WxWatcher007 Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago That’s a TC to me but maybe the NHC pulls the trigger at 11… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TampaMan Posted 20 hours ago Share Posted 20 hours ago 2 hours ago, dbullsfan said: I’m sure a lot of us quietly would love a storm to track and love the natural beauty of big storms, but maybe don’t openly act so excited and seemingly be rooting for a devastating storm. Real lives are affected and it isn’t just a video game. I can only hope as this or any storm gets closer to land these kinds of post get cleaned up. You can start your own wish casting thread if you want but don’t bring it in here. This is how I felt. I came to this forum rooting for winter weather, and when we did it obviously when it became an emergency situation we would alert people and let them know what to do. I came here looking for input on a vacation planned Aug 15-22 and noticed there is active rooting for a hurricane to develop and track towards mainland U.S. which just seems felt odd to me. By all means, track and get hyped all you want, but getting excited over one tracking towards us just seems eh.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 20 hours ago Author Share Posted 20 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 35 minutes ago, TampaMan said: It’s a small contingent fortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 12 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: If you don’t want a US hit then you want the TC to form as early as possible as stonger storms tend to be pulled poleward quicker. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 12Z UKMET for the record: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 18.0N 39.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 13.08.2025 60 18.0N 39.9W 1009 30 1200UTC 13.08.2025 72 17.8N 43.8W 1008 26 0000UTC 14.08.2025 84 19.0N 46.2W 1009 30 1200UTC 14.08.2025 96 20.5N 50.1W 1009 30 0000UTC 15.08.2025 108 21.9N 53.0W 1008 32 1200UTC 15.08.2025 120 23.3N 55.9W 1006 36 0000UTC 16.08.2025 132 24.4N 57.9W 1005 43 1200UTC 16.08.2025 144 25.5N 59.8W 1004 46 0000UTC 17.08.2025 156 26.7N 60.8W 1002 48 1200UTC 17.08.2025 168 28.2N 61.2W 998 52 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 27 minutes ago, bigtenfan said: If you don’t want a US hit then you want the TC to form as early as possible as stonger storms tend to be pulled poleward quicker. yeah we will see, mother nature can be crazy, but this smells like one for the Fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago Bam bam bam 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a well-defined low pressure area located over the eastern portion of the Cabo Verde Islands. Only a small increase in the organization could lead to the formation of a tropical depression as the low continues moving across the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and on Monday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue tonight and Monday across the Cabo Verde Islands, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Even if a tropical depression does not form over the next day or so, environmental conditions appear conducive for later development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form by the middle to latter portion of this week while moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago I wonder if the ensemble average/ low SLP spots give a very good indication of where the storm will be at in a week (or more.) (Something like, east of the Bahamas.) I'll try to see what these ensembles say in 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Formed too quick. Fish storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago There seems to be a cluster closer to Bermuda than Bahamas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 3 hours ago, bigtenfan said: If you don’t want a US hit then you want the TC to form as early as possible as stonger storms tend to be pulled poleward quicker. That’s what she said 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 38 minutes ago, WE GOT HIM said: Formed too quick. Fish storm What 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 50 minutes ago, Chinook said: I wonder if the ensemble average/ low SLP spots give a very good indication of where the storm will be at in a week (or more.) (Something like, east of the Bahamas.) I'll try to see what these ensembles say in 2-3 days. I really like using a “super ensemble” to visualize what’s being modeled, and Tomer has a great site that shows the trend over time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted 15 hours ago Share Posted 15 hours ago 1 hour ago, Chinook said: I wonder if the ensemble average/ low SLP spots give a very good indication of where the storm will be at in a week (or more.) (Something like, east of the Bahamas.) I'll try to see what these ensembles say in 2-3 days. On this ensemble at least looking at the players on the field the center of the high way out in the Eastern Atlantic would allow this to turn north or even continue westbound depending on high up north along the Eastern States. Now what is exactly going on along the east coast will tell the tale to where exactly this will go. I mean right now (and caveat is right now) there is quite a bit of blocking going on off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts the Carolinas by no means are out of the woods at this long lead or up into the Middle Atlantic and Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 14 hours ago Share Posted 14 hours ago I mean...that's a TC to me. SHIPS has continued to get more aggressive with development, and now has this becoming our first major hurricane of the year in a few days when it reaches a more favorable environment. 97L is getting an upper level assist from a passing CCKW, but heat content and SSTs will significantly improve further west. That said, note the drier air ahead of it though. It may impact its ability to intensify despite its current IR display. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 0Z UKMET recurves along 63.3W: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 17.8N 32.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.08.2025 36 18.1N 35.6W 1008 32 0000UTC 13.08.2025 48 17.5N 39.4W 1007 29 1200UTC 13.08.2025 60 17.9N 42.4W 1007 30 0000UTC 14.08.2025 72 18.8N 45.3W 1007 31 1200UTC 14.08.2025 84 19.9N 48.8W 1007 31 0000UTC 15.08.2025 96 20.5N 51.8W 1006 30 1200UTC 15.08.2025 108 21.0N 54.9W 1005 40 0000UTC 16.08.2025 120 21.7N 57.2W 1004 42 1200UTC 16.08.2025 132 22.8N 60.0W 1003 46 0000UTC 17.08.2025 144 23.9N 61.7W 1003 44 1200UTC 17.08.2025 156 25.7N 63.3W 1003 42 0000UTC 18.08.2025 168 28.1N 63.3W 1003 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Highly unlikely that thing makes it to the US based on those above graphics. There is a notable northward component this far out. And some projected kinks in the ridge down the road to add. But it will absolutely moisten the palate for everything that follows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Go fishe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Regardless of eventual direct impacts on the east coast, a major hurricane that makes it west of 60 west will be a prolific swell producer. Since it is relatively early beaches will be impacted. Closures for rip currents, and minor beach erosion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago ropical Wave Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion #118 Mon Aug 11, 2025 6:00 am Flooding associated with this 97L disturbance caused six deaths tonight in São Vicente, Cape Verde. Four of the victims were children.Link 1Link 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago Top Category5Kaiju Category 5 Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion #108 Sun Aug 10, 2025 11:20 pm Just a quick reminder that this is happening in 25-26 C waters. This demonstrates that while important, raw sea surface temperatures are only one aspect of the picture when it comes down to maintaining a tropical cyclone. The June-July chatter about this season struggling with stability in August, Atlantic Nina, lukewarm tropical sea surface temperatures, etc. now feels like ancient history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago AL, 05, 2025081112, , BEST, 0, 173N, 273W, 40, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 30, 1010, 160, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERIN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 016, TRANSITIONED, alA72025 to al052025 Looks like it got renumbered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago Tropical Storm ERINAs of 12:00 UTC Aug 11, 2025: Location: 17.3°N 27.3°WMaximum Winds: 40 kt Gusts: N/AMinimum Central Pressure: 1004 mbEnvironmental Pressure: N/ARadius of Circulation: N/ARadius of Maximum wind: N/A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago Will Erin score any goals? BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 200 PM CVT Mon Aug 11 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORMS JUST WEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 28.0W ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 2305 MI...3710 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 3 hours ago Author Share Posted 3 hours ago 000 WTNT45 KBAR 111447 TCDBAR5 Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 1 Barry Central Pub Forecast Centre AL052025 200 PM CVT Mon Aug 11 2025 Right lads & lasses, she’s on. The lass Erin’s finally laced up her boots after mucking about over them Cabo Verde Islands, and now she’s off down the wing at 17 knots; proper pace, none of this sideways passing nonsense. Got the Dvorak ratings in from the boffins, said she’s at 40 knots now which is about a Force 8 on the Blackpool Prom scale. She’s heading west like a winger on the counterattack, could cut slightly south if she fancies a nutmeg on the Azores defence. Midfield ridge still keeping her onside, but give it a few days and she might drift poleward for the big shot. Model spread at the end’s as wide as the gap in England’s back four in the 2010 World Cup. Intensity forecast: tricky one. Small lass, could bulk up quick or trip over her own laces. Pitch conditions are fair; light shear, but only 26-27°C SSTs so not exactly a warm pint. Dry air lurking like the away fans. Expect her to slowly work up to a respectable Cat 1 by midweek, then maybe start putting the proper goals in later on when she finds warmer waters. Models say she could be a major by full-time. CAM ON ERIN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 17.4N 28.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 17.5N 31.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 17.4N 35.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 17.1N 38.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 17.1N 41.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 17.4N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 18.0N 48.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 19.6N 54.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 21.5N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Barry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago hfbi said score a category 5 goal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silver Meteor Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 10 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Regardless of eventual direct impacts on the east coast, a major hurricane that makes it west of 60 west will be a prolific swell producer. Since it is relatively early beaches will be impacted. Closures for rip currents, and minor beach erosion. Lifeguards will be busy. There will be drownings. That much we can forecast with confidence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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