O'Brother Septorcher

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Supposed to have a mantown weekend in Fryeburg on the Saco later this month. Will there even be water in it?

Sounds like Sacoback River?

[Go Kart Mozart]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Supposed to have a mantown weekend in Fryeburg on the Saco later this month. Will there even be water in it?

There will be water but it will be thick with sausages.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sounds like Sacoback River?

 

8 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

There will be water but it will be thick with sausages.

   Love it.

[dendrite]

Fryeburg fair?

[tamarack]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Supposed to have a mantown weekend in Fryeburg on the Saco later this month. Will there even be water in it?

Dragging canoes is such fun, especially when they're loaded with duffle, food and drink.  Learned all about that on Allagash Stream going to (and 4 days later, dragging back from) Allagash Lake.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Fryeburg fair?

We usually go camping around that time, but one of the guys has a friend with a house on the Saco. May just rent it and go canoeing.

We used to go there and on the Androscoggin, but haven't recently. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Dragging canoes is such fun, especially when they're loaded with duffle, food and drink.  Learned all about that on Allagash Stream going to (and 4 days later, dragging back from) Allagash Lake.

Yeah hopefully we get some rain up there. 

[dryslot]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Supposed to have a mantown weekend in Fryeburg on the Saco later this month. Will there even be water in it?

NO

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah hopefully we get some rain up there. 

Going to need a lot of it, Everything up here is way down.

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Even in September the coastline isn’t favored for any severe tomorrow..Are there ever scenarios where they don’t weaken and die out before they get here?

The coast is never really "favored" versus interior, but the best time of year is typically Aug/early Sept. for coastal areas lol

[dendrite]

21 minutes ago, dryslot said:

NO

Not after Lava and Pope are done watering their grass

[kdxken]

 

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not after Lava and Pope are done watering their grass

I would bet there's not even a trickle going thru there right now.

[Prismshine Productions]

0.30” here.   Big ‘un

Same, .3 here

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[Torch Tiger]

Sniffed this out firstly on Monday!  Some knew

   ...Northeast...
   A wave of low pressure is forecast to develop over eastern PA early
   in the day, translating northeastward along the front and into ME by
   late afternoon. Stronger heating and steep low-level lapse rates
   should develop from VA into eastern PA/NJ and into interior southern
   New England, with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg as an areal average.

   As the warm air mass develops and accelerates north ahead of the
   cold front, both instability and shear parameter space will become
   favorable for severe storms, including supercell potential. A line
   of storms is expected by 17 to 18Z, from eastern PA toward the
   Hudson Valley, expanding N/S and pushing east through the afternoon.
   Given 40-50 kt effective deep-layer shear and enhanced low-level
   shear with the midday surface theta-e surge, the initial storm mode
   may be cellular along the boundary, with a brief tornado or two
   possible along with some hail. Damaging winds are then most likely
   as outflows merge, and spread east across the remainder of the
   region through late afternoon.

[CoastalWx]

Meh

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just saw a video from a met from NH of the Saco.  She had never seen it so low. 

[weatherwiz]

One big difference tomorrow between the NAM and GFS is the difference in lapse rate in the lowest km. This could be the difference in getting damaging wind gusts that are more scattered/concentrated versus localized.  

[Typhoon Tip]

24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One big difference tomorrow between the NAM and GFS is the difference in lapse rate in the lowest km. This could be the difference in getting damaging wind gusts that are more scattered/concentrated versus localized.  

  any consideration to the nada model ?

[snowman21]

6 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

What are you guys seeing with these new temp/dewpoint sensors? I haven't seen much discussion on this, but they seem significantly cooler than the legacy sensors. And MUCH higher on humidity, at least in the overnight/mornings. All of a sudden, it's 100% humidity all the time at night around here. Never used to see ASOS throw up a 100% humidity before.

Current Events

I don't believe it's happened yet. Last I heard there was an issue at one of the test sites that caused them to pause the replacement plan, but that was like 9-10 months ago back when we weren't trying to cut NOAA's already meager funding in half.

EDIT: Looks like they have begun to roll some out to southern region stations.

EDIT2: On second look, it looks like they are done with half of the stations. Around here: BDL, HFD, IJD, ACK, BED, BOS, BVY, FIT, HYA, MVY, ORH, TAN, PVD, UUU, WST, and PYM.

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Not after Lava and Pope are done watering their grass

lol, I'm not risking the well. the "lawn" at this point can continue to hibernate

[TheClimateChanger]

29 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

I don't believe it's happened yet. Last I heard there was an issue at one of the test sites that caused them to pause the replacement plan, but that was like 9-10 months ago back when we weren't trying to cut NOAA's already meager funding in half.

EDIT: Looks like they have begun to roll some out to southern region stations.

EDIT2: On second look, it looks like they are done with half of the stations. Around here: BDL, HFD, IJD, ACK, BED, BOS, BVY, FIT, HYA, MVY, ORH, TAN, and PYM.

Yes, they haven't updated the spreadsheet since July 1, so I suspect they've swapped out most by this point. Just wondering if there's been any cool bias? I would argue, yes, but I'm wondering if anyone else has noticed this. It looks like the stations that were running on legacy sensors did much better for heat early on this summer versus the stations that had swapped in the new sensors.

I wonder if we are going to have to temper our expectations for heat. Might be difficult to beat some of these 90s-2020s records if the sensors were reading hot. We've grown accustomed to breaking 100-150 year old records left and right. May not be the case moving forward. It look decades of climate warming before the ASOS HO-1088 hygrothermometer was regularly beating out the extremely warm biased HO-83. Even to this day, many summer records still date to that short era from about 1986-1995 (summer has substantially less natural variability, so biases have an outsized impact on the rankings). Might be a similar story for these new Vaisala sensors.

[weatherwiz]

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

  any consideration to the nada model ?

?

[dendrite]

36 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

I don't believe it's happened yet. Last I heard there was an issue at one of the test sites that caused them to pause the replacement plan, but that was like 9-10 months ago back when we weren't trying to cut NOAA's already meager funding in half.

EDIT: Looks like they have begun to roll some out to southern region stations.

EDIT2: On second look, it looks like they are done with half of the stations. Around here: BDL, HFD, IJD, ACK, BED, BOS, BVY, FIT, HYA, MVY, ORH, TAN, PVD, UUU, WST, and PYM.

How’s the NNE rollout? We’ve been wiping the floor with SNE on temps on a daily basis

[snowman21]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

How’s the NNE rollout? We’ve been wiping the floor with SNE on temps on a daily basis

As far as I can tell just these so far: BGR, CAR, FVE, HUL, and MLT.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Just saw a video from a met from NH of the Saco.  She had never seen it so low. 

Saco at Cornish, Maine is at 269 cfs.  The listed low is 295 in 1995.

Sandy River at Mercer is 57.1 cfs.  Record low is 38.7 in 2002 while the 25th percentile is 86.  August 2002 Was the driest with 0.88", and Jan-August was 3rd lowest.   (Lowest J-A came the next year but Sept-Dec dumped more than 27", 57% of the year's total.)