Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,278
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyclam13
    Newest Member
    happyclam13
    Joined

Invest 94L—80% 2 day and 90% seven day odds of development


WxWatcher007
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, stormwatcherJ said:

I never like to hear the word "stall" when talking about a hurricane approaching the NC/SC coast. That's always the most catastrophic scenario. Rain, rain, more rain. 

Yeah that's worst case in many ways, especially if it's a strong TS or weak hurricane lost at sea near the coast.

Of course, this may be a nothingburger and we're all just b.s.'ing; let's not assume this will be a hurricane at any point, nevermind near NC/SC :)  

I'm suspicious of like 80% of the modeling beyond D4 at this point, but I'd expect a TS or weak 'cane approaching the Carolinas by then.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Gefs,imo doesn't look like much of anything and the storm kinda vanishes with the one to the east surviving going towards Bermuda... am I seeing it wrong or no? 

It smoothes out the pressure isobars  between all the solutions so when you have a spread in tracks you won't see the average storm track. Spaghetti plot:

94L_gefs_latest.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro ai has it stalled roughly long enough the the high to the north weakens and moves east,  allowing it to come up the coast, unfortunately close to the north east....

And,

Yes the Carolinas potentially get very bad conditions at is closest approach. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro shows serious flooding in NC and possibly VA/SC as the confluence in the NE stalls the storm out and helps draw moisture from Humberto. 

qpf_acc-imp.us_ma (45).png

I think regardless of track there’s going to be a flood risk maybe up to the Mid-Atlantic given the upper level setup. Hopefully not to this extent though. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 Based on the 12Z ops and individual GEFS/GEPS members, the best bet for the SE US to not get hit thanks to Fujiwhara is for 94L to not be moving too fast and thus never get N of Humberto’s latitude. Helping also would be for it to be significantly weaker than Humberto.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Oh, and the consensus tracks shifts way west at 12z. Of which will likely play a big part in the invest future plan of attack

For humberto

I would think this would actually be good news for the SE coast, since Humberto in all likelihood gets pulled out to sea eventually, the further west it is the more likely it is that Imelda gets pulled out with it

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I'd say this is going to get the potential tropical cyclone designation/forecast cone this evening, but I wouldn't blame the NHC if the held off as long as possible until they can get some better data

Not sure if it’d happen today as the 2pm TWO didn’t mention it, but maybe at 11pm and almost certainly tomorrow given it’s proximity to the islands. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 The 12Z EPS, while still scary for the SE US with ~60% hitting and ~50%+ of those hitting being strong TS+, isn’t quite as ominous as the 0Z, which had ~75% hitting the SE. About 40% of members are strongly affected by Fujiwhara with Humberto.

  • Like 2
  • sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Chadzachadam said:

I would think this would actually be good news for the SE coast, since Humberto in all likelihood gets pulled out to sea eventually, the further west it is the more likely it is that Imelda gets pulled out with it

But wouldn’t a further W track of Humberto mean a slower latitude gain, which would then mean a higher chance for 94L to get N of Humberto’s latitude and would thus reduce the chance for 94L to get pulled OTS by Humberto? I hope not but am wondering.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z EPS, while still scary for the SE US with ~60% hitting and ~50%+ of those hitting being strong TS+, isn’t quite as ominous as the 0Z, which had ~75% hitting the SE. About 40% of members are strongly affected by Fujiwhara with Humberto.

Hammering home the point that—for anyone lurking—even with the trend from the Euro and GFS, there is still a **high** amount of uncertainty on eventual track and intensity. Nothing is locked in yet. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

But wouldn’t a further W track of Humberto mean a slower latitude gain, which would then mean a higher chance for 94L to get N of Humberto’s latitude and would thus reduce the chance for 94L to get pulled OTS by Humberto? I hope not but am wondering.

True, it might be kind of a wash since really the proximity is what matters and slower latitude gain for Humberto cancels out the greater proximity from Humberto being further west. Some of the crazy-looking model solutions where Imelda gets right to the coast, cuts East, then loops back around as Humberto races out to sea actually do kind of make sense and would almost certainly bring serious flooding to the Carolinas

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm getting stron Joaquin vibes from this one. Except Joaquin was strong when passing through the Bahamas, but then it stalled as it passed through Bahamas and then kicked out to see, but it's moisture flooded the Carolinas big time. With Humberto nearby, I think that would act as a mechanism to tug Imelda out to sea. However, with Joaquin, there was a trough heading through the east US and Joaquin stalled over Bahamas which allowed trough to arrive in time to bring it out to sea. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 The MJO for 9/27 through 10/3 or 10/4 is again being forecasted by GEFS and EPS to be in phase 2, which is about tied for the most dangerous phase along with 8 for Conus H landfalls and by a large margin has been the most dangerous for Conus MH landfalls (inside or outside the circle).

MH Conus landfalls since 1974 during phase 2
-Ida (2021)
-Michael (2018)
-Irma (2017)
-Harvey (2017)
-Ivan (2004)
-Bret (1999)
-Emily (1993)
-Hugo (1989)
-Frederic (1979)
-Eloise (1975)
-Carmen (1974)

 That’s 11 of 29 (38%) of all Conus MH hits since 1974 just during phase 2. These were all during Jul-Oct. During Jul-Oct 1974-2024, 16% of days were in phase 2. So, even after taking into account the fact that the # of days in phase 2 has been about the largest of any one phase along with phase 1, the 38% of all MH hits is still very high. If phase 2 were instead a neutral influence, one would expect the # of MH hits during phase 2 to be only ~3-5.

GEFS IMG_4651.png.d3fb3a75cca12480b313a0f2bd912c98.png

 

EPS

IMG_4637.png.5ca9f4c0fb060908cb75024f72e4d232.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Chadzachadam said:

True, it might be kind of a wash since really the proximity is what matters and slower latitude gain for Humberto cancels out the greater proximity from Humberto being further west. Some of the crazy-looking model solutions where Imelda gets right to the coast, cuts East, then loops back around as Humberto races out to sea actually do kind of make sense and would almost certainly bring serious flooding to the Carolinas

And possibly bring threats further north depending how long it stalls. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...