October Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Buckle up friend....gonna be a long winter of rug pulls

Can't be a rug pull if ya don't believe it from the beginning. Literally any model solution that shows a hit we have to throw it out. We know what the limitations of both the nina and the -PDO regime are, right? So like...why give a "good" model run showing something different the time of day? Better to just ignore it!

[nw baltimore wx]

46 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Can't be a rug pull if ya don't believe it from the beginning. Literally any model solution that shows a hit we have to throw it out. We know what the limitations of both the nina and the -PDO regime are, right? So like...why give a "good" model run showing something different the time of day? Better to just ignore it!

Because that’s what insane people do. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS through Day 9.  Lots of hits.

[bncho]

39 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS through Day 9.  Lots of hits.

very good mean as well

[hstorm]

3 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Can't be a rug pull if ya don't believe it from the beginning. Literally any model solution that shows a hit we have to throw it out. We know what the limitations of both the nina and the -PDO regime are, right? So like...why give a "good" model run showing something different the time of day? Better to just ignore it!

We all believe it from the beginning, we just tell ourselves we don't as a coping mechanism. 

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

very good mean as well

I remember seeing something like this on the Ens a couple of weeks ago too.

[Mikeymac5306]

5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Buckle up friend....gonna be a long winter of rug pulls

Not even out of October and Wiggum has us buckling up...

 

[Kevin Reilly]

Guessing that’s a hit!

Damm where’s the cold air? (Our theme coming up) 

[peribonca]

2 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Guessing that’s a hit!

Damm where’s the cold air? (Our theme coming up) 

Cold air is 4000 ft up, in WVA

[WxUSAF]

0z euro and 0z gfs have the “La Nina screw job” solution. Although they’re a pretty big change from earlier runs. Euro AI still a pretty big hit.

 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

0z euro and 0z gfs have the “La Nina screw job” solution. Although they’re a pretty big change from earlier runs. Euro AI still a pretty big hit.

 

It’s clear how northern stream interaction screws us here. Happens more often than not in a nina

[midatlanticweather]

Gfs is a southern slider end of next week. Wow. I mean the trend was there on the models but long range forecasting is a challenge. We will see if the Euro folds

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS, EURO, and AI at Day 6.

[WxUSAF]

Glad euro and AI are back onboard 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS still has some members with big amounts through the end of next work week.