LibertyBell Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 22 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: GFS has it going for about 36 hours. it just sits there Maybe we'll see something like this in the winter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: It increasingly appears that a powerful nor'easter that will be cut off will bring a prolonged period of rain to the New York City area, along with gusty winds, coastal flooding, and beach erosion. New York City appears to be in line for 1" to perhaps 3" of total rainfall with 2" to perhaps 4" likely for parts of Long Island. There remains some uncertainty concerning the upper part of the range. Parts of the Jersey Shore and Delmarva could see an area of 3"-6" of rain. The 10/9 12z NBE offers a reasonable starting point while the guidance refines the amounts in coming days. Select NBE Amounts: October 11-15: Atlantic City: 4.29" Belmar: 3.48" Boston: 3.54" Bridgeport: 3.04" Farmingdale: 3.15" Islip: 3.41" New Haven: 3.04" New York City-Central Park: 2.71" New York City-JFK Airport: 3.20" New York City-Laguardia Airport: 2.80" Newark: 2.72" Philadelphia: 2.61" Poughkeepsie: 2.03" Salisbury: 4.31" Westhampton: 3.83" White Plains: 2.88" Afterward, the NAO is forecast to plunge below -1.000 while the AO also goes negative. Such blocking is typically associated with cooler and much drier conditions than would otherwise be the case. ECMWF Weekly Forecasts: October 13-20: ECMWF Weekly Forecasts: October 20-27: The latest CFSv2 weekly forecasts show drier conditions developing following the nor'easter. However, the CFSv2 is much more aggressive in bringing back the warmth. I suspect that the ECMWF weeklies may have a better idea based on the latest teleconnections forecast. That's not an especially cold outlook, but it would fit the experience with the teleconnections and the fact that the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere is not available to be tapped when the period of blocking develops. Finally, one or more highs of 70° during the second half of October are probably more likely than not given climatology and past cases following a very warm first week of the month. analogs for this noreaster Don? Ash Wednesday March 1962 and December 1992?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Records: Highs: EWR: 88 (2011) NYC: 86 (1916) LGA: 85 (2011) JFK: 87 (2011) Lows: EWR: 35 (1988) NYC: 37 (1988) LGA: 40 (1988) JFK: 35 (2001) Historical: 1703: Early-season snowstorm from Philadelphia to Boston. "The snow is now three to four inches deep... a sad face of winter" (Judge Samuel Sewall's diary) 1804: New England's Snow Hurricane of 1804 - - - At Norfolk, winds shifted from Force 3 southwest (on the Beaufort scale) to Force 6 northwest by 2 p.m.. A schooner Rising Stakes, off Cape Henry, went through the "dreadful squall" at 11 a.m.. The system passed through Chesapeake Bay, then inland between Philadelphia and Atlantic City before moving onward to New York City and Boston. Eight perished offshore. As it passed through the Northeast, it became a nontropical low as cold air rapidly enveloped the circulation of the cyclone. Snow fell from the hills of Connecticut northward into Canada. As much as 24 to 30 inches of snow fell in the Berkshires of Massachusetts...which in a wet snow could be approximated to six inches or more of liquid precipitation. This was the first reference to snow involved with a land falling tropical cyclone, but not the last as this happen again in the April th and 7th storm of 1889.(Ref. for Snow Hurricane of 1804)(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1804: The famous Snow Hurricane moved ashore near Atlantic City on this day. After briefly passing through Connecticut and into Massachusetts, cold air was entrained in the circulation with heavy snow falling between New York to southern Canada. Berkshires Massachusetts and Concord New Hampshire record two feet of snow with this hurricane. This storm produced the first observation of snow from a hurricane, but not the last. Hurricane Ginny of 1963 brought up to 18 inches (400 mm) of snow to portions of Maine. 1895: Snow fell in Philadelphia, PA, the earliest occurrence of snow in the city's history. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1903 - New York City was deluged with 11.17 inches of rain 24 hours to establish a state record. Severe flooding occurred in the Passaic Valley of New Jersey where more than fifteen inches of rain was reported. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1903: At Richmond, a "furious wind storm" descended upon the city the morning of the 9th, accompanied by a 20 degree fall in temperature. Trees were uprooted and communications were "disturbed" in the state capital. An elderly man in Leesburg drowned while trying to cross over Little River on a log. East Coast Storms 1924: Boston, Massachusetts started a period of 44 days without measurable precipitation today. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1944: Major hailstorm in Montana causes $7.5 million crop loss. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1970: The Weather Bureau is officially renamed the National Weather Service. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1973: Heavy rains and hail pounded extreme eastern South Dakota during the late evening hours. 3.79 inches of rain fell in a 2 hour period at the Sioux Falls airport setting a new rainfall intensity record for a two hour period in Sioux Falls. The 4.54 inches that fell that day is the second highest amount on record for a 24 hour period. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1980: Nashville, TN set two records in opposite directions. On Monday, October 6th, the morning low temperature was 31°, a record cold for so early in the season. Then, on this date, the high was 91°, a record high for so late in the season. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1981 - The temperature at San Juan, Puerto Rico, soared to 98 degrees to establish an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Eighteen cities in the southeastern U.S. and the Middle Atlantic Coast Region reported record low temperatures for the date. Asheville NC dipped to 29 degrees, and the record low of 47 degrees at Jacksonville FL marked their fourth of the month. A second surge of cold air brought light snow to the Northern Plains, particularly the Black Hills of South Dakota. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Ten cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Hartford CT with a reading of 28 degrees. Snow continued in northern New England through the morning hours. Mount Washington NH reported five inches of snow. Warm weather continued in the western U.S. Los Angeles CA reported a record high of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the Upper Midwest. Thirteen cities in Ohio, Michigan and Indiana reported record low temperatures for the date, including Marquette MI with a reading of 20 degrees. Unseasonably warm weather continued in the western U.S. as the San Francisco Giants won the National League pennant. San Jose CA reported a record high of 91 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 2001: An unusually strong fall outbreak of tornadoes spawned at least 23 twisters across parts of Nebraska and Oklahoma. Hardest hit was the town of Cordell, OK, but a 22 minute lead time led to an amazingly low casualty count: only nine injuries and no fatalities. 2003: A severe thunderstorms rolled across Bikoro in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Lightning struck a school, killing 11 people and injuring 73 others. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2005: A major winter storm brought heavy wet snowfall to the Front Range Mountains and the Eastern Foothills in Colorado, portions of the Denver Metro area and the Palmer Divide. Snow accumulations ranged from 8 to 26 inches with drifts 3 to 4 feet high reported in places. The heaviest snow occurred to the east and southeast of Denver closing major highways, including I-70 from Denver to Limon. Snowfall totals included: 22 inches near Hawkins, 19 inches near Bennett, 17 inches southeast of Aurora, 16 inches in the foothills near Boulder, 14 inches near Parker, 13 inches near Castle Rock, 12 inches in Centennial, 11 inches at Parker, 10 inches at Littleton and 10 inches at the airport in Denver. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Departures thru Oct 8 EWR: +5.7 NYC: +5.1 LGA: + 4.2 JFK: +4.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Sun - Mon looks like the largest rainfall sinec Jul 14 when +2 inches fell for the EWR/NYC areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 hour ago, Picard said: Tonight will be chilly. The heat will go on for the first time. Walpack probably makes it well down into the 20s. It’s ironic that the last time Walpack dropped under 20° in October we got the historic +13 December in 2015 and they stayed above 20°. ▼ Walpack NJ 2015-10-18 Mesonet 47 18 ▼ Walpack NJ 2015-10-19 Mesonet 54 19 ▼ Walpack NJ 2015-12-06 Mesonet 49 21 ▼ Walpack NJ 2015-12-24 Mesonet 70 40 Data for October 19, 2015 through October 19, 2015Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SUSSEX AIRPORT WBAN 20 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 22 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 23 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 23 SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 23 AEROFLEX-ANDOVER AIRPORT WBAN 23 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 24 CRANFORD COOP 24 BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP 24 Belvidere Area ThreadEx 24 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 25 ATSION COOP 25 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 26 ESTELL MANOR COOP 26 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 27 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 27 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 27 WERTSVILLE 4 NE COOP 27 CANOE BROOK COOP 27 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 27 TOCKS ISLAND COOP 27 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 27 Trenton Area ThreadEx 27 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 27 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 28 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 28 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 28 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 28 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 28 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 28 PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE COOP 29 SOMERDALE 4 SW COOP 29 EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 29 WRIGHTSTOWN COOP 29 SEABROOK FARMS COOP 30 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 30 BOONTON 1 SE COOP 30 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 30 MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 30 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 31 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: analogs for this noreaster Don? Ash Wednesday March 1962 and December 1992?? Perhaps a less intense version of the October 29-30, 2017 nor'easter, at least in terms of impacts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just got a High Wind Watch alert for October 19th/20th, has to be a mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 hours ago, bluewave said: It’s ironic that the last time Walpack dropped under 20° in October we got the historic +13 December in 2015 and they stayed above 20°. ▼ Walpack NJ 2015-10-18 Mesonet 47 18 ▼ Walpack NJ 2015-10-19 Mesonet 54 19 ▼ Walpack NJ 2015-12-06 Mesonet 49 21 ▼ Walpack NJ 2015-12-24 Mesonet 70 40 Data for October 19, 2015 through October 19, 2015Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SUSSEX AIRPORT WBAN 20 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 22 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 23 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 23 SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 23 AEROFLEX-ANDOVER AIRPORT WBAN 23 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 24 CRANFORD COOP 24 BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP 24 Belvidere Area ThreadEx 24 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 25 ATSION COOP 25 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 26 ESTELL MANOR COOP 26 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 27 TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT WBAN 27 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 27 WERTSVILLE 4 NE COOP 27 CANOE BROOK COOP 27 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 27 TOCKS ISLAND COOP 27 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 27 Trenton Area ThreadEx 27 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 27 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 28 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 28 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 28 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 28 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 28 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 28 PHILLIPSBURG-EASTON BRIDGE COOP 29 SOMERDALE 4 SW COOP 29 EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 29 WRIGHTSTOWN COOP 29 SEABROOK FARMS COOP 30 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 30 BOONTON 1 SE COOP 30 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 30 MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 30 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 31 I forgot how cold that morning was area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 19 minutes ago, Cfa said: Just got a High Wind Watch alert for October 19th/20th, has to be a mistake. Nope just really early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago beautiful almost late october day in the city refreshing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Maybe we'll see something like this in the winter too. That would be epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18 minutes ago, Picard said: I forgot how cold that morning was area wide. Yeah, one of the only times the October minimums were lower than December for many locations. It was a great idea to put a weather station in that location to see how much lower the readings can be in the valley. The last time NJ had single digits during October was in 1940 and 1936. Monthly Data for October 1940 for New JerseyClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 7 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 11 RUNYON COOP 12 LAYTON 3 NW COOP 14 CANOE BROOK COOP 15 Monthly Data for October 1936 for New JerseyClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. LAYTON 3 NW COOP 9 CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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