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O'Brother Septorcher

Prismshine Productions
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Snowedin
Snowedin

Sad to see the hummers making their final preps for migration but always glad to be of assistance to the coolest birds in town. It’s a long haul across the GoM to Central America so every sip counts f

dendrite
dendrite

Release the Epstein files!

dryslot
dryslot

What a stretch it has been, One to tell the grandkids about.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Supposed to have a mantown weekend in Fryeburg on the Saco later this month. Will there even be water in it?

Dragging canoes is such fun, especially when they're loaded with duffle, food and drink.  Learned all about that on Allagash Stream going to (and 4 days later, dragging back from) Allagash Lake.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, dendrite said:

Fryeburg fair?

We usually go camping around that time, but one of the guys has a friend with a house on the Saco. May just rent it and go canoeing.

We used to go there and on the Androscoggin, but haven't recently. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Dragging canoes is such fun, especially when they're loaded with duffle, food and drink.  Learned all about that on Allagash Stream going to (and 4 days later, dragging back from) Allagash Lake.

Yeah hopefully we get some rain up there. 

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Torch Tiger

Torch Tiger

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Even in September the coastline isn’t favored for any severe tomorrow..Are there ever scenarios where they don’t weaken and die out before they get here?

The coast is never really "favored" versus interior, but the best time of year is typically Aug/early Sept. for coastal areas lol

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Torch Tiger

Torch Tiger

Posted
Posted

Sniffed this out firstly on Monday!  Some knew 

   ...Northeast...
   A wave of low pressure is forecast to develop over eastern PA early
   in the day, translating northeastward along the front and into ME by
   late afternoon. Stronger heating and steep low-level lapse rates
   should develop from VA into eastern PA/NJ and into interior southern
   New England, with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg as an areal average.

   As the warm air mass develops and accelerates north ahead of the
   cold front, both instability and shear parameter space will become
   favorable for severe storms, including supercell potential. A line
   of storms is expected by 17 to 18Z, from eastern PA toward the
   Hudson Valley, expanding N/S and pushing east through the afternoon.
   Given 40-50 kt effective deep-layer shear and enhanced low-level
   shear with the midday surface theta-e surge, the initial storm mode
   may be cellular along the boundary, with a brief tornado or two
   possible along with some hail. Damaging winds are then most likely
   as outflows merge, and spread east across the remainder of the
   region through late afternoon.
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

One big difference tomorrow between the NAM and GFS is the difference in lapse rate in the lowest km. This could be the difference in getting damaging wind gusts that are more scattered/concentrated versus localized.  

:blink:  any consideration to the nada model ?

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snowman21

snowman21

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

What are you guys seeing with these new temp/dewpoint sensors? I haven't seen much discussion on this, but they seem significantly cooler than the legacy sensors. And MUCH higher on humidity, at least in the overnight/mornings. All of a sudden, it's 100% humidity all the time at night around here. Never used to see ASOS throw up a 100% humidity before.

Current Events

I don't believe it's happened yet. Last I heard there was an issue at one of the test sites that caused them to pause the replacement plan, but that was like 9-10 months ago back when we weren't trying to cut NOAA's already meager funding in half.

EDIT: Looks like they have begun to roll some out to southern region stations.

EDIT2: On second look, it looks like they are done with half of the stations. Around here: BDL, HFD, IJD, ACK, BED, BOS, BVY, FIT, HYA, MVY, ORH, TAN, PVD, UUU, WST, and PYM.

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TheClimateChanger

TheClimateChanger

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

I don't believe it's happened yet. Last I heard there was an issue at one of the test sites that caused them to pause the replacement plan, but that was like 9-10 months ago back when we weren't trying to cut NOAA's already meager funding in half.

EDIT: Looks like they have begun to roll some out to southern region stations.

EDIT2: On second look, it looks like they are done with half of the stations. Around here: BDL, HFD, IJD, ACK, BED, BOS, BVY, FIT, HYA, MVY, ORH, TAN, and PYM.

Yes, they haven't updated the spreadsheet since July 1, so I suspect they've swapped out most by this point. Just wondering if there's been any cool bias? I would argue, yes, but I'm wondering if anyone else has noticed this. It looks like the stations that were running on legacy sensors did much better for heat early on this summer versus the stations that had swapped in the new sensors.

I wonder if we are going to have to temper our expectations for heat. Might be difficult to beat some of these 90s-2020s records if the sensors were reading hot. We've grown accustomed to breaking 100-150 year old records left and right. May not be the case moving forward. It look decades of climate warming before the ASOS HO-1088 hygrothermometer was regularly beating out the extremely warm biased HO-83. Even to this day, many summer records still date to that short era from about 1986-1995 (summer has substantially less natural variability, so biases have an outsized impact on the rankings). Might be a similar story for these new Vaisala sensors.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, snowman21 said:

I don't believe it's happened yet. Last I heard there was an issue at one of the test sites that caused them to pause the replacement plan, but that was like 9-10 months ago back when we weren't trying to cut NOAA's already meager funding in half.

EDIT: Looks like they have begun to roll some out to southern region stations.

EDIT2: On second look, it looks like they are done with half of the stations. Around here: BDL, HFD, IJD, ACK, BED, BOS, BVY, FIT, HYA, MVY, ORH, TAN, PVD, UUU, WST, and PYM.

How’s the NNE rollout? We’ve been wiping the floor with SNE on temps on a daily basis

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Just saw a video from a met from NH of the Saco.  She had never seen it so low. 

Saco at Cornish, Maine is at 269 cfs.  The listed low is 295 in 1995.

Sandy River at Mercer is 57.1 cfs.  Record low is 38.7 in 2002 while the 25th percentile is 86.  August 2002 Was the driest with 0.88", and Jan-August was 3rd lowest.   (Lowest J-A came the next year but Sept-Dec dumped more than 27", 57% of the year's total.)

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