October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR:  81 (1963)
NYC: 82 (1963)
LGA: 79 (1963)
JFK: 78 (1963)


Lows:

EWR: 27 (1936)
NYC: 28 (1936)
LGA: 33 (1976)
JFK: 31 (1976)


Historical:

 

1764 - A "very remarkable storm of snow with high winds" produced 22 inches at Rutland in central Massachusetts. (David Ludlum)

 

1929 - A snowstorm dumped 27 inches upon Ishpeming, MI, in 24 hours to establish a state record. (David Ludlum)

1943: Coastal storm ends drought, rains on 25th - 28th DC had 3.41 inches of rain and Baltimore got 5.00 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1962 - An early season winter storm over New England blanketed northern Maine with 7 to 16 inches of snow, and southeastern New England with up to 3 inches of snow. Worcester MA received a record 4.7 inches of snow. (The Weather Channel)  The low temperature of 21 °F is the lowest temperature ever recorded in Richmond in October. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records)

1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain from Virginia to New York State. Fallen leaves made roads and sidewalks slick, and also clogged sewers. Rainfall totals of 1.55 inches at Newark NJ, 1.54 inches at Harrisburg PA, 1.27 inches at Scranton PA, and 1.22 inches at Atlantic City NJ, were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Low pressure brought snow and gale force winds to the Great Lakes Region, and snow and high winds to the north central U.S. Winds gusted to 47 mph at Lansing MI, and reached 55 mph at Pierre SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Wintry weather invaded the northwestern U.S. A storm crossing the Central Rockies produced up to 23 inches of snow in the mountains east of Salt Lake City UT. "Indian Summer" continued in the Lower Ohio Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region. Afternoon highs of 71 degrees at Marquette MI and 72 degrees at Sault Ste Marie MI were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1996: Thousands of homes in southern and central Texas were without power after strong storms dumped as much as a foot of rain. The Frio, Guadalupe, and Llano rivers spilled their banks, making roads impassable and stranding some motorists. The Llano crested at 30 feet -- 18 feet above flood stage -- and Llano County sheriff's deputies were evacuating homes downriver. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

2003: A strong cold front moved through the Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon, causing an outbreak of severe weather. An F0 tornado touched down in Hainesport, NJ, killing one person. This was the first tornado fatality in Burlington County, NJ history both in modern tornado records kept since 1950, and in reliable unofficial records extending back into the 1700s. The tornado cut a path 1/2 mile long and 30 yards wide. Although the tornado was F0, it is considered a significant tornado, usually F2 or greater, because of the fatality. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


2006: An F1 tornado (waterspout) came ashore and caused significant damage on the west side of Apalachicola Florida. 

2006: An F1 tornado (waterspout) came ashore and caused significant damage on the west side of Apalachicola Florida. Marine boats sank, four homes destroyed, and part of a hospital roof collapsed. Hundreds of trees and power lines were down, but fortunately there were no serious injuries. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA)

 

[Picard]

Low of 21 in Walpack.  Low 28 at home in Sparta.  Chilly morning.

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Many parts of the lower Hudson Valley specifically Orange County had 40-50 inches of snow in March 2018. Add the 5-6 in early April and that was a very memorable period. 

Yeah, that was an amazing late season snowfall pattern. Islip had 36.5” of snow from 3-7-18 to 4-2-18. But Islip has only had a total of 27.6” during 22-23, 23-24, and 24-25 combined.

[STORMANLI]

33°

First Frost

[FPizz]

28.  Had to scrape the windshield this morning for the first time.

[ForestHillWx]

29 here, patchy frost. Another beautiful day on tap. 

[nycwinter]

it was cold enough to wear winter gloves my hands were freezing..

[wthrmn654]

42 coldest yet

[WestBabylonWeather]

Such a clear day. Saw the city skyline coming north from Robert Moses. Rare that happens. 

[winterwx21]

Low temp of 34 here this morning. A little frost, but those pole lima beans in the garden are amazing. They still look fine. I'll still be picking more over the next week. I'm thinking around November 4th is when the vegetable garden will finally be killed. 

[Sundog]

This week's system is still evolving, I see a dryslot

[Brian5671]

39 minutes ago, Sundog said:

This week's system is still evolving, I see a dryslot

It's basically a cutter now-a slug of heavy rain then dryslot

[steve392]

Gorgeous day out.  Slight chill in the air.  Feels good. 

[Picard]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

This week's system is still evolving, I see a dryslot

Dryslots, sharp cutoffs, or too far north and west.  It's always at least one of those three.  May this time be different?
Meanwhile, holy effing Melissa.

[forkyfork]

remember when blocks actually blocked things

[bluewave]

Snowfall season starting at the higher elevations with some still great fall foliage even in the more northerly spots that are just past the peak.

 

 

[FPizz]

In my way to work, North NJ up 287 wasnt nearly as good this year compared to last year.  Dull peak that lasted maybe 3-4 days it seemed.  I was looking forward to seeing it this year after last years awesome colors.

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, Sundog said:

This week's system is still evolving, I see a dryslot

Dry slots seem to have become a norm?

[qg_omega]

18 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Dry slots seem to have become a norm?

North Atlantic SSTs force every “block” south which just becomes a mega SE ridge which produces cutters

[donsutherland1]

A strong NAO blocking regime is in place and will persist into early November. As a result, an extended period of cooler than normal weather will prevail through the end of the month. 

Tomorrow will be another cool day. Temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 50s across much of the region. Many locations outside of New York City will again see readings start in the 30s. Hard freezes are again likely well north and west of New York City.

The unseasonably cool weather will continue through at least the middle of the week. Rain will likely arrive Wednesday night or Thursday. A general 1"-3" rainfall is likely late Wednesday night through Friday. There remains uncertainty about the area of heaviest rainfall. The storm will be followed by a continuation of cool weather.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter.

The SOI was +23.33 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.351 today. The NAO was -1.497.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.2° (0.3° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[winterwx21]

5 hours ago, FPizz said:

In my way to work, North NJ up 287 wasnt nearly as good this year compared to last year.  Dull peak that lasted maybe 3-4 days it seemed.  I was looking forward to seeing it this year after last years awesome colors.

Yeah the fall foliage isn't nearly as nice as usual this year. Obviously the drought had a very negative effect. A shame that we went so dry for months after the tremendous flooding in mid July. We just don't get normal rainfall anymore -- it's either way too much or not nearly enough. 

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah the fall foliage isn't nearly as nice as usual this year. Obviously the drought had a very negative effect. A shame that we went so dry for months after the tremendous flooding in mid July. We just don't get normal rainfall anymore -- it's either way too much or not nearly enough. 

It’s very challenging to guess ahead of time how vibrant the foliage will be during any given year. Not really noticing colors quite a vivid up here compared to years past here and back on Long Island. The best fall color that I can remember back on Long Island was actually the late very vibrant foliage back in 2007. Went to a friends house in Mt. Sinai for Thanksgiving that year and the colors were gorgeous for that late in the season. 

[Sundog]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s very challenging to guess ahead of time how vibrant the foliage will be during any given year. Not really noticing colors quite a vivid up here compared to years past here and back on Long Island. The best fall color that I can remember back on Long Island was actually the late very vibrant foliage back in 2007. Went to a friends house in Mt. Sinai for Thanksgiving that year and the colors were gorgeous for that late in the season. 

What might be causing the more muted colors this year? It's nowhere near as dry as last fall. 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, Sundog said:

What might be causing the more muted colors this year? It's nowhere near as dry as last fall. 

We probably have to factor the summer drought stress during peak heating into the equation. This was the 4th driest and warmest summer here. Last year the summer was much wetter before the dry conditions last fall.
 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1966	4.15	0
2	2022	4.29	0
3	2017	4.76	3
4	2025	4.99	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2022	75.4	0
2	2024	75.2	0
3	2020	74.9	2
4	2025	74.5	0
5	2010	74.3	0

[MJO812]

46 here

[SACRUS]

45 / 37 partly cloudy as clouds build in from the south as the system south of us pulls out.   Dry today -  showers/rain tomorrow night and Thu 1 - 3 inches (perhaps some spots in NNJ/NE get more).  Dries out and clears up by mid day Friday.  Another dry and nice fall weather weekend coming up this week.  Overall near normal to above with a bit of back and forth 11/1 - 11/11.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 84 (2023)
NYC: 83 (1919)
LGA: 82 (2023)
JFK: 81 (2023)

Lows:

EWR: 25 (1936)
NYC: 29 (1976)
LGA: 33 (1976)
JFK: 30 (1976)


Historical:

 

1846: In the spring of 1846, a group of nearly 90 emigrants left Springfield, Illinois, and headed west to California. The Donner party arrived at the Great Salt Lake and still needed to cross the Sierra Nevada Mountains late in the season. On this day, a heavy snowfall blocked the pass, thus trapping the emigrants. Only 45 of the original 89 emigrants reached California the following year.


1846: A group of inexperienced travelers was caught unaware by a major storm which dumped 5 feet of snow on Donner Pass in California. Their wagons and cattle were trapped along with them and only 45 of the 79 people in the party survived the winter. The group came to be known as the Donner Party, a part of western folklore. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1919: 87° Maximum late season record in Washington, DC. (Ref. Washington Weather Records)   Record highs were up and down the East Coast including: Lynchburg, VA: 88°, Baltimore, MD: 87°, Richmond, VA: 87°, Washington, DC: 87°, Charlotte, NC: 86°, Greensboro, NC: 86°, Raleigh, NC: 86°, Savannah, GA: 86°, Norfolk, VA: 86°, Roanoke, VA: 86°, Huntington, WV: 85°, Wilmington, NC: 85°, Atlanta, GA: 84°, Wilmington, DE: 83°, New York (Central Park), NY: 83°, Hartford, CT: 81°, Boston, MA: 81°, Milton, MA: 81°, Asheville, NC: 80°, Harrisburg, PA: 79°, Worcester, MA: 76°, Avoca, PA: 75° and Williamsport, PA: 75°.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1936 - The temperature at Layton, NJ, dipped to 9 above zero to establish a state record for the month of October. (The Weather Channel)

1971 - A severe early season blizzard raged across the Plateau Region and Rocky Mountain Region. Heavy snow blocked railroads and interstate highways, and record cold accompanied the storm. Lander WY received 27 inches of snow, and the temperature at Big Piney WY plunged to 15 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum)

1973: Several inches of snow fell in the Georgia Mountains. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

1987 - Thunderstorms over the San Joaquin Valley of California produced three-quarters of an inch of rain in thirty minutes at Placerville, and caused numerous power outages due to lightning. Rain began to diminish in the northeastern U.S., but some flooding continued in Vermont, eastern New York and northern New Jersey. One inch rains in Vermont clogged culverts and sewers with fallen leaves, resulting in erosion of dirt roads. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Arctic cold invaded the north central U.S. Valentine, NE, dipped to 8 degrees, and Cutbank, MT, reported a morning low of one degree above zero. The temperature at Estes Park CO dipped to 15 degrees, but then soared thirty degrees in less than thirty minutes. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A storm crossing the western U.S. produced 10 to 20 inches of snow across northern and central Wyoming, with 22 inches reported at Burgess Junction. Seven cities in the Lower Ohio Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region reported record high temperatures for the date as readings again warmed into the 70s. Alpena MI reported a record high of 75 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1991:  2.4 inches of snow at Yakima, WA was enough to tie the record for most ever snowfall in the entire month of October.
(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
 

[Sundog]

This suppression would have caused some tears for sure in winter:

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, Sundog said:

This suppression would have caused some tears for sure in winter:

Most storms over the last seven years have been falling into the cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger and suppressed Southern stream. Strong benchmark storm tracks have been missing. This very strong Northern stream of the Pacific Jet has been leading to these groupings.

One group of storms gets suppressed to the south as kicker lows in the fast Pacific flow come into Western North America. This was the case last winter with the big Gulf snowstorm which went OTS to our south instead of coming up the coast.

The second group is the Great Lakes cutter like we got in mid-February during the -5 SD Greenland block. The jet was so strong and the SSTs to our east so warm that it forced a Southeast ridge rather then getting a benchmark track. Instead Toronto got the historic snows. Enough room between the shortwaves so one system can really amplify and cut to our west like later this week. That was originally forecast to be a coastal storm.

Then the third track is the hugger which can produce some lighter snow events like we got last February. But there was still too much Southeast ridging for NYC Metro so the heaviest totals were to our NW. Plus the there are often too many shortwaves in the fast Pacific flow leading to poor wavelength spacing.

It would be great in the coming winters if we can at least see a few very deep benchmark tracks. But the last time we were able to pull this off was in January 2022 and February 2021. 

[Jersey Andrew]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Most storms over the last seven years have been falling into the cutter, I-78 to I-84 hugger and suppressed Southern stream. Strong benchmark storm tracks have been missing. This very strong Northern stream of the Pacific Jet has been leading to these groupings.

One group of storms gets suppressed to the south as kicker lows in the fast Pacific flow come into Western North America. This was the case last winter with the big Gulf snowstorm which went OTS to our south instead of coming up the coast.

The second group is the Great Lakes cutter like we got in mid-February during the -5 SD Greenland block. The jet was so strong and the SSTs to our east so warm that it forced a Southeast ridge rather then getting a benchmark track. Instead Toronto got the historic snows. Enough room between the shortwaves so one system can really amplify and cut to our west like later this week. That was originally forecast to be a coastal storm.

Then the third track is the hugger which can produce some lighter snow events like we got last February. But there was still too much Southeast ridging for NYC Metro so the heaviest totals were to our NW. Plus the there are often too many shortwaves in the fast Pacific flow leading to poor wavelength spacing.

It would be great in the coming winters if we can at least see a few very deep benchmark tracks. But the last time we were able to pull this off was in January 2022 and February 2021. 

If I remember correctly, January 2016 was originally forecast suppressed to south hitting DC area and only within 48 hours was NYC region in bullseye. Don’t know if it was PDO but we had a ridiculous number of blockbuster storms 2009-2011 of 20 inch plus variety.