August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[winterwx21]

90 with a dewpoint of 56 here. 90 feels pretty good with the low humidity. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

The BC forest fire situation has been relatively dormant all summer and these fires on Vancouver Island are relatively small and should be easier to fight than the massive blazes in remote areas of northern SK. Fire fighting in near-population parts of Canada is conducted in the same way as in the western U.S. and with the same success rates. There is no political foundation for any strategy of ending the forest fire risk by levelling our forests, in particular the progressives who control politics in Canada would go ballistic if anyone seriously suggested this. We've had bad forest fire seasons in the past too, this is not some new phenomenon. A large portion of northern Ontario was burned out in the summer of 1916. I can recall bad forest fire seasons in 1977 and 1980 in central Canada. Back in the day a thick forest fire haze was quite normal in the west, in an era before fire suppression began, and that is as recently as the 1920s and early 1930s. People only started to organize fire suppression in recent decades. 

The magnitude of the heat and drought in Canada is much more extensive this time around as the climate continues to warm. Those past events you referenced were normal occurrences back in the colder and more stable climate of the past. What has been occurring in Canada since 2023 is a whole new ballgame.

First, we had the historic 500mb ridge over Canada in May 2023 leading to the historic wildfire outbreak and record smoke pollution in places like NYC. This standing wave which drove the drought and fires was related to record warming in parts of the Pacific which helped to lock in the record heat and 500mb ridging in Canada from 2023 to the present.

Second, the current global political system is not capable of dealing with all the cascading effects of this rapid warming. So the response will have to be more driven by informed individuals that can make their own personal decisions on how to respond to this new climate. 

[Sundog]

It's 89 degrees here but because the dewpoint is in the 50s it feels perfectly fine outside. 

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, psv88 said:

Plenty of people who don’t fish use their boats. Coming from someone at the marina every week…also no sailboaters fish and they are out a lot as well. 
 

what keeps people from using their boats is kids sports and bad weather. That’s about it 

Yeah, we used to do many boat trips across the back bays in Nassau.  It’s a whole new world to explore out on the water. The bay houses are fun to see in person rather than at a distance from the shore. 

 

 

[doncat]

Went from 58° this am to 90° this afternoon.

[LoboLeader1]

89F here.

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, doncat said:

Went from 58° this am to 90° this afternoon.

had to flip the AC back on-was a nice 4 day break

[donsutherland1]

Newark hit 90° for the 31st time this year. That is tied with 1987 and 1994 for the fourth highest figure on record through August 4.

Tomorrow will be another very warm day with highs in the middle and upper 80s across the region. A cold front will cross the region afterward.

The frontal passage will likely be dry for most of the region. The remainder of the week will see temperatures average somewhat below normal.

A new round of heat could develop around or just after August 10th. Parts of the region could see a return of 90° or above heat. Extreme heat still appears unlikely.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was -19.66 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.253 today. 

 

[donsutherland1]

2025 is the 7th year during which Newark had 30 or more 90° or above highs by August 4th. Today was its 31st such day. Here's how things evolved during the prior six years:

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Newark hit 90° for the 31st time this year. That is tied with 1987 and 1994 for the fourth highest figure on record through August 4.

Tomorrow will be another very warm day with highs in the middle and upper 80s across the region. A cold smoke front will cross the region afterward.

The smoke frontal passage will likely be dry for most of the region. The remainder of the week will see temperatures average somewhat below normal.

A new round of heat could develop around or just after August 10th. Parts of the region could see a return of 90° or above heat. Extreme heat still appears unlikely.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was -19.66 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.253 today. 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

88 with 61 dew point

 

What fantastic summer weather

The high was 89 here at 3 pm before the sea breeze came in and it never felt even remotely hot.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Sneaky warm day-just hit 90. 

just missed it by 1 degree

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The magnitude of the heat and drought in Canada is much more extensive this time around as the climate continues to warm. Those past events you referenced were normal occurrences back in the colder and more stable climate of the past. What has been occurring in Canada since 2023 is a whole new ballgame.

First, we had the historic 500mb ridge over Canada in May 2023 leading to the historic wildfire outbreak and record smoke pollution in places like NYC. This standing wave which drove the drought and fires was related to record warming in parts of the Pacific which helped to lock in the record heat and 500mb ridging in Canada from 2023 to the present.

Second, the current global political system is not capable of dealing with all the cascading effects of this rapid warming. So the response will have to be more driven by informed individuals that can make their own personal decisions on how to respond to this new climate. 

those trees are no longer suitable in this new climate

my question is why are the effects so different in different places, they've become hot and dry while we've become warm and wet?

But I do think this also runs in cycles and will switch up, this was the first summer in which we hit 100 plus everywhere (that matters).  I think we're at the start of a new drier cycle with more classic summers with offshore flow like 1993 and 2010 to follow.  This summer was the first warning shot for what's to follow.

I remember saying this last winter and even last fall during our historically dry October at the start of the westerly flow outbreak too.  It's a characteristic of the switch to a -AMO.

Fewer east coast TC

drier and somewhat colder winters

and hotter and drier summers

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

2025 is the 7th year during which Newark had 30 or more 90° or above highs by August 4th. Today was its 31st such day. Here's how things evolved during the prior six years:

 

1993 and 2010 are at the head of the pack.

[WestBabylonWeather]

58.8 to start

88.9 as the high 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

58.8 to start

88.9 as the high 

perfect weather, the high range is a characteristic of low humidity / dew point

 

[FPizz]

3 hours ago, doncat said:

Went from 58° this am to 90° this afternoon.

55 to 88 here.  Was at Giants training camp today and it didn't feel too bad near the turf.

[SACRUS]

 

 

Highs:
 

TEB: 91
EWR: 90
ISP: 89
New Brnswck: 89
PHL: 89
LGA: 89
NYC: 89
TTN: 87
JFK: 86
ACY: 86
BLM: 83 * 

[SACRUS]

 

4 Day cool start to August

 

EWR:
 

8/1: 75 / 63 (-9)
8/2: 83 / 62 (-5)
8/3: 85 / 63 (-4)
8/4: 90 / 65 (0)

 

NYC:
8/1: 73 / 63 (-10)
8/2: 80 . 63 (-5)
8/3: 84 / 64 (-3)
8/4: 89 / 67 (+1)

LGA:
8/1: 73 / 64 (-10)
8/2: 81 / 65 (-6)
8/3: 84 / 67 (-3)
8/4: 89 / 71  (+1)

JFK:
8/1: 74 / 65 (-6)
8/2: 80 / 62 (-5)
8/3: 83 / 63 (-3)
8/4: 86 / 67 (+1)

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

55 to 88 here.  Was at Giants training camp today and it didn't feel too bad near the turf.

I hope the Giants will have a better year this upcoming season.

[Stormlover74]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I hope the Giants will have a better year this upcoming season.

I'd like to hope they can't get any worse

[psv88]

90 today

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'd like to hope they can't get any worse

I hope Jaxson Dart takes over the job very quickly for you guys. No use wasting any time with Russell Wilson. 

[wdrag]

I was wrong relying on EPS for the OH Valley potential rainfall here. GEFS looks far superior for late this week, well in advance. My wrong.

Now I worry about flash drought here in the Tri state, especially if we dont get late day convection. Wind ix not large but long days, high evapotranspiration and no rain are a concern imo, for. drought ion we cant get some decent rainfall in the next week or two. 

[TWCCraig]

Compared to other mornings, temperatures are a little slow to climb with all the smoke. Low of 63, only 67 right now. You were able to stare at the sun this morning, no sun glasses needed

[SACRUS]

 

71 / 67 - cloudy.   Clouds will limit any shot at 90 still warm / humid mid - upper 80s, enough sun could get the hotter spots to 90.  Cooler Wed, cloudy and isolated showers in the PM/ overnight.  Clear out Thu and a great stretch Thu - Sunday - mainly clear, dry and near to slightly below normal.  Flow comes around later on the 8/10-11 with a warm - hot / humid and wetter overall.  Heat more widespread Tue - Thu next week.  Flow still a bit onshore-ish.  Tropics activity but overall ridging into the EC, - warm - hot at times , more humid and wetter with frontal boundaries and tropical systems to be watched.  

 

8/5 - 8/10 :   Overall near normal - dry
8/11 - Beyond :  Warm- Hot - Humid - wetter overall - Tropical activity - heat 8/11 - 8/14 -tropics focus 8/15 onward.

 

(Ctrl + Refresh) to update live satellite loop

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 102 (1944)
NYC: 101 (1944)
LGA: 100 (1955)
JFK: 96 (2010)


Lows:

EWR: 57 (1951)
NYC: 56 (1951)
LGA: 57 (1972)
JFK: 60 (1959)


Historical:

 

1843 - A spectacular cloudburst near Philadelphia turned the small creeks and streams entering the Delaware River into raging torrents. As much as sixteen inches of rain fell in just three hours. Flooding destroyed thirty-two county bridges, and caused nineteen deaths. It is believed that several small tornadoes accompanied the torrential rains, one of which upset and sank more than thirty barges on the Schuylkill River. (David Ludlum)

1875: Several tornadoes moved across northern and central Illinois. One of the stronger tornadoes touched down in Warren and Knox County where it destroyed 25 homes and killed two people. Another in a series of tornadoes touched down near Knoxville and moved east into northern Peoria County. This estimated F4 tornado injured 40 people and was described by eyewitnesses as looking like a "monstrous haystack."


1904: Detroit Lakes woman is hit by lightning. It melted her hairpins and steel in corset but does not kill her.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1915: Fort Wayne, IN set their coldest August high temperature with 60°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1961 - The temperature at Ice Harbor Dam, WA, soared to 118 degrees to equal the state record established at Wahluke on the 24th of July in 1928. The afternoon high of 111 degrees at Havre, MT, was an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel)


1961: McAllen, Texas: McAllen sets a new record high on Wednesday when the temperature soars to 105 °F. McAllen has now set a new record high on all but one day so far this month. (Ref. WxDoctor)


1974: Fort Walton Beach, Fla.--Lightning struck an aluminum ladder at a construction project. The man on the ladder was killed, three nearby workmen were injured. (Ref. Lightning-The Underrated Killer.pdf)

1980: Hurricane Allen was one of the most intense hurricanes ever observed in the Atlantic. On this date, the hurricane reached Category 5 status for the first of three times during its long path across the Atlantic as reconnaissance aircraft measured a 911 millibars (26.90 inches of mercury) pressure in the eastern Caribbean while south of Puerto Rico. Later this day, Allen moved across Haiti, ruining much of the country's coffee crop and killing 220 people.Casper, WY established new record low of 39°; breaking the previous record by 9 degrees. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1983: Very heavy thunderstorms hit the southern portion of metro Denver, CO. 2.89 inches of rain fell in just 38 minutes causing widespread street flooding in southeast Denver. Two feet of water covered a section of Interstate 25. Hail up to golf ball size accompanied the storm in Littleton and Englewood along with 60 mph winds. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1987 - Severe thunderstorms raked eastern South Dakota. The thunderstorms spawned half a dozen tornadoes, produced softball size hail at Bowdle, and produced wind gusts to 90 mph south of Watertown. Hot weather continued in eastern Texas. Afternoon highs of 100 degrees at Houston and 106 degrees at Waco equalled records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Indiana and Lower Michigan to Pennsylvania and New York State during the day. Thunderstorms in Michigan produced wind gusts to 80 mph at Ashley, Hastings and Lennon. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Oklahoma, and from Iowa to the Upper Ohio Valley, with 216 reports of large hail or damaging winds between early Saturday morning and early Sunday morning. Thunderstorms moving across Iowa around sunrise produced extremely high winds which caused ten million dollars damage to crops in Carroll and Greene Counties. Thunderstorm winds at Jefferson IA reached 102 mph. Afternoon thunderstorms produced tennis ball size hail at Bay Mills, WI. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1995: Near Deerfield, KS, hail piled in huge drifts and stripped corn in a two mile wide swath. Hail drifts were still evident 24 hours later. Rain of over six inches in a short time caused flash flooding in the Deerfield area. Highway 50 was covered by three feet of water and was closed for several hours and limited to one way traffic for 24 hours. Sand was deposited on many streets bringing out heavy equipment to clear the debris. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1999: Governors of four Mid-Atlantic States imposed mandatory water restrictions as the worst drought in the history of the region continued. The period April through July ranked as the second driest ever for the Northeast, second only to 1965. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2000: A wet microburst with winds estimated at 120 mph caused heavy damage in and around Mitchell, SD. Apartments and several mobile homes were destroyed, vehicles were overturned, and other damage occurred to buildings and vehicles. Widespread tree and power line damage also occurred. 10 people were injured, although the majority of the injuries were minor. The damage path was approximately a mile and a half long and a mile wide, extending over the southwest part of Mitchell. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2002: Tropical Storm Bertha became the first tropical system of the 2002 Atlantic hurricane to make a U.S. landfall. Bertha dumped 7.15 inches of rain on Pascagoula, MS in 24 hours. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2020: Tropical Storm Isaias hit the eastern third of Virginia hardest on Tuesday morning during its brief but destructive journey up the Eastern Seaboard. Several hours of torrential rain flooded dozens of roads, while winds gusting past 45 mph downed trees and put hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses in the dark. The storm left scattered road closures and power outages in metro Richmond and more widespread disruption across the Tidewater region, where winds approached 70 mph. No serious damage was reported in the western half of the state. (Ref. The Richmond Times Dispatch)

[Dark Star]

8 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I hope Jaxson Dart takes over the job very quickly for you guys. No use wasting any time with Russell Wilson. 

I'll assume the two experienced QBs get the start and try to have a winning season.  If they fail, then we may see Dart, eventually, this season...

[SACRUS]

 

I think there were mostly sunny forecasts for today as recent as Sunday morning and many were showing partly cloudy / to partly sunny all day even last night or this early morning.   Looks like clouds or mainly cloudy till at least noon or 1 PM (besides the smoke/haze.

 

[FPizz]

55 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I'll assume the two experienced QBs get the start and try to have a winning season.  If they fail, then we may see Dart, eventually, this season...

He was practicing as the #2, but I'm guessing that was mostly to learn from Wilson