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August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks


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1 hour ago, STORMANLI said:

Miller Airport/ Tom's River (KMJX) seems to be a warm spot.

Soil type?

I think it is actually in Bayville.  I can attest that is a natural hotspot.  Once you are a few blocks away from Barnegat Bay, the heat just collects.  

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1 hour ago, STORMANLI said:

Miller Airport/ Tom's River (KMJX) seems to be a warm spot.

Soil type?

Very well may be. Sandy soils tend to heat up more quickly. Btw, there's a NJWxNet Mesonet station at Miller Airpark (separate from the AWOS), so you can always take a look at that too for corroboration with the KMJX reports:

https://www.njweather.org/station/1032

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1 hour ago, Sundog said:

It happens to be in an area that is 3 to 5 degrees warmer than everyone else. It's not a sensor problem. 

Look at me, during the day I equal or beat LGA for highs, northern Queens even in the east where it's suburban is just hotter than other spots that are actually more urban. 

 

I know, when I drive through that area, it's always a few degrees hotter than Manhattan and where I live.

I think Don mentioned this before, that area is very densely populated with a lot of traffic, I'm sure it has something to do with it.

 

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9 minutes ago, mgerb said:

Very well may be. Sandy soils tend to heat up more quickly. Btw, there's a NJWxNet Mesonet station at Miller Airpark (separate from the AWOS), so you can always take a look at that too for corroboration with the KMJX reports:

https://www.njweather.org/station/1032

it also cools down very quickly at night, sometimes even colder than KFOK

 

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30 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I think it is actually in Bayville.  I can attest that is a natural hotspot.  Once you are a few blocks away from Barnegat Bay, the heat just collects.  

its actually an ideal location for those of us who like temperature extremes because its hotter during the day and colder at night than most other areas.

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18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I know, when I drive through that area, it's always a few degrees hotter than Manhattan and where I live.

I think Don mentioned this before, that area is very densely populated with a lot of traffic, I'm sure it has something to do with it.

 

You may be referring to Western Queens, my area is not anymore populated than your area. 

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But Newark's temperatures are always 3-5 degrees hotter than the rest of the area.

Warmer than areas to the east like Long Island which get regular cooling sea breezes. A few NJ COOP sites have been warmer recently. Harrison has been pretty close. NJ just happens to be a very warm area away from the sea breeze. 

 

Data for June 21, 2025 through July 31, 2025 Average Maximum Temperarure
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
SEABROOK FARMS COOP 92.8
INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 92.6
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 91.5
Newark Area ThreadEx 91.5
HARRISON COOP 91.0
TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 90.7
OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 90.6
TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 90.5
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 90.2
BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP 90.0
Belvidere Area ThreadEx 90.0

 

map
Data for June 21, 2025 through July 31, 2025 Maximum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103
HARRISON COOP 103
Newark Area ThreadEx 103
OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 103
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 102
INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 102
Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 102
MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 101
LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 101
CANOE BROOK COOP 101
TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 101
ESTELL MANOR COOP 101
TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 101
SEABROOK FARMS COOP 100
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 100
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 100
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 100
SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 100
PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 100
SALEM COOP 100
EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 100
PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 100

 

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11 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

LB would be in heaven here, 100/55 outside, not a cloud to be seen on satellite imagery over the entire region (just snow capped mountains). It has not been a particularly hot summer here so far but we're roasting now.

Amazing to me to be in 100 degree heat but see snow in the distance. 

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Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and even lower 90s across the region. Far more impressive heat covered upstate New York, northern New England, southern Quebec, and New Brunswick. Near record to record highs were commonplace. Highs included:

Bangor: 96°
Buffalo: 91°
Burlington: 96°
Caribou: 94° (old record: 92°, 2020)
Concord: 97°
Manchester: 96°
Plattsburgh: 91° (tied record set in 1970)
Saranac Lake: 90°

Miramichi, NB hit 99°. That is its second highest temperature on record. Montreal also topped out at 94°.

Tomorrow through Thursday will be hot days across the region. Temperatures could top out in the lower and middle 90s in the hot spots. 

Aside from some showers or thundershowers Wednesday night into Thursday morning, mainly dry conditions will likely persist through at least the next weekend.

The guidance continues to step down toward a cooler period following next weekend. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was -10.80 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.449 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.2° (0.1° above normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Warmer than areas to the east like Long Island which get regular cooling sea breezes. A few NJ COOP sites have been warmer recently. Harrison has been pretty close. NJ just happens to be a very warm area away from the sea breeze. 

 

Data for June 21, 2025 through July 31, 2025 Average Maximum Temperarure
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
SEABROOK FARMS COOP 92.8
INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 92.6
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 91.5
Newark Area ThreadEx 91.5
HARRISON COOP 91.0
TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 90.7
OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 90.6
TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 90.5
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 90.2
BELVIDERE BRIDGE COOP 90.0
Belvidere Area ThreadEx 90.0

 

map
Data for June 21, 2025 through July 31, 2025 Maximum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103
HARRISON COOP 103
Newark Area ThreadEx 103
OCEAN COUNTY AIRPORT WBAN 103
ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 102
INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 102
Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 102
MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 101
LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 101
CANOE BROOK COOP 101
TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101
CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 101
ESTELL MANOR COOP 101
TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 101
SEABROOK FARMS COOP 100
HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 100
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 100
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 100
SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 100
PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 100
SALEM COOP 100
EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 100
PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 100

 

Hotter than the city too.  Even before the foliage issues, EWR had 10 more 90 degree days than NYC in 1993.  It's just a different climate in the oven of NJ, for the same reason that NJ gets more snow in the winter they get more heat in the summer.

 

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2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

LB would be in heaven here, 100/55 outside, not a cloud to be seen on satellite imagery over the entire region (just snow capped mountains). It has not been a particularly hot summer here so far but we're roasting now.

wow that sounds like absolutely perfect weather!

Great for the peak of the Perseids tonight too!

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