October Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

4 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Man doesn't your house have a bathroom?

I had to think about this for a second then realized what you were talking about 

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Man doesn't your house have a bathroom?

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

I had to think about this for a second then realized what you were talking about 

I'm still trying to figure it out, lol

[wxmeddler]

The longer range hi-res guidance is adverting a Narrow Cold-Frontal Rain Band (NCRFB) like feature for Sunday evening. This makes sense given the high shear / low (no?) instability. If we can't get proper severe, at least a NCRFB is "cool" meteorologically.

[WxUSAF]

Blocking and a big PNA spike open the window to some sort of strong slow moving system just before Halloween. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Blocking and a big PNA spike open the window to some sort of strong slow moving system just before Halloween. 

Yeah the advertised late Oct- early Nov pattern looks like one that could snow in the western highlands.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah the advertised late Oct- early Nov pattern looks like one that could snow in the western highlands.

Definitely lake effect or upslope behind a strong cold front if not synoptic 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS and GEFS. Next week looks wet.

[AlexD1990]

so are we still having a Sandy redux? or was that a model fantasy 

[MN Transplant]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EPS and GEFS. Next week looks wet.

Models are more than hinting about a deep trough crossing the country next week.  No doubt that it would provide a good opportunity for rain.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Models are more than hinting about a deep trough crossing the country next week.  No doubt that it would provide a good opportunity for rain.

Just need the 27th and 31st dry. 

[IronTy]

3 hours ago, AlexD1990 said:

so are we still having a Sandy redux? or was that a model fantasy 

JB was already hinting at the Sandy analog in the euro week 3 window.  

[WxUSAF]

3 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Models are more than hinting about a deep trough crossing the country next week.  No doubt that it would provide a good opportunity for rain.

 

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just need the 27th and 31st dry. 

12z euro is biblical rains late next week

[Paleocene]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

12z euro is biblical rains late next week

you weren't kidding lol. nearly all of this between hour 200-300. start building your arks

[IronTy]

15 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

you weren't kidding lol. nearly all of this between hour 200-300. start building your arks

What's the kuchera?

 

In before the "what went wrong" thread request 

[MillvilleWx]

32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

12z euro is biblical rains late next week

 

25 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

you weren't kidding lol. nearly all of this between hour 200-300. start building your arks

I'm a gambling man and I understand I might be going out on a limb here, but I'll take the under. Just a hunch

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 

I'm a gambling man and I understand I might be going out on a limb here, but I'll take the under. Just a hunch

Coward!

[dailylurker]

I'm all in. I'll fire up the thread.

Flood apocalypse or bust

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, dailylurker said:

I'm all in. I'll fire up the thread.

Flood apocalypse or bust

Lowlands jack or bust

[nw baltimore wx]

It’s fitting that we end the drought and finish the year above average precip-wise.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

 

12z euro is biblical rains late next week

If that pans out on the Euro, I'll donate to the board. Euro long range QPF bias is real.

[Eskimo Joe]

47 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

It’s fitting that we end the drought and finish the year above average precip-wise.

"Epic flood breaks epic drought."

- @usedtobe

[CAPE]

LR Ensembles depict a -AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern for the end of Oct onto early November. We shall see about storminess but should be a Fall feel at least. Not especially cold with a +EPO and deep GoA trough, but also not a Nina-ish look at all.

[Weather Will]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

LR Ensembles depict a -AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern for the end of Oct onto early November. We shall see about storminess but should be a Fall feel at least. Not especially cold with a +EPO and deep GoA trough, but also not a Nina-ish look at all.

Things are getting serious again; you are posting WB maps!

[bncho]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

LR Ensembles depict a -AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern for the end of Oct onto early November. We shall see about storminess but should be a Fall feel at least. Not especially cold with a +EPO and deep GoA trough, but also not a Nina-ish look at all.

sign me up for that h5 look in winter! 

[WxUSAF]

15 hours ago, dailylurker said:

I'm all in. I'll fire up the thread.

Flood apocalypse or bust

 

15 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

 

I'm a gambling man and I understand I might be going out on a limb here, but I'll take the under. Just a hunch

NoVA lost 200” of snow at 0z. Poor @Ji

[dailylurker]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

 

NoVA lost 200” of snow at 0z. Poor @Ji

Yup! That run was a snooze fest. Hopefully something interesting pops up soon. 

[SnowenOutThere]

12 hours ago, CAPE said:

LR Ensembles depict a -AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern for the end of Oct onto early November. We shall see about storminess but should be a Fall feel at least. Not especially cold with a +EPO and deep GoA trough, but also not a Nina-ish look at all.

Wonder if the mountains could get their first accumulations out of that? Would love to go on a 3 hour jaunt if it meant seeing October snow. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Wonder if the mountains could get their first accumulations out of that? Would love to go on a 3 hour jaunt if it meant seeing October snow. 

It's possible given the look. Still pretty far out. GFS suggesting some upslope in early November with LES in the NW flow behind a cold front.

[Chris78]

Both the GFS and Euro have 40s for highs towards the end of the runs. Bring it!