Tropical Depression Nine

[wthrmn654]

12z euro ai, nearly a cap cod landfall with a slow crawl north. 

 

[Jtm12180]

9 minutes ago, RaleighNC said:

Tell you what. You come take your time in the barrel for a few late summers/early falls and then let us know how unfortunate it is that you don't get hit. 

exactly!!!!!!!!!  

[Rd9108]

Im totally trolling when I say OTS. What I will say is we've seen tropical systems have a mind of their own and drift further west than guidance. I wouldn't take any model verbatim.

[cptcatz]

Not sure it's a tropical cyclone anymore lol. Where did the center go?

[wthrmn654]

The curve to north near end of run Are increasing.

 

[yoda]

 

[yoda]

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092025
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
 
The organization of the depression has not changed much since this 
morning. Some deep convection has flared up this afternoon near the 
estimated center, which appears broad in the 850-mb flight-level 
wind data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. The earlier 
scatterometer winds and more recent aircraft data do not suggest the 
system has intensified. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for 
this advisory.

The center appears to be slightly south and west of previous 
estimates, with an uncertain initial motion of 315/4 kt. Over the 
next couple of days, the system should turn more north-northwestward 
within the flow between an upper trough over the southeast U.S. and 
a subtropical ridge over the Atlantic. This forecast brings the 
depression over the central and northwestern Bahamas through early 
Monday, then toward the southeast U.S. coast by Tuesday. The NHC 
track forecast is very similar to the previous one, with only a 
slight nudge westward based on the initial position adjustments 
during the day. Warm waters and strong upper-level divergence should 
promote strengthening during the next few days, but this could be 
tempered by moderate southerly shear over the system from an 
upper-level trough. The NHC intensity forecast shows steady 
strengthening through early next week, with the system becoming a 
hurricane by 60 h. This prediction lies close to the latest IVCN and 
HCCA aids. 

There is still above-average uncertainty in the details of the 
long-range forecast. In general, the models agree that the presence 
of Hurricane Humberto to the east will result in a weakening of the 
prevailing steering currents, causing the system to slow down and 
meander near the southeast U.S. coast on Tuesday. While the chances 
of a landfall appear lower than yesterday, there are still some 
hurricane regional models and ensemble solutions that show this 
possibility. Given the expected asymmetric storm structure, a risk 
of significant heavy rainfall, storm surge, and wind impacts exists 
for the southeast U.S. coast even if the storm center remains 
offshore. The increased track spread at 96-120 h is related to 
whether the system feels the effects of an amplifying upper-level 
trough behind Humberto over the western Atlantic. While many global 
models show a sharp eastward turn and acceleration away from land, 
the system fails to be captured by the trough in the 12z ECMWF and 
lingers offshore. The NHC track forecast at days 4-5 maintains a 
consensus approach and shows a slower eastward motion, but future 
track adjustments are likely as confidence increases. The system may 
be in close proximity to fronts by the end of the period, so 
extratropical transition could begin around or shortly after day 5.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The depression is expected to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas
through Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are also possible
along portions of the east coast of central Florida beginning
Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
 
2. Rainfall will continue to impact eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, 
Jamaica, and the Bahamas through the weekend, which will likely 
produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are possible in the 
higher terrain. 
 
3. There is a significant threat of heavy rainfall early next week 
from portions of the east coast of Florida northward into the 
Carolinas, which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding. 
 
4. The depression is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity 
when it is closest to the southeast U.S. coast early next week, 
where there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts. Although it 
is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts, 
residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and 
ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 22.2N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 23.3N  77.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 24.9N  77.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 26.7N  78.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 28.5N  78.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 30.0N  78.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 30.8N  78.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 31.1N  76.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 31.5N  74.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

[MJO812]

Gfs is further offshore 

[wthrmn654]

Watch entire gfs run... it comes north after Bermuda area and seems to be deciding where to go.. north east should be watching in case this becomes a thing. 

[blueheels2]

I’m disappointed I wanted to get a good soaking rain out of this.

[wthrmn654]

Strangely quiet here....

[MDsnowPRO]

Just now, wthrmn654 said:

Strangely quiet here....

People waiting patiently for the jog back west in the late night model runs. 

[Drummer]

1 hour ago, blueheels2 said:

I’m disappointed I wanted to get a good soaking rain out of this.

Same - specifically and only over the grounds of the US Whitewater Center in CLT so that I don't have to run a 50k trail race.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, blueheels2 said:

I’m disappointed I wanted to get a good soaking rain out of this.

Strange stall

[WxWatcher007]

Although the convection is weak and disorganized, recon is now showing a much more well defined circulation, which if it holds will allow for gradual organization. 

Note how much tighter the circulation is in the image above, compared to some of the recon images posted earlier. You can also see a pocket of slightly stronger winds on the far eastern side of the system. Below you can see how the circulation is becoming better organized. Slowly. 

Convection is weak, but there has been some firing of stronger thunderstorms near the center. 

Shear has remained an issue through the day, but analysis shows that the shear may be abating, especially near the center. 

TD9 is in one of the best thermal environments in the entire Atlantic, so if it can start generating deep convection over its tightening center it should gradually intensify. 

While I am posting the SHIPS here, there looks to have been a bit of an uptick from hurricane guidance in overall intensity over the coming days. That's something we'll need to pay attention to, with the caveat that the trough and possible dry air will continue to lurk and will likely put a cap on intensity. 

 

Now for the track. There is increasing confidence that future Imelda will in fact turn away from the SE coast, but there is still a lot of uncertainty on how close the center gets to the coast and critically, the speed of the turn. Most guidance now turns the system away from the coast and accelerates it east into an Humberto created weakness. 

But within this evolving track forecast there are two diverging camps. The first, and most numerous, is one that easily follows Humberto out to sea. The second, which is led by the Euro and Euro AI to an extent, turns the system more slowly and allows a ridge to build over the top and close the escape route. The result is Imelda being turned back toward the coast. 

There aren't a lot of members that are held back, but the ones that do are pretty strong. 

So while it very well may be the case that this does turn and accelerate out to sea, there's still uncertainty. Remember, the models struggled with this inside of 100 hours. I'm not sure we should be locking in anything 5+ days out yet. Additional recon and finally having a well defined center should help with both track and intensity guidance. 

Finally, just because this is likely to stay offshore initially, that doesn't mean no impacts. TS force winds, coastal flooding, and flash flooding are still squarely hazards for coastal FL, GA, and the Carolinas. Just slight track changes could make the flood threat more impactful along the coast. 

[Wannabehippie]

Base on my amateur eyes, and satellite photos, Nine's center looks very broad and disorganized right now. There is a closed low, but it is still a big mess. Wind shear seems to have let up a bit, but still exists. Plus Humberto is not far away, moving WNW at 10mph, at : 22.9°N 61.1°W. 

Nine is at Location: 22.4°N 76.5°W moving NW at 5mph. Can someone confirm on latest satellite that it looks more like NNW at this time as the cold front to the north west is blocking it from getting to the coast. 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Base on my amateur eyes, and satellite photos, Nine's center looks very broad and disorganized right now. There is a closed low, but it is still a big mess. Wind shear seems to have let up a bit, but still exists. Plus Humberto is not far away, moving WNW at 10mph, at : 22.9°N 61.1°W. 

Nine is at Location: 22.4°N 76.5°W moving NW at 5mph. Can someone confirm on latest satellite that it looks more like NNW at this time as the cold front to the north west is blocking it from getting to the coast. 

 

 

I don’t think it’s broad looking at the sharper wind shifts on recon, but it is weak—probably because it’s only now starting to tighten up and convection is limited. 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Base on my amateur eyes, and satellite photos, Nine's center looks very broad and disorganized right now. There is a closed low, but it is still a big mess. Wind shear seems to have let up a bit, but still exists. Plus Humberto is not far away, moving WNW at 10mph, at : 22.9°N 61.1°W. 

Nine is at Location: 22.4°N 76.5°W moving NW at 5mph. Can someone confirm on latest satellite that it looks more like NNW at this time as the cold front to the north west is blocking it from getting to the coast. 

 

 

Per recon, it hasn’t been moving NNW. Actually, there apparently was just a reformation of the weak center slightly to the SE per this. Overall, it has moved very little today so far:

[Coach McGuirk]

I still think nobody really knows what this thing is going to do.  The 12z Euro was like east then west then east again, it didn't know what to do. 

[wthrmn654]

If the ai models pan out,  the entire east coast needs to be on alert from Carolinas to the north east.....

[wthrmn654]

Just saw the 18z Google ensembles there looks to be about 6 or more runs that hang back and go up the east coast towards the north east...

The 18z Google models shifted west for the up the coast ones 12z had a lot going to cape cod. 

 

Majority go east, however,  majority now go, north north east versus nearly due east.

[Coach McGuirk]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Just saw the 18z Google ensembles there looks to be about 6 or more runs that hang back and go up the east coast towards the north east...

The 18z Google models shifted west for the up the coast ones 12z had a lot going to cape cod. 

 

Majority go east, however,  majority now go, north north east versus nearly due east.

Link?

[wthrmn654]

For entertainment,  I highly suggest gong and watching what the nam 12k does with the 2 storms. 

Wild what it does. 

[wthrmn654]

Just now, Coach McGuirk said:

Link?

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/genc.html

[wthrmn654]

Or,  enable everything but the euro stuff to see all the Google ideas,  by going to menu button

https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab

[Coach McGuirk]

4 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Or,  enable everything but the euro stuff to see all the Google ideas,  by going to menu button

https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab

Thanks, interesting. 

[GaWx]

Hardly moving!

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092025
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
 
...DEPRESSION MEANDERING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT DAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 76.7W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[GaWx]

Note the bolded: the slower speed of movement has increased the chance of it staying away from the US:

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092025
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
 
The depression this evening remains fairly disorganized, with 
convection mainly oriented in a north-south fashion with only a 
hint of banding on the northern side. A NOAA-P3 aircraft that 
has been flying through the system only found a peak 700 mb flight 
level wind of 34 kt about 60 n mi away from the center. Tail Doppler 
Radar (TDR) analysis from the aircraft also shows the center is 
quite broad at the 1 km level with the mid-level center tilted to 
the south with height. Based on the plane data, the initial 
intensity remains 30 kt this advisory, which is a little under the 
various satellite-based estimates, but close to a recently 
received scatterometer pass which had a peak wind of 31 kt. 

Aircraft fixes both at 700 mb and from the TDR analysis shows the 
cyclone is meandering right now, with a best guess at a motion of 
310/2 kt. Over the next couple of days, the system should turn 
north-northwestward with a somewhat faster forward motion, moving 
within the flow between an upper trough over the southeast U.S. and 
a subtropical ridge over the Atlantic. This forecast brings the 
depression over the central and northwestern Bahamas through early 
Monday, then toward the southeast U.S. coast by Tuesday. It is 
notable to point out the system has been moving slower than 
anticipated over the last 12-24 hours, and this could have 
significant implications on its ultimate track. Even in the first 
48 hours of the track, there is quite a bit of spread in the 
north-south direction in both the deterministic and ensemble model 
guidance. Faster tracks appear to interact more with the upper-level 
trough to the west, resulting in a track closer to the Carolina 
coastline, while slower tracks largely miss a direct interaction 
with this feature, and turn sharply east faster as Hurricane 
Humberto approaches from the east, eroding the mid-level ridging 
steering TD9 northward. Because it has been moving slower than 
expected, its becoming more likely its ultimate track will fall in 
the slower and sharper east camp. In response, the overall track 
guidance this cycle shifted slower and further east, and the NHC 
track forecast was shifted in that direction. The latest track 
roughly splits the difference between the ECMWF and GFS tracks, and 
lies quite close to the HCCA consensus aid, but still not as far 
south and east as the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). 

The depression is now showing signs of intensification yet, with a 
broad diffuse structure on aircraft observations persisting. 
However, the intensity guidance is insistent that deep central 
convection will soon form near the center, helping to tighten up the 
surface wind field. While the cyclone will have some southerly shear 
to deal with, it does not appear to be prohibitively strong, only 
15-20 kt for the next 48 hours in both the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS 
guidance. That, combined with warm 29-30 C sea-surface temperatures 
should promote steady intensification once a central core develops, 
and the NHC intensity forecast was nudged up a little higher showing 
a 70 kt peak in 48 hours. After this period is where the intensity 
forecast gets tricky. The large spread in north-south tracks also 
has a significant impact on the amount of shear the system will face 
in the 48-96 hour time-frame. Solutions that are further south have 
less shear to contend with and are generally stronger. For now, the 
latest intensity forecast will cap the peak intensity at 70 kt 
through the end of the forecast, close to the HCCA intensity 
guidance, but this could be conservative if the track shifts further 
south and east. The system could also interact with a baroclinic 
zone towards the end of the forecast, but because the forecast track 
remains over warm waters at day 5, extratropical transition won't be 
shown quite yet. 

Even if this further offshore track pans out, the wind field is 
expected to expand quite a bit, and given the expected storm 
structure, a risk of significant heavy rainfall, storm surge, and 
wind impacts is still possible for the southeast U.S. coast even if 
the storm center remains offshore.

KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The depression is expected to strengthen and bring tropical storm
conditions to portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas
through Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are also possible
along portions of the east coast of central Florida beginning
Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
 
2. Rainfall will continue to impact eastern Cuba and the Bahamas 
through the weekend, which will likely produce flash and urban 
flooding. Mudslides are possible in the higher terrain.
 
3. There is a significant threat of heavy rainfall early next week
from portions of the east coast of Florida northward into the
Carolinas, which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding.
 
4. The depression is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity
when it is closest to the southeast U.S. coast early next week,
where there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts. Although it
is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of impacts,
residents should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and
ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 22.4N  76.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 23.6N  77.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 25.5N  77.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 27.3N  77.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 28.7N  78.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  30/1200Z 29.9N  78.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 30.4N  77.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  02/0000Z 31.0N  75.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  03/0000Z 31.5N  71.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

[wthrmn654]

Wooo..... didn't notice this but look what the latest consensus models suggest

.. look at that bank west near the end. Can't tell if that's a blooper or fluke

[shaggy]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Hardly moving!

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092025
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
 
...DEPRESSION MEANDERING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CUBA AND
THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT DAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 76.7W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Yeah no models had this slow motion early on which is why they all showed the ULL pulling it onshore Monday night. At this point its so slow hunberto might be north east of it by the time it gets to the northern Bahamas amd yank it due east from there. 

Pretty bad performance by the gfs and euro on this one