August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[BxEngine]

I was leaving the jersey shore and getting gas in Brick when the storms rolled thru. Lightning struck directly across the street and everyone lost power….after 3 gallons  

[bluewave]

Some records from 1993 have been very difficult to beat. It still remains the only year where the warm spots had 100° heat from June through September. Was the only year with 9 days getting to 100°. 

But the 2020s are getting close to surpassing the 1990s for total 100° days with 4 years to go. The 2020s only need 3 more 100° days to set the new record.
 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ June Through September Maximum Temperatures
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	103	101	96	M	103
2021	103	97	99	91	103
2011	102	108	98	88	108
1994	102	99	95	92	102
1993	102	105	100	100	105
1952	102	98	92	94	102
1943	102	95	97	93	102
1988	101	101	99	86	101
1966	101	105	95	91	105
2024	100	99	100	87	100
1959	100	93	96	93	100
1953	100	99	102	105	105
1934	100	98	90	85	100
1923	100	99	92	90	100

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec 100° Days
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1993	9	0
2	1949	8	0
3	2025	7	136
4	2022	6	0
-	1953	6	0
6	1988	5	0
-	1966	5	0

100° days

1990s….19 days

2020s…17 days

1940s….16 days

1950s….15 days

2010s….13 days

2000s…11 days

1980s….9 days

1960s….6 days

1970s….3 days

 

 

[MANDA]

Skunked on the rainfall again IMBY.  On a brighter note it is really pleasant out there this morning.  Temperature of 59, low humidity and a nice breeze.

Very refreshing for a change!

[ag3]

What a gorgeous morning. Feels like fall.

[Brian5671]

59 here with NE winds

[wdrag]

Testing modeling: WPC seems strongly attached to the much drier GEFS/EPS per no qpf in our subform, this week as per attached 5 day qpf issued around Mon 8/18 10z.

Please follow NWS/WPC/NHC.  I'll continue to monitor for my own interest on whether the more benign GEFS prevails over the more vigorous EPS in our NYC subforum.   This post continues from Saturday 410PM and prior posts last week and will be a lesson for me regarding EPS and EPS AI.   IF the GEFS is to prevail,  EPS and EPS AI will have to dry out soon. 

EPS suite is as yet the most intriguing for 1-2" 12 hour general rainfall sometime between 8/19-21 for NJ/CT/NYS/PA, in part due to nw flow UL short wave with associated RRQ UL jet in the Maritimes and some relatively shallow low level ese moisture inflow related to the position of the H near Nova Scotia and the L near Lake Erie,  connecting a bit with ERIN?  EPS PW steady since the past Saturday near 1.5" for 12z Wed at 40N. Lots of fairly deep vorticity NYS into the mid Atlantic states along the boundary this week into Thu AM.    Atlantic Recurvature PRE composite has had my attention since late last week.  ODDS for recent drought easing rainfall per multi modeling are very low. Yet, continues my attention on ultimate results for Tue-Wed-Thu AM this week.  Just to see how erroneous the EC AI can be.

 

Added WPC 5 day,  the 06z ECAI and its 06z ensemble as well as the 00z/18 EPS AI 24 hour prob for 1" (very low prob except I90 in NYS). EC EPS is less vigorous than the EC AI suite. 

[bluewave]

Maybe the EPS shifting to a deeper trough and stronger cold front passage next Monday could actually give us some organized rainfall rather than the spotty convection of late leading to the developing dry pattern. 
 

 

New run

Old run

 

[winterwarlock]

that wind is biting this morning....brrr

 

8 day heatwave will fall by the wayside

[Stormlover74]

10 hours ago, FPizz said:

All missed here.  Philly area getting hammered

Mt. Holly nearly 5"

[SACRUS]

 

67 / 56 and the coolest - cloudiest day (as a whole) since Aug 1st with the NE / ENE flow and cloud bank socked and locked in.  Low 70s today and maybe some glimmers of sun later on - stiff breeze.   Mainly 70s Tue / Wed with some 80 / low 80s inland.   Erin goes on by with some heavy surf and scattered showers Wed-Thu.   Warmup by Friday and this coming weekend, before trough settles in next Monday.  Ridge builds east and heights rising the close of the month with the next chance at some heat wit overall warm-hot beyond.

 

8/18 - 8/21 :   Cooler below normal - scattered rain Wed/Thu
8/22 - 8/24 :  Warmer - near normal
8/25 - 8/29:   Cooler / Wetter overall
8/30 - BeYond :   Warm - hot

[donsutherland1]

A cooler regime is now in place and it will remain in place for an extended period of time. Here's where things currently stand with respect to select high temperature thresholds for 2025:

[Sundog]

2 hours ago, ag3 said:

What a gorgeous morning. Feels like fall.

I hope we stay at these temps all day

[SACRUS]

 

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 97 (2002)
NYC: 94 (2002)
LGA: 95 (2002)
JFK: 93 (1995)


Lows:

EWR: 52 (1941)
NYC: 55 (1915)
LGA: 59 (1941)
JFK: 58 (1963)


Historical:

 

1779: William Dunbar observed and wrote about the passage of a hurricane's eye over New Orleans. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1879: This storm is often called "The Cape Cod Hurricane of 1879" An extreme hurricane moved north and went on the rampage from the Bahamas to Eastport, Maine (track to the right). In the immediate Mid-Atlantic region, the track of this storm ran very close to a Wilmington - Elizabeth City, NC axis to just southeast of Norfolk. It was considered one of the most severe to strike coastal Virginia in the last half century and was probably as severe as the June 1825 storm. The passage of this storm was accompanied by a rapid pressure fall from 29.58 inches at 9:00 am to 29.12 inches at 11:15 am on the 18th, which was the lowest pressure observed in the storm. Five-minute sustained winds rose to 76 mph with gusts toward 100 mph at Cape Henry, before the anemometer was destroyed. (Ref. for 1879 Hurricane)

1906: Unusual tropical storm came up into the Gulf of California, giving Needles, California 5.66 inches of rain, twice what would normally be seen in a year. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1909: Bagdad, in San Bernardino County of California, reported no precipitation for 993 consecutive days from this date to 5/6/1912. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1917: The high temperature in Death Valley, CA was 119°. This ended a record streak of 43 consecutive days with the high temperature 120° or hotter. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

 

1925 - During the late morning hours a severe hailstorm struck southeastern Iowa completely destroying crops along a path six to ten miles wide and 75 miles long. The hail also injured and killed poultry and livestock, and caused a total of 2.5 million dollars damage. The hailstorm flattened fields of corn to such an extent that many had to leave their farms in search of other work. It was one of the worst hailstorms of record for the nation. (The Weather Channel)

1936: An average of the temperatures at 113 reporting stations in Iowa measured 106.5°, making this the hottest day in the state's history as of this date. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1943: Autumn was in the air with record low temperatures of 41° at Grand Rapids, MI and 43° at Muskegon, MI. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1953: Four heifers near St. Martin, MN were lucky. A tornado picked them up and set them back down again, unharmed. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1955: Diane crossed MD gave 1.09 inches of rain on 18th & brought flooding because of the heavy rain by the earlier storm Connie. Hurricane Diane became the second hurricane to strike the United States East Coast in less than a week. Diane weakened as it crossed colder water left in the wake of Hurricane Connie, but the rainfall did not diminish. The storm moved across the North Carolina coast then recurved to the northeast, passing very near Philadelphia, PA then to the southern coast of New England. Diane's heavy rains, up to 13 inches in the Poconos, added to those of Connie 5 days earlier, brought massive flooding to the Mid Atlantic and the northeast. Westfield, MA recorded 18.15 inches of rain in just 24 hours to establish the 24 hour mark for the state. Boston, MA had 8.40 inches, their greatest 24 hour total ever. At one point, 40% of Worcester, MA was under water. Up to 200 people were killed with $800 million dollars in damage.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History) (The Weather Channel) (More Information About Diane) Diane's Storm Track - NOAA. Gov. - National Hurricane Center

1980: Three inches of snow fell at McCall, ID, a sign of the changing seasons. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1983 - Hurricane Alicia ravaged southeastern Texas. The hurricane caused more than three billion dollars property damage, making it one of the costliest hurricanes in the history of the U.S. Just thirteen persons were killed, but 1800 others were injured. The hurricane packed winds to 130 mph as it crossed Galveston Island, and spawned twenty-two tornadoes in less than 24 hours as it made landfall. (The Weather Channel) (Storm Data)

1987 - Thirteen cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including Orlando FL with a reading of 98 degrees, and Portland ME with a high of 94 degrees. Newark NJ reached 90 degrees for the thirty-sixth time of the year, their second highest total of record. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Twenty-two cities, from the Carolinas to the Upper Ohio Valley, reported record high temperatures for the date, pushing the total number of daily record highs since the first of June above the 1100 mark. Afternoon highs of 102 degrees at Greensboro NC and 105 degrees at Raleigh NC equalled all-time records. Evening thunderstorms in Montana produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Scobey. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms over the Middle Atlantic Coast Region and the Upper Ohio Valley produced torrential rains in eastern Virginia during the late morning and afternoon hours. Totals ranged up to twelve inches at Yorktown. Williamsburg VA was deluged with 10.78 inches of rain between 6 AM and 10 AM, with 6.72 inches reported in just two hours. Flash flooding caused nearly twelve million dollars damage in Accomack County VA. Early evening thunderstorms in the Central High Plains Region produced walnut size hail and wind gusts to 80 mph around Casper WY. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in the Yellowstone Park area, causing fifteen mudslides. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1993: A squall line developed across western Iowa sending damaging winds over the west central portion of the state for a brief time. A tornado touched down west of Breda causing extensive damage to a farmstead and minor damage to another. Also, an 80 foot barn was destroyed by the tornado. High winds from the storm also overturned a tractor semi-trailer north of Carroll and caused extensive crop damage in the area. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1994: Residents who were in the path of the 1994 Lahoma storm in Oklahoma, awoke on this morning to find a strange world. The devastating wind and hail storm on the previous day had stripped nearly every tree of leaves in the Lahoma and Drummond areas. That, along with plowed fields from harvested wheat, left the August landscape looking eerily more like mid winter. Hail was still on the ground in some protected areas around Lahoma more than 24 hours after the storm. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2005: 27 tornadoes were documented in WI today, thus establishing its record for the greatest number of tornadoes reported in a calendar day. Most were F0 or F1, but an F3 storm killed 1, hurt 23 between Fitchburg and Rockdale. 4 other injuries reported.
(Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) (More Information About These Storms)

2008: During seven days in Florida, August 18–24, 2008, eleven people died and thousands of homes plus roads were damaged, from 60 mph winds and flooded rivers or tornadoes, as Fay traveled through the entire state. Fay was the first storm on record to hit the same U.S. state on four separate occasions, beating a record set by Hurricane Gordon of 1994, It was just the third storm on record to hit the U.S. at least 3 times. Fay was also the first storm to prompt storm warnings for the entire coast of Florida. The four separate landfalls were responsible for every stretch of the Florida coast to receive a Tropical Storm Watch or Warning, or a Hurricane Watch or Warning. The two highest rainfall amounts recorded were 27.65 inches at Windover Farms, 8 miles northwest of Melbourne, Florida, and 27.50 inches at Thomasville, Georgia. The amount of total insured damage compiled by the Property Claim Services of the Insurance Services Office, Inc., was $245 million dollars. This includes $195 million in Florida, $25 million in Georgia, and $25 million in Alabama. Flood damage losses reported by the National Flood Insurance Program were about $36 million dollars. Using a doubling of insured losses to obtain the total damage gives an estimate of Fay’s damage in the United States of about $560 million dollars. Fay's Storm Track - Weather Underground
(More Information About Hurricane Fay) (Ref. WxDoctor)

 

[SACRUS]

 

We'll see how low these go over the next 14 days

Aug dep through 8/17

EWR: +0
NYC: -0.2
JFK: -0.9
LGA: -1.0

 

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I hope we stay at these temps all day

Same 

Beautiful 

[SACRUS]

22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A cooler regime is now in place and it will remain in place for an extended period of time. Here's where things currently stand with respect to select high temperature thresholds for 2025:

 

Thanks, Don

 

technically (due to ties)

EWR:
90 degree days: 38 (7th place)
95 degree days:  14 (7th place)
100 degree days:   7 (3rd place)

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 100 °F
1993	1	9
1949	2	8
2025	3	7
2022	4	6
1953	4	6
1988	5	5
1966	5	5

 

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 95 °F
1993	1	25
2010	2	21
2022	3	20
1988	3	20
1944	3	20
2021	4	18
2012	5	17
2011	5	17
2002	5	17
1955	5	17
1949	6	16
2005	7	14
1953	7	14
2025	7	14

 

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 90 °F
2010	1	54
2022	2	49
1993	2	49
1988	3	43
2021	4	41
2002	4	41
1991	4	41
2016	5	40
1983	5	40
1959	5	40
1994	6	39
1944	6	39
2025	7	38

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Erin;s wake cooling things a bit - we'll see how this looks next week

 

[Sundog]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Erin;s wake cooling things a bit - we'll see how this looks next week

 

It's weird to see Hudson Bay below normal, what caused that this year?

[Brian5671]

24 minutes ago, Sundog said:

It's weird to see Hudson Bay below normal, what caused that this year?

No idea but I'm sure someone will now say "that'll help us this winter"

[nycwinter]

what a invigorating feel to the day it felt chilly outside..

[Brian5671]

sun working in from the NE here-up to 69

[uofmiami]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

It's weird to see Hudson Bay below normal, what caused that this year?

Wildfire smoke 

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

It's weird to see Hudson Bay below normal, what caused that this year?

And off Carolina's

[steve392]

We need this weather to stay, 68 degrees, cool, overcast, no humidity and a nice breeze! 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

It's weird to see Hudson Bay below normal, what caused that this year?

Possibly all of the wildfire smoke limiting insolation?

[MJO812]

Coast is really lucky that Erin is not directly going to hit it.