Maestrobjwa Posted Thursday at 03:14 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:14 PM 18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Buckle up friend....gonna be a long winter of rug pulls Can't be a rug pull if ya don't believe it from the beginning. Literally any model solution that shows a hit we have to throw it out. We know what the limitations of both the nina and the -PDO regime are, right? So like...why give a "good" model run showing something different the time of day? Better to just ignore it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Thursday at 04:01 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:01 PM 46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Can't be a rug pull if ya don't believe it from the beginning. Literally any model solution that shows a hit we have to throw it out. We know what the limitations of both the nina and the -PDO regime are, right? So like...why give a "good" model run showing something different the time of day? Better to just ignore it! Because that’s what insane people do. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Thursday at 05:56 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:56 PM WB 12Z GEFS through Day 9. Lots of hits. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Thursday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:36 PM 39 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS through Day 9. Lots of hits. very good mean as well 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted Thursday at 06:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:45 PM 3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Can't be a rug pull if ya don't believe it from the beginning. Literally any model solution that shows a hit we have to throw it out. We know what the limitations of both the nina and the -PDO regime are, right? So like...why give a "good" model run showing something different the time of day? Better to just ignore it! We all believe it from the beginning, we just tell ourselves we don't as a coping mechanism. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Thursday at 08:03 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:03 PM 1 hour ago, bncho said: very good mean as well I remember seeing something like this on the Ens a couple of weeks ago too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted Thursday at 08:06 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:06 PM 5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Buckle up friend....gonna be a long winter of rug pulls Not even out of October and Wiggum has us buckling up... 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Friday at 01:30 AM Share Posted Friday at 01:30 AM Guessing that’s a hit! Damm where’s the cold air? (Our theme coming up) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted Friday at 03:38 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:38 AM 2 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said: Guessing that’s a hit! Damm where’s the cold air? (Our theme coming up) Cold air is 4000 ft up, in WVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Friday at 09:54 AM Share Posted Friday at 09:54 AM 0z euro and 0z gfs have the “La Nina screw job” solution. Although they’re a pretty big change from earlier runs. Euro AI still a pretty big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Friday at 09:56 AM Share Posted Friday at 09:56 AM 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: 0z euro and 0z gfs have the “La Nina screw job” solution. Although they’re a pretty big change from earlier runs. Euro AI still a pretty big hit. It’s clear how northern stream interaction screws us here. Happens more often than not in a nina 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Friday at 10:29 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:29 PM Gfs is a southern slider end of next week. Wow. I mean the trend was there on the models but long range forecasting is a challenge. We will see if the Euro folds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Friday at 11:40 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:40 PM WB 18Z GFS, EURO, and AI at Day 6. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted yesterday at 12:06 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:06 AM Glad euro and AI are back onboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted yesterday at 12:16 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:16 AM WB 18Z GEFS still has some members with big amounts through the end of next work week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago WB 6Z GFS compared to 0Z...let's see if it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago Latest Natty Blend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago GFS actually has snowfall all the way into Shenandoah this Friday. Personally I just hope WV gets something and it sticks around till Friday midday when my tests are over for the week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 25 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: GFS actually has snowfall all the way into Shenandoah this Friday. Personally I just hope WV gets something and it sticks around till Friday midday when my tests are over for the week. Euro and CMC have drastically different solutions than gfs. They both spin up a low in the upper OHV and then meanders north, giving us the likes of severe rather than a coastal. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 8 hours ago, CAPE said: Latest Natty Blend And the latest. Still quite a bit of uncertainty among the guidance wrt storm evolution and impacts. So the blend is the way to go for now. Most here only care about precip since it has been dry, so here is that. However depending on the exact track/evolution there could also be major impacts for coastal areas that took a big hit recently. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 3 hours ago, Terpeast said: Euro and CMC have drastically different solutions than gfs. They both spin up a low in the upper OHV and then meanders north, giving us the likes of severe rather than a coastal. Sign me up for a severe t'storm day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago WB 30 day Nov. 9 through Dec. 9 from the EPS weeklies. I think this November-December period could be different from last year. I mean, we saw no sustained cold air before mid/ late January last year. The mean looks pretty good and the control shows an extreme in a good way in the long range. At least we may have a chance of some snow before Christmas this year. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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