steve392 Posted September 16, 2025 Share Posted September 16, 2025 74, overcast with a nice cool breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 16, 2025 Share Posted September 16, 2025 So far, rainfall is running above the guidance in a number of locations through 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 16, 2025 Share Posted September 16, 2025 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: This feels like winter and wondering where the cut off will be lol. Either way, if this kind of system happens in the winter, there will be a lot of hair being pulled out watching ACY get 20 inches of snow while this area probably wouldn't even reach 6 inches. Whether we get .10 or .50 most people probably won’t notice since it will be rain. Many times models are off by around .5 or more especially during the warm season when convection is involved. But everyone notices the difference between 1” and 5” when snow is involved. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 16, 2025 Share Posted September 16, 2025 A strong nor'easter was bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to parts of the Middle Atlantic region late this afternoon. Through 4 pm, Norfolk had picked up 2.14" of rain. The wind has gusted to 44 mph there. This storm will bring some showers and periods of rain tomorrow into Thursday. The Delmarva and Jersey Shore will see the heaviest amounts. There, 1.00" or above amounts are likely. The temperature will top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s tomorrow. Readings will likely return to the upper 70s on Thursday and the lower 80s on Friday. Cooler air will return for the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was -2.20 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.002 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.9° (0.3° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 16, 2025 Share Posted September 16, 2025 looks like a tropical or subtropical storm off the VA capes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted September 16, 2025 Share Posted September 16, 2025 2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: Here is the Iowa snowstorm. Must have been a wicked bomb cyclone. Look at the track of that low pressure center. Chicago --> La Crosse, Wisconsin, before drifting southwest into Iowa. Oddly enough, while that was happening, we were having the warmest September on record here. September 1881 remains the warmest September on record in some places, like PHL. But many places in the Eastern US had a snowstorm on April 19-20, 1983 (Boston May 9-10, 1977), which is a higher sun angle than September 16. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted September 16, 2025 Share Posted September 16, 2025 10 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Oddly enough, while that was happening, we were having the warmest September on record here. September 1881 remains the warmest September on record in some places, like PHL. But many places in the Eastern US had a snowstorm on April 19-20, 1983 (Boston May 9-10, 1977), which is a higher sun angle than September 16. The difference is the crysophere can still be in place in large swaths of Canada in April whereas it's nowhere to be found in mid September unless you're on the Arctic Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted September 16, 2025 Share Posted September 16, 2025 Is this rain actually going to make it to tge nyc area? Trying to decide if I need to water my hydrangeas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 16, 2025 Share Posted September 16, 2025 46 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Oddly enough, while that was happening, we were having the warmest September on record here. September 1881 remains the warmest September on record in some places, like PHL. But many places in the Eastern US had a snowstorm on April 19-20, 1983 (Boston May 9-10, 1977), which is a higher sun angle than September 16. Was September 1881 the month that NYC had its first and also latest 100+ degree temperature on record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 16, 2025 Share Posted September 16, 2025 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Was September 1881 the month that NYC had its first and also latest 100+ degree temperature on record? Yes Sep 7th 101 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 16, 2025 Share Posted September 16, 2025 18 minutes ago, steve392 said: Is this rain actually going to make it to tge nyc area? Trying to decide if I need to water my hydrangeas. Water them heavily then the rain will arrive 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 17, 2025 Share Posted September 17, 2025 75 today. Beautiful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 17, 2025 Share Posted September 17, 2025 Highs: PHL: 78 EWR: 77 New Brnswck: 76 ISP: 76 JFK: 76 TEB: 75 LGA: 74 NYC: 74 TTN: 74 BLM: 71 ACY: 71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 17, 2025 Share Posted September 17, 2025 74 the high here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted September 17, 2025 Share Posted September 17, 2025 4 hours ago, steve392 said: Is this rain actually going to make it to tge nyc area? Trying to decide if I need to water my hydrangeas. My guess is no, and especially not anywhere north of there. Maybe some sprinkles, light showers to wet the ground, that's probably it, nothing widespread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 17, 2025 Share Posted September 17, 2025 Latest HREF: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2025 Share Posted September 17, 2025 18 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks Chris, do the models also have warmth on Thursday now, so now it's low 80s on both Thursday and Friday rather than upper 80s on Friday? Friday could be the warmest day at JFK since 8-25 since we are finally getting an offshore flow. Moderate dewpoints and steep low level lapse rates. So mid 80s are possible from the forecast soundings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 17, 2025 Share Posted September 17, 2025 Radar not looking impressive. Probably waves of mist on stiff easterly wind for the most part here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2025 Share Posted September 17, 2025 Portions of the Northeast could see more drought expansion with the update tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 17, 2025 Share Posted September 17, 2025 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Portions of the Northeast could see more drought expansion with the update tomorrow. Been absolutely dry as a bone in NNE. Might see extreme drought posted soon. Selfishly for the winter I want that to continue (heavy precip there means rain here 99% of the time) but it’s sorely needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2025 Share Posted September 17, 2025 7 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Been absolutely dry as a bone in NNE. Might see extreme drought posted soon. Selfishly for the winter I want that to continue (heavy precip there means rain here 99% of the time) but it’s sorely needed. Having this happen two falls in a row makes me think something might have changed at least for the near term precipitation around here. But it has only been a year and things can flip back to wetter again. This top down warming and drying from Canada is something new for us though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted September 17, 2025 Share Posted September 17, 2025 Oh look, the sun is out again. Love this weather, but I was jonesing for an overcast, rainy day. Next time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted September 17, 2025 Author Share Posted September 17, 2025 Lost confidence in any meaningful rain near NYS/NJ border and even elsewhere. Pattern has not induced my expectations this morning in NJ/LI. Could be zero up here in far nw NJ/se NYS unless something comes in off the ocean but right now, just not seeing it. Modeling seems too heavy on our northern fringe I80 northward but have my fingers crossed something gets going by early afternoon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 17, 2025 Share Posted September 17, 2025 66 / 58 cloudy. Offshore cut off ULL spins around. NNE/NE flow today, steadiest and heaviest rains in SNJ and staying focused there with light / scattered showers , rain - drizzle north as the systems pulls sway. Clearing out and warming up Thu/ Fri ahead of a front Friday evening (dry). Cooler but dry / nice weekend. Overall warmer from Monday and beyond. Another low under the ridge cuts off next week to our west but the next chance of rain later next week, overall warm. 9/17 - 9/18 : clouds - showers , breezy - clears 9/18 9/18- 9/19: Warm up 80s (warmest spots to mid/upper 80s on Friday ahead of front 9/20 - 21 : Cooler / but dry weekend 9/21 - Beyond : Warmer overll cut off low may come east by the 25th with next rain chances otherwise dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted September 17, 2025 Share Posted September 17, 2025 On 9/14/2025 at 9:32 PM, donsutherland1 said: Areas for which I have data: Don, I'm curious where you pull your data? Is it accessible to anyone? If it's intuitive enough, I want to play around with the numbers some more for my area. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 17, 2025 Share Posted September 17, 2025 Not including this month yet but since last September, 5 months have had under 2" of rain here. 12 month precip totals getting down into the upper 20's inch range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 17, 2025 Share Posted September 17, 2025 Looks like this low just vertically stacked so it's spinning/raining itself out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 17, 2025 Share Posted September 17, 2025 Top 10 driest September to September period for many stations in the Northeast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 17, 2025 Share Posted September 17, 2025 never trust a deamplifying system running into dry air 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 17, 2025 Share Posted September 17, 2025 2 hours ago, Picard said: Don, I'm curious where you pull your data? Is it accessible to anyone? If it's intuitive enough, I want to play around with the numbers some more for my area. Thx. Picard, My data comes mainly from: https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/ I periodically use teleconnections data: https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/ and Climate Data: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/ Most of this data can readily be downloaded or converted into .CSV and .XLSX files 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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