August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[uofmiami]

 

[Roger Smith]

Don's top ten summers

2010 1966 1993 1995 1999 1980 1988 1949 2011 1994

Their ranks in my table

__ 2 __ 3 __ 11 ___ 24 __ 21 __ 14 __ 22 __ 06 __ 36 __ 30

LB favorites 1944 and 1983 finished 8 and 12. 

I'm not sure whether Don considered summers before 1949 in his top ten listing, or where in time his list begins, would be interesting to find out where some of my top ten (1876, 1906, 1908) finished in his list. But in general I think cool starts to June are the main determining factor in placing a given summer lower on my list, that part of summer rarely produces much of the heat content that Don's method was measuring; also, if September heat was included, none of that would affect my rankings. Even without Sep 1-3, 1953 ranked 29th.

The four worst modern summers were 2009, 2000, 1992 and 1996. 

[winterwx21]

0.52" here. Not bad. A much-needed watering for the vegetable garden. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

Don's top ten summers

2010 1966 1993 1995 1999 1980 1988 1949 2011 1994

Their ranks in my table

__ 2 __ 3 __ 11 ___ 24 __ 21 __ 14 __ 22 __ 06 __ 36 __ 30

LB favorites 1944 and 1983 finished 8 and 12. 

I'm not sure whether Don considered summers before 1949 in his top ten listing, or where in time his list begins, would be interesting to find out where some of my top ten (1876, 1906, 1908) finished in his list. But in general I think cool starts to June are the main determining factor in placing a given summer lower on my list, that part of summer rarely produces much of the heat content that Don's method was measuring; also, if September heat was included, none of that would affect my rankings. Even without Sep 1-3, 1953 ranked 29th.

The four worst modern summers were 2009, 2000, 1992 and 1996. 

Surprised not to see 2002 and 1991 mentioned somewhere in the top ones.

WX/PT

[Roger Smith]

1991 28th and 2002 33rd in my list; bearing in mind there really isn't much differential from about 20th to 40th, and the older years get a boost of 2 F compared to anything recent. Without that boost, about six fall out of the top 20 and all these 20-30 ranked years move up that many ranks at least. 

I am somewhat conflicted about applying any urban heat correction, the positive is that it allows a better assessment of climate change from other sources, the negative is that people alive in those earlier years experienced actual temperatures shown in my tables and people nowadays 2 F warmer than shown. In between, like around the 1930s, the differential was closer to 1 F. 

Perhaps the annual average is 2 F but seasonal differences are not all exactly the same, and I should retool the comparisons based on seasonal ranges. Summer is probably the season I would reduce the boost, and winter I might increase it, leaving it as is for spring and autumn.

That would likely move 1876 down a few rungs, as well as 1906, 1908 and 1870. Oddly, while urban heat island increase is supposed to give a larger increase in overnight minima, the years making it into the top ten are known mainly for warm nights back in the early phase of NYC's urbanization. These years may have resembled 2025 more than the really hot summers of recent decades (a steady dull warmth). 

[Roger Smith]

NYC high of 70F was not quite a record low max (68F 1990, 2000). Today (21st) won't break the record low max either, since it was 59F in 2007 (tied with Aug 31, 1911 as lowest of all maxima in August). 

Record low minima for 21st to 23rd are 53 (1922), 52 (1895) and 51 (1923). Highs associated with them are in the low 70s F and not record low maxima. This indicates they were all intrusions of fall-like cooler air from the northwest and not like 21st-22nd 2007 held down by cloud and northeast winds. (max on 22nd 2007 was also a record low 65F). 

[MJO812]

61 here

[ForestHillWx]

57 with a light shower.

Radar shows a few small cells rotating down from the NE; outermost reach of Erin squeezed up against the front?

[IrishRob17]

1.70” with some very light stuff still falling, 55/54. 2.05” for the month. 

[donsutherland1]

7 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Don's top ten summers

2010 1966 1993 1995 1999 1980 1988 1949 2011 1994

Their ranks in my table

__ 2 __ 3 __ 11 ___ 24 __ 21 __ 14 __ 22 __ 06 __ 36 __ 30

LB favorites 1944 and 1983 finished 8 and 12. 

I'm not sure whether Don considered summers before 1949 in his top ten listing, or where in time his list begins, would be interesting to find out where some of my top ten (1876, 1906, 1908) finished in his list. But in general I think cool starts to June are the main determining factor in placing a given summer lower on my list, that part of summer rarely produces much of the heat content that Don's method was measuring; also, if September heat was included, none of that would affect my rankings. Even without Sep 1-3, 1953 ranked 29th.

The four worst modern summers were 2009, 2000, 1992 and 1996. 

For Central Park, I included all summers from 1869-2024. 

[steve392]

57 in mahwah.  Just a downright crappy drive to work.  

[jm1220]

0.4” or so of drizzle. Get this gunk out of here. 

[MANDA]

Currently 55 degrees with sheets of drizzle.  Loving it.  Feels like October out there.

Picked up .61" rainfall thus far.  Would have liked more but I'll call it a win.

With the cooler temperatures the .61" will "last" longer than if we bounced back to sunny and 90.

I swear things look greener even with just .61".

 

[bluewave]

Some localized heavier amounts here on the CT Shoreline and refreshing low maxes after all the heat and dry conditions this summer.

 

Daily Precipitation Report
Station Number: CT-FR-25	Station Name: Norwalk 2.9 NNW
Data Explorer
Observation Date	8/21/2025 7:00 AM
Submitted	8/21/2025 6:38 AM
Gauge Catch	1.75 in.
Notes	FallLike Day. 60s breezy. FINALLY RAIN!!! Started as mist late morning. Moderate in afternoon. Heavy at 11pm. Rained overnight. Misting at OBS

 

Data for August 20, 2025 through August 20, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

GROTON NEW LONDON AP	WBAN	1.58
NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	0.73

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
221 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025

...RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 70 DEGREES WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 20 AT 
BRIDGEPORT SIKORSKY AIRPORT. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 
70 DEGREES, SET IN 1990. RECORDS FOR THE BRIDGEPORT CT AREA GO BACK 
TO 1948.

ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

 

 

[the_other_guy]

This storm was like a surprise snow storm that just overperforms. Still raining. I cant wait to see precip amounts from on I 84 corridor

[the_other_guy]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Some localized heavier amounts here on the CT Shoreline and refreshing low maxes after all the heat and dry conditions this summer.

 

Daily Precipitation Report
Station Number: CT-FR-25	Station Name: Norwalk 2.9 NNW
Data Explorer
Observation Date	8/21/2025 7:00 AM
Submitted	8/21/2025 6:38 AM
Gauge Catch	1.75 in.
Notes	FallLike Day. 60s breezy. FINALLY RAIN!!! Started as mist late morning. Moderate in afternoon. Heavy at 11pm. Rained overnight. Misting at OBS

 

Data for August 20, 2025 through August 20, 2025
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

GROTON NEW LONDON AP	WBAN	1.58
NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	0.73

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
221 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025

...RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT BRIDGEPORT CT...

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 70 DEGREES WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 20 AT 
BRIDGEPORT SIKORSKY AIRPORT. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 
70 DEGREES, SET IN 1990. RECORDS FOR THE BRIDGEPORT CT AREA GO BACK 
TO 1948.

ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

 

 

Arent we running BN for August? 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Arent we running BN for August? 

My area east of HVN has been at +0.5 for August so far. So a nice step down from the record heat in June and July. The last few days here have been the coolest of the month so far.

[donsutherland1]

24 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Arent we running BN for August? 

Most, but not all of the area is below normal so far. I suspect that the entire region will finish below normal once August concludes. NYC will be solidly below normal.

[bluewave]

Maybe with the depth of the trough for early next week we can get another opportunity for some much needed rainfall. 

 

[steve392]

This was a nice soaking rain.  Gardens are going to look good in a few days.  

[the_other_guy]

Ive never seen so much hype and sensationalism for a Cat 1 storm that isnt hitting…anywhere.

 

This is why people hate the media nowadays. 

[Brian5671]

Over an inch here  and we had about 1/2 inch Sunday night-much needed

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, the_other_guy said:

Ive never seen so much hype and sensationalism for a Cat 1 storm that isnt hitting…anywhere.

 

This is why people hate the media nowadays. 

It's ridiculous.    I know it's quiet weatherwise but just overkill

[winterwarlock]

.21 total and its all been basically drizzle...get this crap outta here..i want my sun and warmth back

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Nassau County really needs a micronet, there are probably big differences from the barrier islands to Sunrise Highway let alone what happens farther north.

Sea breezes are very local and don't usually make it more than 2 miles inland.

Sea breeze activity really depends on the pattern. But I agree that the more weather stations we have the better. 

2010 was the greatest sea breeze outlier that I ever saw living in Long Beach. Much of the spring into early fall was dominated by westerly flow. So it was the warmest summer on record to this day in Long Beach and other areas especially along the coastal plain.

Most of the time anyone south of the LIE and Northern State usually get sea breezes. But this is more enhanced south of the Southern State and Sunrise Highway. So once north of the immediate South Shore the sea breeze has less cooling influence. Though it does have some effect especially by later in the day. 

[MANDA]

48 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It's ridiculous.    I know it's quiet weatherwise but just overkill

Can you just imagine when the next REAL SIGNIFICANT threat comes along.  They will be tripping over the hyperbole.  Just picture what it would be like if something like a Donna or 1944 came along.

Mr. Ed from NJ will be leading the charge with daily news conferences 7 days before and 2 weeks after.  

The smart people hate the media and those that don't fall for all the hype.  Hook, line and sinker every single time.

I'll add....the only "hype" that was really needed was the message about rip currents, waves and surf to keep the truly stupid out of the water.

[wdrag]

Kind of embarrassing for the GEFS/CMCE early Monday morning guidance that was relied upon for the WPC dry product for Wednesday 8/21.  Our p45 815AM post had it all documented, with the EPS suite clearly indicating something along the lines of what happened.  It's not always EPS/EC superior to the GFS suite but I am getting disappointed.  Had this been winter, I think the forum would have been lit with posts.  As it was, this snuck by... possibly most not caring, despite science allowing for consideration. 

No doubt the was a meaningful rain for all of us, alleviating some of the recent summer dryness. The rainfall accumulation graphics attached demonstrate.

Also, while not a clear cut PRE,  this qpf event was well in advance of Erin-an indirect influence on what happened here as you well know from watching radar. The PRE composite was helpful for me as meteorologist, attempting to gauge what might happen in our NYC subforum.  

MESOSCALE excesses: DID happen in se NYS and se CT, per attached NYC FFW, attached digital rainfall output which showed the 5" max, AND,  weather underground two day report of 4.89" near Boutonville NYS (Old Post Rd) via station KNYSOUTH137.  I did not check many stations there but you can get the drift.

I have to clear some attachments so the attachments will complete at 915A and the attached at 915AM may not be in correct order, but if you're interested check all of this information presented.  

My house in Wantage NJ only 1.04 11A/20-6A/21.  

[MANDA]

2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Kind of embarrassing for the GEFS/CMCE early Monday morning guidance that was relied upon for the WPC dry product for Wednesday 8/21.  Our p45 815AM post had it all documented, with the EPS suite clearly indicating something along the lines of what happened.  It's not always EPS/EC superior to the GFS suite but I am getting disappointed.  Had this been winter, I think the forum would have been lit with posts.  As it was, this snuck by... possibly most not caring, despite science allowing for consideration. 

No doubt the was a meaningful rain for all of us, alleviating some of the recent summer dryness. The rainfall accumulation graphics attached demonstrate.

Also, while not a clear cut PRE,  this qpf event was well in advance of Erin-an indirect influence on what happened here as you well know from watching radar. The PRE composite was helpful for me as meteorologist, attempting to gauge what might happen in our NYC subforum.  

MESOSCALE excesses: DID happen in se NYS and se CT, per attached NYC FFW, attached digital rainfall output which showed the 5" max, AND,  weather underground two day report of 4.89" near Boutonville NYS (Old Post Rd) via station KNYSOUTH137.  I did not check many stations there but you can get the drift.

I have to clear some attachments so the attachments will complete at 915A and the attached at 915AM may not be in correct order, but if you're interested check all of this information presented.  

My house in Wantage NJ only 1.04 11A/20-6A/21.  

Nice job sniffing all this out Walt !   Excellent work as always.

[FPizz]

49 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

.21 total and its all been basically drizzle...get this crap outta here..i want my sun and warmth back

Same here, .23"

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Same here, .23"

I don't remember if you needed the rain or not but you did get shafted with this, you have one of the lowest totals in the area. 

I got skunked a bit as well considering the surrounding amounts, northern Queens and Nassau had between 0.4 and 0.6 but closer to an inch just a couple miles south of me and much bigger amounts just north as well.