Hurricane Erin: 105 MPH - 945 mb - NNE @ 17

[olafminesaw]

15 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Little surprised they bumped winds to 95 kts given highest SFMR winds were around 75 kts and strongest FL winds were almost 100 miles from center

It seems like highest winds are in banding outside the center, so they may be making the assumption that since they haven't fully sampled the storm they are missing the highest winds. Especially with how impressive the pressure is. Makes me wonder if they need to mix up the flight pattern a bit to get better data, not only on max intensity but the size of the wind-field.

[NorthHillsWx]

9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

It seems like highest winds are in banding outside the center, so they may be making the assumption that since they haven't fully sampled the storm they are missing the highest winds. Especially with how impressive the pressure is. Makes me wonder if they need to mix up the flight pattern a bit to get better data, not only on max intensity but the size of the wind-field.

Yes in the discussion it states they used the max winds found in the outer eyewall and an increased reduction given where they were but SFMR winds in that same area were way lower, like 60 kts. Definitely an interesting storm and a ton of wind energy aloft. This thing is exploding in diameter too. We are so lucky this is going ots this storm would be a prolific surge producer and inland wind issue if it was heading towards the coast 

[Eskimo Joe]

Eye emerging on Erin again. What a picturesque satellite view.

[BooneWX]

Eye emerging on Erin again. What a picturesque satellite view.

.

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Yes in the discussion it states they used the max winds found in the outer eyewall and an increased reduction given where they were but SFMR winds in that same area were way lower, like 60 kts. Definitely an interesting storm and a ton of wind energy aloft. This thing is exploding in diameter too. We are so lucky this is going ots this storm would be a prolific surge producer and inland wind issue if it was heading towards the coast 

Definitely 

This was so close to producing damaging results for the coast .

[olafminesaw]

11 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

.

 

[Interstate]

Just checked out the NC webcams... still looks pretty minor down there.  The waves where bigger two weeks ago in Kill Devil Hills when I was visiting.

[Kevin Reilly]

7 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Just checked out the NC webcams... still looks pretty minor down there.  The waves where bigger two weeks ago in Kill Devil Hills when I was visiting.

Yea I was there too in Kitty Hawk.  The weather was terrible August 2nd to 9th the water was like brown chocolate every day double red flag warnings. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

7 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Just checked out the NC webcams... still looks pretty minor down there.  The waves where bigger two weeks ago in Kill Devil Hills when I was visiting.

That’s due to the current swell direction being south. As the Erin gets to the obx latitude the largest fetch (allot of it pressure gradient driven) will be pointed east to west. And right at them. Thats when the damage will occur. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s due to the current swell direction being south. As the Erin gets to the obx latitude the largest fetch (allot of it pressure gradient driven) will be pointed east to west. And right at them. Thats when the damage will occur. 

Thats probably later tonight and tomorrow morning I would think.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Thats probably later tonight and tomorrow morning I would think.

Exactly, those high tides will be the issue. Further north it’s tomorrow evenings high tide. I’m in Montauk right now and the beach is washed out right to the dunes. And we haven’t even seen anything close to what’s coming tomorrow up here. 

[wthrmn654]

Looking at 6z model plots versus storm position the storm is west of models at its 12z position, interestingly.  See photo

Looking at the consensus and offical tracks north are north and west cost to when it is nearing its north east turn. 

They said they didn't change the forecast track but looking at the wind graphic, it's very much changed as parts are the most east long island etc are in the 5%chance now for tropical storm force winds now. 

I

 

[wthrmn654]

And, looking at the track the most recent positioning is more west versus the past few plots, maybe a wobble, or new center who knows. 

[olafminesaw]

9 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Thats probably later tonight and tomorrow morning I would think.

Yep, the GFS is showing the biggest waves pushing in between 6 pm and 4 am

[wthrmn654]

Looking at the nhc model viewer for 06z run,  it would appear only 2 models showed it at the most recent position, both i believe are hurricane models,.

 

 

[wthrmn654]

For anyone wanting a super amazing zoomable interactive any model know to humans viewer, 

https://nhc-display.ral.ucar.edu/nhc-display/

 

It's so wowing. 

[RaleighNC]

1 hour ago, BooneWX said:

.

Same energy:

[NJwx85]

https://twitter.com/accurayno/status/1958159185348091929?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

 

No idea why this won’t embed. I changed from x to twitter.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[GaWx]

 

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

https://twitter.com/accurayno/status/1958159185348091929?s=46&t=wnL9UkNay47lChNZhqU2Pw

 

No idea why this won’t embed. I changed from x to twitter.

 You need to delete the portion after the “?”.

[wthrmn654]

I'm part of the NWSChat stream now and i essentially just asked them about the impacts especially coastal flooding as this storm track keeps being shifted north/ west. If that will increase areas not under costal flood watch, eastern long island for example, and other risks. I await to see if I get an answer. 

[wthrmn654]

We now have a fairly decent eye again

[NJwx85]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

 You need to delete the portion after the “?”.

Thanks 

[GaWx]

Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 73.6W
ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM W OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES

Some strengthening is expected during the next day or so, 
and Erin could become a major hurricane again by tonight. Weakening 
is likely to begin by Friday, but Erin is forecast to remain a 
hurricane into the weekend.

Erin is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up 
to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force 
winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km).

 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Rain bands showing up on KMHX radar. 

[Wannabehippie]

2:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 20
Location: 30.6°N 73.6°W
Moving: N at 13 mph
Min pressure: 943 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
 

Nice clear eye now, but some dry air near the center of circulation
But the wider view looks like it has good outflow to all quadrants.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

2:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 20
Location: 30.6°N 73.6°W
Moving: N at 13 mph
Min pressure: 943 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
 

Nice clear eye now, but some dry air near the center of circulation,

Looks like the core is well protected for now. Very impressive MW. 

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 

 You need to delete the portion after the “?”.

I think the only thing holding Erin from regaining cat 3 is that dry slot near the center. If it can clear that out, we probably will get some intensification.

[Wannabehippie]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Looks like the core is well protected for now. Very impressive MW. 

Is that an outer eye wall forming? New ERC ongoing?

[BarryStantonGBP]

57 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

I think the only thing holding Erin from regaining cat 3 is that dry slot near the center. If it can clear that out, we probably will get some intensification.

Reminds me of a hurricane exactly 1 year ago