Tracking the tropics - 2025

[Sn0waddict]

 

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This could “possibly” be like that deal we had in I think 2001. We had a strong offshore cane and strong HP to north and it created huge pressure gradient . There were HWW for all of SNE. I remember it distinctly. Was sunny/ cirrus but winds ripped during the day . I may not have year right, but I’ve talked about that event in here before 

But we don’t have a strong HP to the north? 

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

 

But we don’t have a strong HP to the north? 

We kind of do . May be too far NNE. Maybe nothing close to that scenario happens . Just looking for something that might not be thought of . Hoping for some kind of excitement and expecting Stein and calm 

[CoastalWx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We kind of do . May be too far NNE. Maybe nothing close to that scenario happens . Just looking for something that might not be thought of . Hoping for some kind of excitement and expecting Stein and calm 

 Sounds like beer

[CoastalWx]

There will be nothing fun from this 

[Sn0waddict]

Man I do wish my block island vacation was a few weeks earlier, the surf should be awesome next week. Hurricane Lee brought some good waves a few years back but I imagine these will be more significant. 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

There will be nothing fun from this 

Not even mocking the weenies who keep hanging on to the tiniest little piece of “positive” change?  That always seems fun. 

[Diggiebot]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

There will be nothing fun from this 

That’s what she said

[CoastalWx]

Today near 90 and next weekend too imo as long as it doesn’t rain. What a stretch we’ve been in. Definitely cools down this week.

[CoastalWx]

Torch Tiger seems confused.

[Baroclinic Zone]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Torch Tiger seems confused.

Heat stroke

[Chrisrotary12]

8 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

There will be nothing fun from this 

Surf?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Surf?

Meh

[CoastalWx]

Actually I was confused. Posted in the wrong thread earlier.  

[ROOSTA]

Let's see...
The last several Advisories. Not made up and documented.
Adjusted forecast track "nudged" to the W. A WNW movement to continue with an "expected" turn to the N.
ERIN was NEVER forecasted in the earlier advisories to be located at the present position.
Just something to watch, BE AWARE, going forth.
HFSA 2am. Thursday
72.3W 33.85N (closest approach)
Only then a fish let off the hook.  

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Torch Tiger seems confused.

you edited the post.  Nm ok

[WxWatcher007]

Erin is gone but the follow up wave may be something worth watching. If Erin gets out fast enough we should have the ridge rebuild as a deep trough dives in to our west. And it’s also not a 14 day fantasy deal. 

Obviously we’re never favored, but it’s a different setup at a more “reasonable” range. 
 

 

[Brian5671]

29 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Erin is gone but the follow up wave may be something worth watching. If Erin gets out fast enough we should have the ridge rebuild as a deep trough dives in to our west. And it’s also not a 14 day fantasy deal. 

Obviously we’re never favored, but it’s a different setup at a more “reasonable” range. 
 

 

Water will be churned up pretty good though?

[WxWatcher007]

33 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Water will be churned up pretty good though?

One of the reasons I like the SW Atlantic as a hot spot is the thermal environment. Erin is likely a blip, especially with it being mid August. 

 

[rimetree]

Interesting storm...surprised to read this from Ars...
"With a central pressure of 917 mb on Saturday, Erin ranks as the second-most intense Atlantic in the last 50 years prior to today's date, behind only Hurricane Allen in 1980."

[CoastalWx]

Ineedsnow still tracking?

[ineedsnow]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ineedsnow still tracking?

yup! 

[Torch Tiger]

54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ineedsnow still tracking?

some enjoy the pain. I doubt anyone would merrily track a massive blizzard that barely scrapes CC, unpaid anyway.

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

That strikes me as incorrect. Dorian, Irma, and Maria spring to mind immediately. I'm sure there are others I'm missing.

8/15 or prior.  I looked those up, all later

[weatherwiz]

All this hoopla around about tracking more west and south of guidance and blah blah blah and Erin is going to make the north track and re-curve within what was expected several days ago. Physics and science FTW

[ROOSTA]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

All this hoopla around about tracking more west and south of guidance and blah blah blah and Erin is going to make the north track and re-curve within what was expected several days ago. Physics and science FTW

What a boring place this would be if every post was spot on accurate without questioning.
Respectfully, why have Forum? ERIN wasn't a threat for landfall (given players on the field) but still worthy of the nuisances from formation to dissipation. A CAT5, strongest, fastest intensifying for the location and time of year.      

[mreaves]

8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Erin is gone

 

[weatherwiz]

2 hours ago, ROOSTA said:

What a boring place this would be if every post was spot on accurate without questioning.
Respectfully, why have Forum? ERIN wasn't a threat for landfall (given players on the field) but still worthy of the nuisances from formation to dissipation. A CAT5, strongest, fastest intensifying for the location and time of year.      

In terms of Erin and how it intensified, the developing storm, processes, etc. absolutely should be discussed and talked about. What Erin did was special and it’s extremely important these processes continue being studied. 

But this never had a chance of making landfall. When it comes to landfalling tropical systems, particularly in the Northeast, there is a very clear and distinct weather pattern that needs to be in place. We had the exact opposite of that weather pattern. When you don’t have a prime pattern in place, these storms will re-curve.

All these people out there on social media or whatever playing the “but if” game…weather doesn’t work on ifs. There are basic principles and concepts. “If the trough does this…if the high does this…if this if that, the models can change”…that’s not how this science works. Granted, it isn’t an exact science but there are still basic principles and concepts which provide the guidelines and basis. If there were going to be changes to any features or structures the pattern…those signals would exist within modeling or teleconnections and those signals were never, ever present. One run of an OP doesn’t constitute these as being present either. 

If anything, there was a better shot at the storm remaining on a west heading towards Florida, that would have been probable if Erin was within an environment not favorable for strengthening or organization, otherwise Erin was always going to gain latitude.

there was always going to be some range as to exactly how far west Erin would get either prior to re-curving or while re-curving and it was never going to be enough to be a “close call” and that’s because there was never a pattern or feature which would have shunted it even further west. A bunch of people playing the “if game” doesn’t change what the reality was, it doesn’t change what the meteorology and physics dictated would happen. 

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

All this hoopla around about tracking more west and south of guidance and blah blah blah and Erin is going to make the north track and re-curve within what was expected several days ago. Physics and science FTW

it's the same thing every year-kind of like radar hallucinations in the winter on an OTS storm...