August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[jm1220]

Sneaky warm day-just hit 90. 

[winterwx21]

90 with a dewpoint of 56 here. 90 feels pretty good with the low humidity. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

The BC forest fire situation has been relatively dormant all summer and these fires on Vancouver Island are relatively small and should be easier to fight than the massive blazes in remote areas of northern SK. Fire fighting in near-population parts of Canada is conducted in the same way as in the western U.S. and with the same success rates. There is no political foundation for any strategy of ending the forest fire risk by levelling our forests, in particular the progressives who control politics in Canada would go ballistic if anyone seriously suggested this. We've had bad forest fire seasons in the past too, this is not some new phenomenon. A large portion of northern Ontario was burned out in the summer of 1916. I can recall bad forest fire seasons in 1977 and 1980 in central Canada. Back in the day a thick forest fire haze was quite normal in the west, in an era before fire suppression began, and that is as recently as the 1920s and early 1930s. People only started to organize fire suppression in recent decades. 

The magnitude of the heat and drought in Canada is much more extensive this time around as the climate continues to warm. Those past events you referenced were normal occurrences back in the colder and more stable climate of the past. What has been occurring in Canada since 2023 is a whole new ballgame.

First, we had the historic 500mb ridge over Canada in May 2023 leading to the historic wildfire outbreak and record smoke pollution in places like NYC. This standing wave which drove the drought and fires was related to record warming in parts of the Pacific which helped to lock in the record heat and 500mb ridging in Canada from 2023 to the present.

Second, the current global political system is not capable of dealing with all the cascading effects of this rapid warming. So the response will have to be more driven by informed individuals that can make their own personal decisions on how to respond to this new climate. 

[Sundog]

It's 89 degrees here but because the dewpoint is in the 50s it feels perfectly fine outside. 

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, psv88 said:

Plenty of people who don’t fish use their boats. Coming from someone at the marina every week…also no sailboaters fish and they are out a lot as well. 
 

what keeps people from using their boats is kids sports and bad weather. That’s about it 

Yeah, we used to do many boat trips across the back bays in Nassau.  It’s a whole new world to explore out on the water. The bay houses are fun to see in person rather than at a distance from the shore. 

 

 

[doncat]

Went from 58° this am to 90° this afternoon.

[LoboLeader1]

89F here.

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, doncat said:

Went from 58° this am to 90° this afternoon.

had to flip the AC back on-was a nice 4 day break

[donsutherland1]

Newark hit 90° for the 31st time this year. That is tied with 1987 and 1994 for the fourth highest figure on record through August 4.

Tomorrow will be another very warm day with highs in the middle and upper 80s across the region. A cold front will cross the region afterward.

The frontal passage will likely be dry for most of the region. The remainder of the week will see temperatures average somewhat below normal.

A new round of heat could develop around or just after August 10th. Parts of the region could see a return of 90° or above heat. Extreme heat still appears unlikely.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was -19.66 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.253 today. 

 

[donsutherland1]

2025 is the 7th year during which Newark had 30 or more 90° or above highs by August 4th. Today was its 31st such day. Here's how things evolved during the prior six years:

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Newark hit 90° for the 31st time this year. That is tied with 1987 and 1994 for the fourth highest figure on record through August 4.

Tomorrow will be another very warm day with highs in the middle and upper 80s across the region. A cold smoke front will cross the region afterward.

The smoke frontal passage will likely be dry for most of the region. The remainder of the week will see temperatures average somewhat below normal.

A new round of heat could develop around or just after August 10th. Parts of the region could see a return of 90° or above heat. Extreme heat still appears unlikely.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around July 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was -19.66 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.253 today. 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

88 with 61 dew point

 

What fantastic summer weather

The high was 89 here at 3 pm before the sea breeze came in and it never felt even remotely hot.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Sneaky warm day-just hit 90. 

just missed it by 1 degree

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The magnitude of the heat and drought in Canada is much more extensive this time around as the climate continues to warm. Those past events you referenced were normal occurrences back in the colder and more stable climate of the past. What has been occurring in Canada since 2023 is a whole new ballgame.

First, we had the historic 500mb ridge over Canada in May 2023 leading to the historic wildfire outbreak and record smoke pollution in places like NYC. This standing wave which drove the drought and fires was related to record warming in parts of the Pacific which helped to lock in the record heat and 500mb ridging in Canada from 2023 to the present.

Second, the current global political system is not capable of dealing with all the cascading effects of this rapid warming. So the response will have to be more driven by informed individuals that can make their own personal decisions on how to respond to this new climate. 

those trees are no longer suitable in this new climate

my question is why are the effects so different in different places, they've become hot and dry while we've become warm and wet?

But I do think this also runs in cycles and will switch up, this was the first summer in which we hit 100 plus everywhere (that matters).  I think we're at the start of a new drier cycle with more classic summers with offshore flow like 1993 and 2010 to follow.  This summer was the first warning shot for what's to follow.

I remember saying this last winter and even last fall during our historically dry October at the start of the westerly flow outbreak too.  It's a characteristic of the switch to a -AMO.

Fewer east coast TC

drier and somewhat colder winters

and hotter and drier summers

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

2025 is the 7th year during which Newark had 30 or more 90° or above highs by August 4th. Today was its 31st such day. Here's how things evolved during the prior six years:

 

1993 and 2010 are at the head of the pack.

[WestBabylonWeather]

58.8 to start

88.9 as the high 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

58.8 to start

88.9 as the high 

perfect weather, the high range is a characteristic of low humidity / dew point

 

[FPizz]

3 hours ago, doncat said:

Went from 58° this am to 90° this afternoon.

55 to 88 here.  Was at Giants training camp today and it didn't feel too bad near the turf.

[SACRUS]

 

 

Highs:
 

TEB: 91
EWR: 90
ISP: 89
New Brnswck: 89
PHL: 89
LGA: 89
NYC: 89
TTN: 87
JFK: 86
ACY: 86
BLM: 83 * 

[SACRUS]

 

4 Day cool start to August

 

EWR:
 

8/1: 75 / 63 (-9)
8/2: 83 / 62 (-5)
8/3: 85 / 63 (-4)
8/4: 90 / 65 (0)

 

NYC:
8/1: 73 / 63 (-10)
8/2: 80 . 63 (-5)
8/3: 84 / 64 (-3)
8/4: 89 / 67 (+1)

LGA:
8/1: 73 / 64 (-10)
8/2: 81 / 65 (-6)
8/3: 84 / 67 (-3)
8/4: 89 / 71  (+1)

JFK:
8/1: 74 / 65 (-6)
8/2: 80 / 62 (-5)
8/3: 83 / 63 (-3)
8/4: 86 / 67 (+1)

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

55 to 88 here.  Was at Giants training camp today and it didn't feel too bad near the turf.

I hope the Giants will have a better year this upcoming season.

[Stormlover74]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I hope the Giants will have a better year this upcoming season.

I'd like to hope they can't get any worse

[psv88]

90 today

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

I'd like to hope they can't get any worse

I hope Jaxson Dart takes over the job very quickly for you guys. No use wasting any time with Russell Wilson.