September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ this part. about 0.10. (NOT zero).

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

was hoping for sometime in october....

You must like turning on your heat, I don't even want to think about doing that before November

[donsutherland1]

The system responsible for today's showers and periods of rain will slowly move away from the region tonight and tomorrow. As a result, clouds will break tomorrow morning and a partly to mostly sunny afternoon will follow.

Temperatures will return to the upper 70s tomorrow and then rise further into the lower 80s on Friday. The warmer spots could see some middle 80s on Friday. Cooler air will return for the weekend with another warmup possible starting early next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn.

The SOI was +4.93 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.179 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.1° (0.1° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[anthonymm]

3 hours ago, nycwinter said:

when will a real patter change happen to a prolonged stretch of cooler 50's type weather....

Definitely not any time within the next 3 weeks.

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:
 

 

ISP: 74
PHL: 73
LGA: 72
JFK: 72
TEB: 71
EWR: 70
TTN: 70
New Brnwck: 70
NYC: 70
ACY: 69
BLM: 66

 

[lee59]

Total rain here today 0.00 inches. Now a week of dry weather coming up

[bluewave]

Top down drought with all the record warmth and blocking in Canada forced this system too far to our south. Places like JFK have had their 7 driest September to September period. They are down 11.3” of precipitation over the last year at only 31.99”.

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1966-09-16	27.41	0
2	1985-09-16	29.11	0
3	1965-09-16	30.62	0
4	1970-09-16	30.92	0
5	1995-09-16	31.41	0
6	2022-09-16	31.84	0
7	2025-09-16	31.99	0
8	2002-09-16	33.14	0
9	1954-09-16	33.40	19
10	1981-09-16	33.42	0

[MANDA]

Had additional showers last evening that helped get the total up to .19".  I'll take it as another 7 day stretch of dry weather is ahead.

[bluewave]

20 hours ago, anthonymm said:

80s type snowfall pattern too, but even less.

The 1980s snowfall averaged about 6” higher than the last 7 seasons.

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	T	0.1	2.6	8.2	5.9	2.7	1.0	20.4
1979-1980	T	0.0	2.5	3.0	2.3	3.2	T	11.0
1980-1981	0.0	0.2	1.7	7.7	T	6.9	0.0	16.5
1981-1982	0.0	T	3.1	12.5	0.8	0.3	8.2	24.9
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	4.8	1.0	24.7	0.1	1.5	32.1
1983-1984	0.0	T	1.2	9.9	T	10.9	T	22.0
1984-1985	0.0	T	5.5	12.4	9.0	0.4	T	27.3
1985-1986	0.0	T	2.8	3.0	13.5	T	T	19.3
1986-1987	0.0	0.4	1.0	11.8	7.9	2.0	0.0	23.1
1987-1988	0.0	0.4	3.0	15.7	0.5	0.1	0.0	19.7
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	0.7	4.7	0.1	2.7	0.0	8.2

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Mean	0.0	0.7	1.8	3.7	7.3	1.0	T	14.5
2024-2025	0.0	0.0	3.0	2.5	6.5	0.0	0.0	12.0
2023-2024	0.0	T	T	2.4	10.4	T	0.0	12.8
2022-2023	0.0	T	T	T	1.7	0.4	0.0	2.1
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.2	17.8	3.2	0.5	0.0	21.7
2020-2021	0.0	0.0	7.2	0.9	26.4	T	T	34.5
2019-2020	0.0	T	1.9	1.9	T	T	T	3.8
2018-2019	0.0	4.8	T	0.7	3.1	6.1	0.0	14.7

 

[FPizz]

.25" yesterday, I'll take it.

 

[wdrag]

CoCoRaHs after 6A 9/17/25. Isolated near 2" Wall Township in Monmouth.