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August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks


wdrag
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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

80-82 in September is fine-that's extended summer to me.  Sun angle is lower so doesn't feel as hot

Forget the 80s, that's not what makes September a nice month. 

70s for highs and lower dews is what makes a nice September. 

Extended summer is just more 70 degree dewpoints and crap weather as far as I'm concerned. 

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16 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Was just thinking the same thing.  Never remember this frequency of quakes growing up.  Nothing beats the one back in the Spring of 24.  That was in a class by itself at least in my area.

Yes that’s the only one we felt personally here on LI. The basement door was shaking 

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

looks like fish storms there

 

 

We;ll have to watch the wave(s) coming off Africa in the next week and with the expanding Atlantic ridge a west track towards the Caribbean the inland dev would be OTS like Dexter.

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35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2009 was the last time that we had both a cool September and October.

IMG_4312.png.556874332c60e33597c60d7187a61dd5.png

IMG_4313.png.6fa7a0555acf314a7877a3221ffb5e8b.png

 

 

And of course us on the coast didn't even get the below normal, we just finished normal :/

 

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2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Lately though we have cool weather in the first half of the month and then rebound to heat late month sometimes lasting well into October 

True, I've been keeping my pool open until the 1st week of Oct.  I have to use the heater due to the cooler nights, but worth it then to take a dip after work or on weekends.

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On 8/2/2025 at 7:19 AM, bluewave said:

We have seen this 2025 pattern in recent years during 2021 and 2017 when the highest temperatures of the year occurred in June. The most recent heatwave peaked several degrees lower.

So based on past statistics, the best chance for Newark to see 100° heat in August has been before August 15th since 1994.

1993 was the last time Newark reached 100° after August 15th.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Years with 100° days after August 15th
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
1 1953-10-31 105 0
2 1948-10-31 103 0
3 1881-10-31 101 2
4 1993-10-31 100 0
- 1973-10-31 100 0

Dates of all August 100° heat at Newark since 1994

8-1-24…100°

8-9-22..101°

8-3-06..101°

8-13-05…102°

8-13-02…100°

8-9-01…..105°

Looking like models want to bring back the 100° heat for spots like Newark next week before the 15th. Be interesting to see if this matches recent history since 1994 of no 100s after August 15th.

But wouldn’t be surprised if we eventually end up getting late August into early September 100° heat again. Especially since the model runs over the last 5 days have really dried out the forecast pattern again after the locally flooding rains last week.

Not a great precedent to set for this much warmer climate if we can continue to reload 100° heat following these flash flood events. Past instances of these flooding events usually came after the 100s and we didn’t get follow up 100s. 

I was thinking as recently as a few days ago that maybe only a few warm spots in NJ could challenge 100° again. But the latest guidance is suggesting that 100° heat could also be possible in places like Queens.

So unfortunately we may be entering an even warmer phase of these already warmer to record warm summers since 2010. The posters that were suggesting that we could see a mid-August heatwave at least rivaling the one back in late July may turn out to be correct. Good call on your part. 
 

IMG_4315.thumb.png.269f5da69d4c178de4f122b4f111b2d7.png

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looking like models want to bring back the 100° heat for spots like Newark next week before the 15th. Be interesting to see if this matches recent history since 1994 of no 100s after August 15th.

But wouldn’t be surprised if we eventually end up getting late August into early September 100° heat again. Especially since the model runs over the last 5 days have really dried out the forecast pattern again after the locally flooding rains last week.

Not a great precedent to set for this much warmer climate if we can continue to reload 100° heat following these flash flood events. Past instances of these flooding events usually came after the 100s and we didn’t get follow up 100s. 

I was thinking as recently as a few days ago that maybe only a few warm spots in NJ could challenge 100° again. But the latest guidance is suggesting that 100° heat could also be possible in places like Queens.

So unfortunately we may be entering an even warmer phase of these already warmer to record warm summers since 2010. The posters that were suggesting that we could see a mid-August heatwave at least rivaling the one back in late July may turn out to be correct. Good call on your part. 
 

IMG_4315.thumb.png.269f5da69d4c178de4f122b4f111b2d7.png

 

I don’t see why we can’t reach 100 for many of us if we get another stretch of WNW downslope heat. Especially since like you said we’re not getting much rain over the next 5-7 days. Topsoil dries out very quick this time of the year as we can see with the browning lawns. 

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1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

There was an interesting article re: the subterranean blob of molten mantle moving south west under New England, aged 80 million years from when Greenland broke off. Maybe that is impacting the old fault lines?

 

Please add the link, if possible. 

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