always the same.  Waffling and uncertainty even up until game time. 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, Yanksfan said:

If this were January my fellow snow weenies would be losing it right about now. Sheesh.

Sign to come for winter ?