October Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

4 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Man doesn't your house have a bathroom?

I had to think about this for a second then realized what you were talking about 

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, aldie 22 said:

Man doesn't your house have a bathroom?

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

I had to think about this for a second then realized what you were talking about 

I'm still trying to figure it out, lol

[wxmeddler]

The longer range hi-res guidance is adverting a Narrow Cold-Frontal Rain Band (NCRFB) like feature for Sunday evening. This makes sense given the high shear / low (no?) instability. If we can't get proper severe, at least a NCRFB is "cool" meteorologically.

[WxUSAF]

Blocking and a big PNA spike open the window to some sort of strong slow moving system just before Halloween. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Blocking and a big PNA spike open the window to some sort of strong slow moving system just before Halloween. 

Yeah the advertised late Oct- early Nov pattern looks like one that could snow in the western highlands.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah the advertised late Oct- early Nov pattern looks like one that could snow in the western highlands.

Definitely lake effect or upslope behind a strong cold front if not synoptic 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS and GEFS. Next week looks wet.

[AlexD1990]

so are we still having a Sandy redux? or was that a model fantasy 

[MN Transplant]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 0Z EPS and GEFS. Next week looks wet.

Models are more than hinting about a deep trough crossing the country next week.  No doubt that it would provide a good opportunity for rain.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, MN Transplant said:

Models are more than hinting about a deep trough crossing the country next week.  No doubt that it would provide a good opportunity for rain.

Just need the 27th and 31st dry. 

[IronTy]

3 hours ago, AlexD1990 said:

so are we still having a Sandy redux? or was that a model fantasy 

JB was already hinting at the Sandy analog in the euro week 3 window.  

[WxUSAF]

3 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

Models are more than hinting about a deep trough crossing the country next week.  No doubt that it would provide a good opportunity for rain.

 

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just need the 27th and 31st dry. 

12z euro is biblical rains late next week

[Paleocene]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

12z euro is biblical rains late next week

you weren't kidding lol. nearly all of this between hour 200-300. start building your arks

[IronTy]

15 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

you weren't kidding lol. nearly all of this between hour 200-300. start building your arks

What's the kuchera?

 

In before the "what went wrong" thread request 

[MillvilleWx]

32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

12z euro is biblical rains late next week

 

25 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

you weren't kidding lol. nearly all of this between hour 200-300. start building your arks

I'm a gambling man and I understand I might be going out on a limb here, but I'll take the under. Just a hunch

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 

I'm a gambling man and I understand I might be going out on a limb here, but I'll take the under. Just a hunch

Coward!

[dailylurker]

I'm all in. I'll fire up the thread.

Flood apocalypse or bust

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, dailylurker said:

I'm all in. I'll fire up the thread.

Flood apocalypse or bust

Lowlands jack or bust

[nw baltimore wx]

It’s fitting that we end the drought and finish the year above average precip-wise.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

 

12z euro is biblical rains late next week

If that pans out on the Euro, I'll donate to the board. Euro long range QPF bias is real.

[Eskimo Joe]

47 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

It’s fitting that we end the drought and finish the year above average precip-wise.

"Epic flood breaks epic drought."

- @usedtobe

[CAPE]

LR Ensembles depict a -AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern for the end of Oct onto early November. We shall see about storminess but should be a Fall feel at least. Not especially cold with a +EPO and deep GoA trough, but also not a Nina-ish look at all.

[Weather Will]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

LR Ensembles depict a -AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern for the end of Oct onto early November. We shall see about storminess but should be a Fall feel at least. Not especially cold with a +EPO and deep GoA trough, but also not a Nina-ish look at all.

Things are getting serious again; you are posting WB maps!

[bncho]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

LR Ensembles depict a -AO/-NAO/+PNA pattern for the end of Oct onto early November. We shall see about storminess but should be a Fall feel at least. Not especially cold with a +EPO and deep GoA trough, but also not a Nina-ish look at all.

sign me up for that h5 look in winter!