Coach McGuirk Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago This could be a dud or something huge or in-between. I think it will rapidly form into a cat 3 but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago One thing that's clearly going throw a wrench in recent modeling..... humberto likely going be a Cat 3 or 4 tomorrow and all of a sudden.... may explain models now showing further east stall and some not coming ashore at all......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago This is truly remarkable uncertainty on the guidance given how close we could be to a landfall. The GFS follows what some ensemble camps have hinted at, but the outcome verbatim is just radically different in impacts and timing compared to recent op runs. This is a very tough system for emergency managers that need to prepare people to take action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 17 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: One thing that's clearly going throw a wrench in recent modeling..... humberto likely going be a Cat 3 or 4 tomorrow and all of a sudden.... may explain models now showing further east stall and some not coming ashore at all......... I think it has a lot more to do with slower development of Imelda and slower speed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is truly remarkable uncertainty on the guidance given how close we could be to a landfall. The GFS follows what some ensemble camps have hinted at, but the outcome verbatim is just radically different in impacts and timing compared to recent op runs. This is a very tough system for emergency managers that need to prepare people to take action. Agreed. I work at FDEM as one of the mets and we've been trying our best to communicate the uncertainty in the forecast at the 3-4 day range. But at this point, most people expect a solid "answer". Not expecting any direct impacts from Imelda here, but are keeping our Florida East Coast partners well informed. On another note, South Carolina has just declared a state of emergency 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: I think it has a lot more to do with slower development of Imelda and slower speed Well that was a rough Summary from a professional meteorologist I see online before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago It's nothing right now, nobody knows what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 18zgfs no landfall!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago If this “busts” I hope the public understands how tough a forecast this is and the difference between a major impact vs a non event is literally anyone’s guess right now. Good for South Carolina being proactive 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 18z GFS is bizarre. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Gefs supports the no landfall the op showed. This time around there showing how strong humberto is with pressures in the 900s versus 1000+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Icon starts going up coast by florida then gets pulled towards humberto... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago No landfall would be a big win for the Euro AI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: No landfall would be a big win for the Euro AI Euro ai shows low pressures for humberto at the 12z time so we'll see how it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago One thing that is constant on the models all of them is a blocking area of high pressure streaming down from Eastern Canada and off the New England Coast. Both of these systems Humberto and Imelda have no chance of getting north of say Outer Banks points northward. Looks like 18z GFS just changes everything and the westerlies take over along the East Coast and send everything packing up and heading out to sea it is plausible I suppose. I would say at this juncture that the Outer Banks points north are out of the woods from direct impacts, but we could be setting the stage for rough surf and waves from the systems themselves and also the tight pressure gradient from the high up north and the lows down south. Honestly these blocking highs up the coast in the Mid-Atlantic and to SE Canada and New England have been a steady feature going back to July and August. I would not let your guard down Florida to say Cape Fear NC and head any warnings as Neuman eluded to early. Looks like the blocking gates to the east will open to let Imelda to follow Humberto right out to sea as the blocking comes down from the north and the systems bounce east quite plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 18z Euro keeps the center offshore and heading back south at hr 132 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 45 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 18z Euro keeps the center offshore and heading back south at hr 132 18Z Icon remained OTS. If this ends up not hitting the US, keep in mind that both the Icon and UKMET haven’t had even one run so far with anything even that close to a landfall. Those two models were the best with Ian by the way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago I've never been this involved in a tropical wave. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 26 minutes ago, GaWx said: 18Z Icon remained OTS. If this ends up not hitting the US, keep in mind that both the Icon and UKMET haven’t had even one run so far with anything even that close to a landfall. Those two models were the best with Ian by the way. It would be an enormous coup, especially considering where the ensembles were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago NWS put up a cone for potential 9nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/262347.shtml?cone#contents 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC US Geological Survice Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I've been telling people at work, "This could be South Carolina's Florence". Do you think that will verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago This maybe a big sike storm....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 0z hurricane models. More showing the stall and turn east motion now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4 minutes ago, NC US Geological Survice said: I've been telling people at work, "This could be South Carolina's Florence". Do you think that will verify? I said it could be the next Charlie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: This maybe a big sike storm....... That could be true too. Nobody knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-0909A-PTC09.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC US Geological Survice Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 13 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-0909A-PTC09.png Doesn't have its act together. I'm buying all the shares of OTS. All hail the A.I. modelz. (AND Icon/Ukie) Edit: i know there're a lot of solutions on the table. Just following the evening hype train right now. Til tmrw folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 13 minutes ago, NC US Geological Survice said: Doesn't have its act together. I'm buying all the shares of OTS. All hail the A.I. modelz. (AND Icon/Ukie) Edit: i know there're a lot of solutions on the table. Just following the evening hype train right now. Til tmrw folks. What's the A.I. modelz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Ai models won big with Erin track days before everyone jumped on board... . Icon took a big win imo on that storm as well, which is crazy to say lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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