August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

80-82 in September is fine-that's extended summer to me.  Sun angle is lower so doesn't feel as hot

Forget the 80s, that's not what makes September a nice month. 

70s for highs and lower dews is what makes a nice September. 

Extended summer is just more 70 degree dewpoints and crap weather as far as I'm concerned. 

[Sundog]

Btw when it was in the 90s in October 2019 it felt hot as balls despite lower sun angle lol

[WestBabylonWeather]

16 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Was just thinking the same thing.  Never remember this frequency of quakes growing up.  Nothing beats the one back in the Spring of 24.  That was in a class by itself at least in my area.

Yes that’s the only one we felt personally here on LI. The basement door was shaking 

[SACRUS]

 

[Brian5671]

looks like fish storms there

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

looks like fish storms there

 

 

We;ll have to watch the wave(s) coming off Africa in the next week and with the expanding Atlantic ridge a west track towards the Caribbean the inland dev would be OTS like Dexter.

[SACRUS]

 

84 / 64 more haze sun

[bluewave]

55 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Eventually every season will just be summer/spring 

2009 was the last time that we had both a cool September and October.

 

[Sundog]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2009 was the last time that we had both a cool September and October.

 

 

And of course us on the coast didn't even get the below normal, we just finished normal :/

 

[Big Jims Videos]

September and October are the two best months at the beach.  This is fine. 

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Lately though we have cool weather in the first half of the month and then rebound to heat late month sometimes lasting well into October 

True, I've been keeping my pool open until the 1st week of Oct.  I have to use the heater due to the cooler nights, but worth it then to take a dip after work or on weekends.

[bluewave]

On 8/2/2025 at 7:19 AM, bluewave said:

We have seen this 2025 pattern in recent years during 2021 and 2017 when the highest temperatures of the year occurred in June. The most recent heatwave peaked several degrees lower.

So based on past statistics, the best chance for Newark to see 100° heat in August has been before August 15th since 1994.

1993 was the last time Newark reached 100° after August 15th.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Years with 100° days after August 15th
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1953-10-31	105	0
2	1948-10-31	103	0
3	1881-10-31	101	2
4	1993-10-31	100	0
-	1973-10-31	100	0

Dates of all August 100° heat at Newark since 1994

8-1-24…100°

8-9-22..101°

8-3-06..101°

8-13-05…102°

8-13-02…100°

8-9-01…..105°

Looking like models want to bring back the 100° heat for spots like Newark next week before the 15th. Be interesting to see if this matches recent history since 1994 of no 100s after August 15th.

But wouldn’t be surprised if we eventually end up getting late August into early September 100° heat again. Especially since the model runs over the last 5 days have really dried out the forecast pattern again after the locally flooding rains last week.

Not a great precedent to set for this much warmer climate if we can continue to reload 100° heat following these flash flood events. Past instances of these flooding events usually came after the 100s and we didn’t get follow up 100s. 

I was thinking as recently as a few days ago that maybe only a few warm spots in NJ could challenge 100° again. But the latest guidance is suggesting that 100° heat could also be possible in places like Queens.

So unfortunately we may be entering an even warmer phase of these already warmer to record warm summers since 2010. The posters that were suggesting that we could see a mid-August heatwave at least rivaling the one back in late July may turn out to be correct. Good call on your part. 
 

 

[Brian5671]

[ForestHillWx]

There was an interesting article re: the subterranean blob of molten mantle moving south west under New England, aged 80 million years from when Greenland broke off. Maybe that is impacting the old fault lines?

 

[wdrag]

Sea breeze boundary w LI. Showers now at 250 pm

[winterwarlock]

87 amd despite the milky haze a decent amount of sun today

[psv88]

September sucks because of yellowjackets

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looking like models want to bring back the 100° heat for spots like Newark next week before the 15th. Be interesting to see if this matches recent history since 1994 of no 100s after August 15th.

But wouldn’t be surprised if we eventually end up getting late August into early September 100° heat again. Especially since the model runs over the last 5 days have really dried out the forecast pattern again after the locally flooding rains last week.

Not a great precedent to set for this much warmer climate if we can continue to reload 100° heat following these flash flood events. Past instances of these flooding events usually came after the 100s and we didn’t get follow up 100s. 

I was thinking as recently as a few days ago that maybe only a few warm spots in NJ could challenge 100° again. But the latest guidance is suggesting that 100° heat could also be possible in places like Queens.

So unfortunately we may be entering an even warmer phase of these already warmer to record warm summers since 2010. The posters that were suggesting that we could see a mid-August heatwave at least rivaling the one back in late July may turn out to be correct. Good call on your part. 
 

 

I don’t see why we can’t reach 100 for many of us if we get another stretch of WNW downslope heat. Especially since like you said we’re not getting much rain over the next 5-7 days. Topsoil dries out very quick this time of the year as we can see with the browning lawns. 

[Dan76]

14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

September sucks because of yellowjackets

Yup and they last till NOV

[etudiant]

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

There was an interesting article re: the subterranean blob of molten mantle moving south west under New England, aged 80 million years from when Greenland broke off. Maybe that is impacting the old fault lines?

 

Please add the link, if possible. 

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Please add the link, if possible. 

Perhaps it is this story: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1092740?

[uofmiami]

19 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Please add the link, if possible. 

https://nypost.com/2025/08/04/science/mysterious-underground-blob-of-superhot-rock-moving-toward-nyc/

[Wannabehippie]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

84 / 64 more haze sun

Haze, or smoke? 

 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Thursday should clear out nicely - smokewise too hopefully.  The clouds part of the issue is rapidly clearing now but the smoke/haze is horrible.  Back part of the clouds cover to EPA.  Hazy sun by noon.

 

 

 

I've been coughing most of the day, I hope this stuff gets out of here, it's the worst I've seen since 2023.

In Detroit they're telling people to wear masks.

Lots of stuff going on, NJ just had their second quake and we have a Legionnaire's outbreak that has killed 2 people.

Maybe we should all be wearing masks.... and helmets too lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looking like models want to bring back the 100° heat for spots like Newark next week before the 15th. Be interesting to see if this matches recent history since 1994 of no 100s after August 15th.

But wouldn’t be surprised if we eventually end up getting late August into early September 100° heat again. Especially since the model runs over the last 5 days have really dried out the forecast pattern again after the locally flooding rains last week.

Not a great precedent to set for this much warmer climate if we can continue to reload 100° heat following these flash flood events. Past instances of these flooding events usually came after the 100s and we didn’t get follow up 100s. 

I was thinking as recently as a few days ago that maybe only a few warm spots in NJ could challenge 100° again. But the latest guidance is suggesting that 100° heat could also be possible in places like Queens.

So unfortunately we may be entering an even warmer phase of these already warmer to record warm summers since 2010. The posters that were suggesting that we could see a mid-August heatwave at least rivaling the one back in late July may turn out to be correct. Good call on your part. 
 

 

it doesn't look that abnormal, Newark hitting 100 isn't a huge surprise and neither is the densely populated and urbanized parts of northern Queens,  We need to get 100 here like we did in 1983 for it to be a big surprise.  Aside from the June outbreak, none of these heat dumps really compare to what we had in the 80s and 90s.

 

[donsutherland1]

Somewhat cooler air will move into the region following a dry frontal passage. The remainder of the week will see temperatures average somewhat below normal. Highs will mainly be in the upper 70s and lower 80s with lows falling into the upper 60s in New York City. 

A new round of heat could develop around or just after August 10th. Parts of the region could see a return of 90° or above heat. Extreme heat still appears unlikely, but the probability of such heat has increased somewhat.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was -18.03 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.216 today. 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I don’t see why we can’t reach 100 for many of us if we get another stretch of WNW downslope heat. Especially since like you said we’re not getting much rain over the next 5-7 days. Topsoil dries out very quick this time of the year as we can see with the browning lawns. 

it has to be on the same magnitude as what we had in 1983 when JFK hit 100 on August 20, 1983 (after it also hit 100 in the middle of July) for it to be historic.  100 at Newark or in Northern Queens isn't such a big deal, they are the UHI capitals of the country.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Sundog said:

 

And of course us on the coast didn't even get the below normal, we just finished normal :/

 

saves on heating costs, no need for below normal when it can't snow

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Yes that’s the only one we felt personally here on LI. The basement door was shaking 

you didn't feel the megaquake in August 2011?

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Sundog said:

Btw when it was in the 90s in October 2019 it felt hot as balls despite lower sun angle lol

95 degrees here that day with a 100 heat index