October 2025 Discussion and Obs

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea east wind on the sound and you’re toast. I tried fishing off of eatons neck two weeks ago and we had 3-4 footers at short intervals. We fished in the harbor instead. 

it's too bad because there are a pile of porgies out there; of course ny has long had ridiculously high size limits on everything else, i mean we have caught maybe hundreds of sea bass which would be legal in most states but ny has a ridiculous size of 16.5 inches....weakfish are also silly at 16....and one fish....3 on the sea bass. it's just ridiculous and its why there aren't many people fishing anymore. but they are coming for the porgies too; this year nj closed the season til sept 1st, didn't matter because there are few there anyway, and the little fish are all over the fish markets. matter of time before it's one or two fish at some draconian size limit. it's already tough at 11 inches. probably caught over a hundred on some trips, like 90 percent shorts. we'll hit the shrewsbury rocks off nj next. easier run for us, but less room for wind errors.....raritan bay is of course dead. has been for years now. gonna get the most out of this weather anyway. cheers. by the way iirc you are a soccer fan; watched the under 20 us men dismantle france 3-0 the other day. all in the last five minutes. incredibly, they have done this before, against guys who went on to win the world cup.

[psv88]

21 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

it's too bad because there are a pile of porgies out there; of course ny has long had ridiculously high size limits on everything else, i mean we have caught maybe hundreds of sea bass which would be legal in most states but ny has a ridiculous size of 16.5 inches....weakfish are also silly at 16....and one fish....3 on the sea bass. it's just ridiculous and its why there aren't many people fishing anymore. but they are coming for the porgies too; this year nj closed the season til sept 1st, didn't matter because there are few there anyway, and the little fish are all over the fish markets. matter of time before it's one or two fish at some draconian size limit. it's already tough at 11 inches. probably caught over a hundred on some trips, like 90 percent shorts. we'll hit the shrewsbury rocks off nj next. easier run for us, but less room for wind errors.....raritan bay is of course dead. has been for years now. gonna get the most out of this weather anyway. cheers. by the way iirc you are a soccer fan; watched the under 20 us men dismantle france 3-0 the other day. all in the last five minutes. incredibly, they have done this before, against guys who went on to win the world cup.

It’s rare to catch a keeper, it’s crazy. As for soccer, the US will never be able to compete at the highest level unfortunately 

[WestBabylonWeather]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Yea east wind on the sound and you’re toast. I tried fishing off of eatons neck two weeks ago and we had 3-4 footers at short intervals. We fished in the harbor instead. 

Been to eatons neck once before. It seems very private 

[Sundog]

5 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Been to eatons neck once before. It seems very private 

Yes. I've been there a few times and there's no real reason to visit unless you live there so I know what you mean. 

[lee59]

81 the high here, now down to 72

[Sundog]

Hopefully the 18z GFS has a clue for next Tuesday:

[uofmiami]

80.8 in Syosset & 80.7 in Muttontown for the high.  

[psv88]

37 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Been to eatons neck once before. It seems very private 

Purely residential and far away from everything. Asharoken is beautiful it also far from civilization 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

It’s rare to catch a keeper, it’s crazy. As for soccer, the US will never be able to compete at the highest level unfortunately 

i agree, but those under 20s have beaten france at that youth world cup twice now and tied them once. i still think with the right coach the boys could make a deep run; they have some incredible players on the senior team, but the team just isn't gelling the way they did 20 years ago. france generally outhustles other teams, something they have trouble with the usa at that youth level. tomorrow looks like a good day to hit the open seas. probably too nice to catch anything! jersey boats loaded up on the sea bass today and the big roll from the storm is finally over. won't get many chances to fish out there in small craft as we get into the month. those northerlies can really blow....already seeing some stripers in the raritan and saw birds working in the sound, seen a lot of guys anchored by those rockpiles, not sure what they are targeting, blackfish isn't open yet. we are at the mercy of the weather.....gotta take advantage.

[weatherpruf]

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Purely residential and far away from everything. Asharoken is beautiful it also far from civilization 

are there any boat ramps around there; i mean we are tired running the east river....

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

are there any boat ramps around there; i mean we are tired running the east river....

Yes. There is a boat ramp just east of there in north port by the LIPA “stacks” as they call it. Many people launch their boats there to fish off the point 

[psv88]

8 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

are there any boat ramps around there; i mean we are tired running the east river....

You’ll want sound view boat ramp.

https://www.huntingtonny.gov/boat-ramps

[Roger Smith]

This is the entire list of times where three or more days in October had max 80 or higher at NYC ...

... ... daily records involved are in bold. The list is organized by value exceeded on all three days underlined if the spell lasted more than three days. 

... ... (spells not ranked have 80+ for Sep 30 to Oct 2)

 1. 88 94 90 ___ Oct 4-6 1941

(-- 85 88 90) ___ Sep 30 - Oct 2 1927

 2. 84 86 87 81 __ Oct 11-14, 1954

 3. 84 88 85 83 __ Oct 9-12, 1949

 4. 84 85 84 ___ Oct 1-3 1968

 5. 83 84 86 ___ Oct 3-5 1891

 6. 84 83 83 82 87 __ Oct 4-8 2007

 7. 82 88 86 ___ Oct 1-3 1922

 8. 84 86 82 83 __ Oct 1-4 1954 (Sep 30 was 83)

 9. 86 82 88 ___ Oct 4-6 1959

10. 84 82 81 84 80 __ Oct 6-10 1990  

11. 82 84 82 ___ Oct 3-5 1983

12. 81 84 86 ___ Oct 3-5 1967

13. 81 81 85 ____ Oct 17-19 2016

14. 83 82 81 ____ Oct 5-7 2017 (followed by 77 77 81 77)

15. 80 80 81 ___ Oct 3-5 1898

16. 80 82 80 ___ Oct 3-5 1973

_______________

Other impressive warm spells ...

83 82 79 __ Oct 17-19 1928 came very close to making list. 

84 86 76 86 __ Oct 5-8 1931 and 80 76 84 86 __ Oct 6-9 1916 are impressive four-day spells. 

85 78 85 __ Oct 3-5 1879 might have gotten there in today's urban heat island.

82 87 71 __ Oct 15-17 1897

75 84 83 __ Oct 20-22 1920

75 82 90 __ Oct 15-17 1938

84 91 75 __ Oct 9-11 1939

78 77 82 81 __ Oct 29-31 1946

80 83 74 85 __ Oct 20-23 1947

79 76 84 83 __ Oct 30 - Nov 2 1950

75 84 81 76 __ Oct 14-17 1956

84 83 76 74 80 __ Oct 9-13 1961

79 83 83 76 83 __ Oct 15-19 1963

77 79 78 82 __ Oct 24-27 1963

80 81 78 ___ Oct 16-18 1968

74 78 73 ___ Nov 3-5 1975 also 71 76 75 Nov 7-9 1975

76 80 88 78 ___ Oct 20-23 1979

77 76 77 76 ___ Oct 26-29 1989 (included for lateness of season)

77 81 86 ___ Oct 11-13 1995

77 84 81 ___ Oct 8-10 2011

82 83 78 86 __ Oct 1-4 2013

78 76 74 74 ___ Oct 21-24 2017

74 75 75 74 ___ Nov 7-10 2020

76 75 77 ___ Nov 5-7 2022

77 74 80 ___ Oct 26-28 2023

76 81 79 ___ Oct 29-31 2024

 

A lot of daily records in October are part of two-day 80+ spells and lack the third day to enter the list. It seems that there is often a tendency for a reload of near 80 readings about five days after any given 2-4 day spell. 

 

 

[Sundog]

40 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Purely residential and far away from everything. Asharoken is beautiful it also far from civilization 

I drove Asharoken Ave once many years ago in winter and the wind was so ferocious that it had caked all the short trees and bushes in ice coming from the ocean spray right next to the road where it gets really thin. I wish I took a picture it looked really cool. 

[MJO812]

Expect some chilly weather with the NAO and AO going negative 

[Stormlover74]

Some places have dropped 25 degrees already since 5pm. Clear and dry conditions ftw

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Expect some chilly weather with the NAO and AO going negative 

Expect another SE ridge then 

[jm1220]

Look what I spied with my little eye. Time to build up the subscribers! Who's SnowbirdBob? 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:
 

EWR: 87
TEB: 86
New Brnswck: 86
LGA: 83
ISP: 83
TTN: 83
BLM: 82
PHL: 82
NYC: 82
ACY: 81
JFK: 78

[winterwx21]

On 10/2/2025 at 10:58 AM, FPizz said:

It depends on where their forecast area is based off the green box on the map, it says it right on the page, so whatever Don points out is actually told right there.  Belmar includes the Shark River area, whereas south Belmar is several miles away, so that is why it is probably cooler by being mostly surrounded by water vs not.  Anyway, enjoy seaside.  Rides and games should be open for fun.  Years ago in the late 80s/early 90s when I was a kid, the one wheel game where you could win baseball cards, I figured out the wheel clicks and would win like 80% of the time, haha.  

 

  

Yeah almost everything was still open. It was almost as busy there today as a summer day. Perfect weather for it. We always go a few times during July and August on Wednesdays because they have fireworks on Wednesday nights, but it's nice to go down there one more time during the early fall before things close down. Almost everything will be closing after next weekend. 

But anyway just to get back to what we were talking about with the Belmar forecast. I see Belmar had a high temp of 82 today, so we were right about the NWS forecast of 72 being ridiculously low. It felt like summer this afternoon walking up and down the Seaside Heights boardwalk. 

[BobbyHolikWillFindYou]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Look what I spied with my little eye. Time to build up the subscribers! Who's SnowbirdBob? 

Plot twist...its all sleet.

[ForestHillWx]

55 now; going to be another beauty. 

[bluewave]

On 10/3/2025 at 6:55 AM, jm1220 said:

Bluewave has posted about how a very cold Siberia creates a contrast with the very warm water off Japan which fuels the raging Pacific jet which we certainly DON’T want. So it’s a more complex relationship than “Siberian snow cover is always good”. 

Yeah, the contrast between Siberia and the SSTs in the WPAC is the strongest on record for early October. It resulted in a 5 sigma jet streak out near the Aleutians recently. This has lead to the record warmth over North America from late September into early October.

[forkyfork]

either trend to a rainstorm or go away thx

[psv88]

Low of 56. 85 maybe today 

[SACRUS]

 

From 48 to 70 / 57.  Warm 60 hours with 3 more days of low - mid 80s, warmest spots again to the 86-87 range.  Front later PM Tue brings some rains.  Cooler Wed - Fri.  Models now with low cutting off under the ridge see,s similar to a few weeks ago more into the southeast by 10/12 - 10/15 peiord.  Looks like ridging comes builds back east beyond there - overallwarmer.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 93 (1941)
NYC: 94 (1941)
LGA: 93 (1941)
JFK: 84 (1967)


Lows:

EWR: 34 (1965)
NYC: 35 (1881)
LGA: 38 (1965)
JFK: 36 (1965)

Historical:

 

1638 - The journal of John Winthrop recorded that a mighty tempest struck eastern New England. This second severe hurricane in three years blew down many trees in mile long tracks. (David Ludlum)

1786 - The famous "Pumpkin Flood" occurred on the Delaware and Susquehanna Rivers. Harrisburg PA reported a river stage of twenty-two feet. The heavy rains culminated a wet season. (David Ludlum)

 

1786: The famous “Pumpkin Flood” occurred on the Delaware and Susquehanna Rivers. Harrisburg, PA, reported a river stage of twenty-two feet. 

1844: A hurricane swept along the path from Cuba to the Florida Straits to the Bahamas to Bermuda and finally to Newfoundland. Such destruction "is rarely known in the annals of commerce." (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1892: Washington, DC recorded a trace of snow, its earliest trace of snowfall on record. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1917 - The temperature at Sentinel, AZ, soared to 116 degrees to establish an October record for the nation. (The Weather Channel)

1941: Record maximum temperature for October 96° in Washington, DC. (The Washington Weather Records - KDCA) Bermuda high pressure pumped record heat across much of the east. Phoenixville, PA reached 100°, establishing an October state maximum temperature record. Locations recording their all-time October high temperature records included: Baltimore, MD: 97°, Washington, DC: 96°, and Philadelphia, PA: 96°. Other locations reporting daily record high included: Roanoke, VA: 98°, Harrisburg, PA: 97°, Richmond, VA: 97°, Lynchburg, VA: 96°, Raleigh, NC: 96°, Reading, PA: 94°, Trenton, NJ: 94°, Elizabeth City, NC: 94°, Wilmington, DE: 94°, Greensboro, NC: 94°, Newark, NJ: 93°, Norfolk, VA: 93°, Allentown, PA: 92°, Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 92°, Chattanooga, TN: 92°, Williamsport, PA: 91°, Atlanta, GA: 91°, Huntington, WV: 90°, Asheville, NC: 90°, Avoca, PA: 89°, Scranton-Wilkes Barre, PA: 89°, Lexington, KY: 89°, Beckley, WV: 88° and Elkins, WV: 86°.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1954: Infamous Hurricane Hazel, which caused tremendous destruction in the Carolinas, was born on this date. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1966: Inez formed unusually far east for late in the season, Inez is among the deadliest hurricanes on record, with an approximate death toll of over 1,000 people across several Caribbean countries. In addition to being exceptionally deadly and intense, Inez was the first solitary storm on record to affect the West Indies, Bahamas, Florida, and Mexico all on one track. 45 sailors died in shipwrecks in the Straits of Florida along with 3 on land. Intensification resumed after passing Guadeloupe, and Inez rapidly reached its peak of 150 mph while south of Puerto Rico on September 28. Inez crossed the Florida Keys on October 5 as a strengthening hurricane, delivering hurricane-force winds to all of the Keys. Inez then reaching its peak in the Gulf of Mexico with 140 mph winds and 948 mb on October 9. The threat to Texas increased, but Inez was forced southwest late on October 9 and the storm weakened before making landfall near Tampico, Mexico, on October 10. Total damage more than $150 million and on its very long track as a powerful major hurricane, passing through the Lesser Antilles, Haiti, Florida, and especially Mexico. Inez's Storm Track - Weather Underground

1970: An F4 tornado moved northeast from northern Pottawatomie County, into southeast Lincoln County in Oklahoma. A total of 564 homes, 157 businesses, 12 public buildings, 5 schools, and 10 churches were either damaged or destroyed. In Prague, there were 4 deaths and 80 injuries, as the tornado tracked through the middle of town. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1972 - Heavy rains, mostly the remnants of Tropical Storm Joanne, fell across much of Arizona. It was believed to be the first time in Arizona weather history that a tropical storm entered the state with its circulation still intact. The center was over Flagstaff early on the 7th. (3rd-7th) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - It was another day of scorching heat for the southwestern U.S. Afternoon highs of 102 degrees in Downtown San Francisco, and 104 degrees at Monterrey, established all-time records. The high of 101 degrees at San Jose was a record for October. Sacramento tied their record for October for the third time in the month, with a reading of 102 degrees. The high for the nation was 111 degrees at San Luis Obispo and Palm Springs. Twenty cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Knoxville TN with a reading of 34 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Thirteen cities in the central U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Duluth MN with a reading of 21 degrees. Goodland KS reported an afternoon high of 39 degrees. Showers over Upper Michigan produced an inch of snow at Marquette. (The National Weather Summary)

1995: After accelerating northward out of the Gulf of Mexico, Opal moved quickly through the Eastern United States. Despite hundreds of miles of travel from the Gulf of Mexico, gale force winds blew through western Virginia. Winds sustained at 40 mph, with gusts past 60 mph, blew down trees mainly above 2000 feet elevation in the Shenandoah Valley and along the Allegheny Plateau. Dozens of trees were blown down along Skyline Drive in Page and Warren counties. In Waynesboro, a canopy over a service station was ripped off. South Winchester and Elkton saw 2600 homes and businesses without power as lines were downed by the winds. Two tornadoes struck the tidewater. One touched down at West Point airport in New Kent county. It tore the roof off a hangar, destroying a small airplane and damaging four others. (Ref. Hurricane Opal)


1998: A big three-day snowstorm came to an end over the Black Hills in South Dakota. Galena was buried under 48 inches of snow and Lead checked in with 42.1 inches. Rain and embedded thunderstorms dumped a large area of 4 to 10 inches of rain producing widespread flooding. Most of the flooding was confined to low areas along creeks and highways. The hardest hit areas were in southeast Kansas and west central and central Missouri. Numerous highways were closed due to high water. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2005: North Dakota: After sweating through 90 °F plus heat at month's onset, North Dakotans see heavy snow fall across much of the state. Observers report 12 inches of snow around Halliday and 10 inches at Fairfield, north of Belfield in Billings County. Minot measures 8-10 inches. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2010: Sviolent hail storm taken on Tuesday, Oct. 5th around 59th Ave. & Cactus in Phoenix Severe thunderstorms produced the largest hail ever measured in Phoenix, Arizona, and Maricopa County. Hailstones up to 3 inches in diameter caused extensive damage. The largest known hailstone to fall in in the state of Arizona (back to 1950) was 4.5 inches in diameter. This record hail fell in Mayer on September 20, 1995. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2012 Accord Pub. 2011, USA)
 

2010: Large hail pounded Phoenix, Arizona, causing nearly $3 billion in damage. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Phoenix, Arizona.

[SACRUS]

 

1941 records seem intact today by a good 5 - 7 degrees.

[Sundog]

19 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Low of 56. 85 maybe today 

Already in the mid to upper 70s here

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

either trend to a rainstorm or go away thx

another cutoff under thrb ridge