Tracking the tropics - 2025

[WxWatcher007]

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

On the euro, it's too bad Erin feels that weakness around hr 186 and moves north. Otherwise that other trough diving into the GL might raise a few eyebrows, but it's way too late verbatim. Look at that massive gyre north of Maine.

Just a monster. I mean look at this.

12z

 

And 00z

 

Life support is probably putting it kindly though watch out Atlantic Canada..

[WxWatcher007]

I still think the GFS and its ensembles are too fast with the Atlantic ridge weakness, but we’d need substantial changes at medium range just to be a long shot in the ballgame for a close EC approach (saying nothing of the maritimes). 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I still think the GFS and its ensembles are too fast with the Atlantic ridge weakness, but we’d need substantial changes at medium range just to be a long shot in the ballgame for a close EC approach (saying nothing of the maritimes). 

I think a big part of that is tied into that trough digging into southeast Canada. Seems to really do a number on that riding. If the GFS is too aggressive with that degree of troughing that could open the door for a stronger ridge  

[jbenedet]

I believe the trend is to overall deamplify the players over the CONUS—the PNA ridge and the gyre over Eastern Canada.

The teleconnections across the board are trending to neutral over the next 10 days. It’s spectacularly boring on that front. We’re pretty much left with just the background climate. With that, this will be a nice test case to see how much easterly flow we can develop without a deep trough over eastern US; i.e. how much of our background climate has actually changed as it relates to the higher heights regularly observed over the western Atlantic.

[ineedsnow]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

On the euro, it's too bad Erin feels that weakness around hr 186 and moves north. Otherwise that other trough diving into the GL might raise a few eyebrows, but it's way too late verbatim. Look at that massive gyre north of Maine.

That's what I was talking about earlier.. it's been showing up on some models..

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That's what I was talking about earlier.. it's been showing up on some models..

Too late 

[Damage In Tolland]

Blows dongs and Jack dicks 

[Torch Tiger]

need so many things to go right.  less troughing across QC-CAN, slower solution/development and south. avoid or be less influenced that little weakness/trough that wants to tug it poleward just enough to make sure it's gone.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

need that big low across QC to scoot north-east and/or be far less bully

Canes have been known to totally change modeling , pump ridges etc. Can’t discount anything at this juncture 

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Canes have been known to totally change modeling , pump ridges etc. Can’t discount anything at this juncture 

if the U/A looked better I'd give it time, but it looks terrible

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

That's what I was talking about earlier.. it's been showing up on some models..

Im feeling this 

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I think a big part of that is tied into that trough digging into southeast Canada. Seems to really do a number on that riding. If the GFS is too aggressive with that degree of troughing that could open the door for a stronger ridge  

18z GFS more in line with Euro. I do wonder how much more change that ridge can take. 

Again, even if it means nothing for us (likely) if there is troughing diving to our west that opens the door for Hazey and the crew.

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

if the U/A looked better I'd give it time, but it looks terrible

 

 

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

18z GFS more in line with Euro. I do wonder how much more change that ridge can take. 

Again, even if it means nothing for us (likely) if there is troughing diving to our west that opens the door for Hazey and the crew.

The farther west it comes it also affects the general wx pattern late month. A wise man would say “take em up “ 

[Torch Tiger]

38 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

The farther west it comes it also affects the general wx pattern late month. A wise man would say “take em up “ 

 

[512high]

7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 

great song!

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Im feeling this 

Good luck. 18z AI way west and still only my worst case scenario of breezy and a few showers on the cape. Yawn.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Im feeling this 

If this started out further south then maybe. But we're already at a disadvantage. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If this started out further south then maybe. But we're already at a disadvantage. 

Lets see how far west it tracks before it heads north and how much strength it gains.

[CoastalWx]

Too late Anthony, too late.

 

 

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If this started out further south then maybe. But we're already at a disadvantage. 

Keeps going south and later recurve 

[WxWatcher007]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lets see how far west it tracks before it heads north and how much strength it gains.

Remember that you need two huge changes to occur:

1) the Atlantic ridge is substantially stronger for longer to push Erin deeper into the SW Atlantic 

AND

2) A cutoff trough at the right time to pull it up the coast, which also requires that Canadian troughing showing up in the long range across guidance to essentially be replaced with a ridge or at least something that isn't screaming NW flow. 

Not impossible, but that is a very tall task. 

@CoastalWxwe go all winter and summer with ridges, SW flow, and trough de-amplification and as soon as there's a tropical system that all goes poof. 

San Diego  

[WxWatcher007]

The Atlantic ridging may actually be doable. Erin has been south of modeled so far and the trend toward a stronger ridge seems to have some legs (though the GFS was always underdoing it imo). 

The issue is later--that UL steering pattern over the EC in the long range is anything but a NE landfall look--as folks have said. If that massive trough in Canada can be blunted and the ridging in the Atlantic continues to look stronger...then maybe we're talking. 

[Torch Tiger]

33 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The Atlantic ridging may actually be doable. Erin has been south of modeled so far and the trend toward a stronger ridge seems to have some legs (though the GFS was always underdoing it imo). 

The issue is later--that UL steering pattern over the EC in the long range is anything but a NE landfall look--as folks have said. If that massive trough in Canada can be blunted and the ridging in the Atlantic continues to look stronger...then maybe we're talking. 

Never. ever.

[Torch Tiger]

=)

[Diggiebot]

8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Never. ever.

Have you ever heard of James nichols? 

[hurricaneman]

Based on the gfs and euro ensembles there is a 5% chance that there could be an impact on southern New England which means I believe this will be wide east but maybe Atlantic Canada can’t be ruled out

[Modfan2]

Looks like the positioning is a little further south than modeled, looks like we watch and track.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Looks like the positioning is a little further south than modeled, looks like we watch and track.

Looks like nothing to watch and track. 

[MJO812]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like nothing to watch and track. 

Maybe to you but others on Facebook, Twitter and other forums will continue.  

[NSwx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like nothing to watch and track. 

Better than tracking endless days of sunshine, this is a weather forum after all lol