July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro not backing down for Thursday/Friday.

Moved north a bit but most models now showing a big rain event-details to be worked out

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

These always are wat overdone with convection involved .. robs moisture transport . They’ll be a narrow zone of a few inches but most likely NYC or NJ 

It looks very Stein the next few weeks, hopefully mid-week rain trends a bit more north

[weatherwiz]

The NAM/Euro may have a bit of convective feedback going on

[CoastalWx]

Euro is a little further north. Probably a good thing since I do agree with these sometimes being further south than modeled. 

[weatherwiz]

The front though does look like it would become parallel to the upper-level flow. There are some signals for a significant rainfall event but some of these signals could be overstated too. Have to see where we stand in the next 1-2 days

[CoastalWx]

Unlike winter, you don't have good advective processes to drive heavy precip further north. So what tends to happen is that the heaviest stuff is like srfc to 850 frontal zone. That also is where you have better MUCAPE too. So on the euro, you can see your 925-850 lows are more into SNE and hence why you have heavy precip. Just something to note.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Unlike winter, you don't have good advective processes to drive heavy precip further north. So what tends to happen is that the heaviest stuff is like srfc to 850 frontal zone. That also is where you have better MUCAPE too. So on the euro, you can see your 925-850 lows are more into SNE and hence why you have heavy precip. Just something to note.

That’s what I was thinking and trying to convey. Not saying it won’t rain, but models love doing this in summer .. and the day of radar looks Jack Dicked and you have the usuals posting busts 

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah I think we’re far from a lock, but whenever I see a setup like this in the middle of summer it’s worth taking note. The moisture feed looks impressive.

 

[kdxken]

Like clockwork 

 

[kdxken]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is a little further north. Probably a good thing since I do agree with these sometimes being further south than modeled. 

Does that mean no pool? 

 

[weatherwiz]

That is one hell of a thermal gradient though for the warm season across the region. That would be some hefty lift across the region along the warm front with some decent elevated CAPE. Would have to wonder though if convection across the mid-Atlantic robs any moisture...convection could be robust there. This is interesting and intriguing for sure. 

[kdxken]

Great, now Worcester's is broken. They gotta get a handle on it. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That is one hell of a thermal gradient though for the warm season across the region. That would be some hefty lift across the region along the warm front with some decent elevated CAPE. Would have to wonder though if convection across the mid-Atlantic robs any moisture...convection could be robust there. This is interesting and intriguing for sure. 

hm  looks like a potential prelude.  Like it may be a setting the table for something when we say we shoulda known 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

hm  looks like a potential prelude.  Like it may be a setting the table for something when we say we shoulda known 

It certainly seems like it. Looking at the NAM though you could probably also argue that 925/850 low could be overstated...even maybe on euro a bit but the weathermodel graphics are awful. I could see this going either way right now but it def has to be watched. 

[512high]

31 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Does that mean no pool? 

 

Did not hear one word he said, looking at the talent on his right! Big un's

[ineedsnow]

ukie is insane for parts of NJ Thursday and Friday 

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Fire one up!!!

Nah, I'm bad luck.  It never snows when I start the thread.

[ineedsnow]

big signal on the EPS for SNE 

[ineedsnow]

88/61 not terrible but still hot

[Go Kart Mozart]

Centralia, in down-state Illinois, seems like a pleasant spot today....94/81.

[powderfreak]

55 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Does that mean no pool? 

 

I kept waiting for her to do something lol.

Mark’s been reading up on the Twitter algorithm I see… 

[rclab]

21 minutes ago, 512high said:

Did not hear one word he said, looking at the talent on his right! Big un's

If nothing else it might improve the hearing. Stay calm, as always …..

 

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Centralia, in down-state Illinois, seems like a pleasant spot today....94/81.

My friend's place. 

 

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ukie is insane for parts of NJ Thursday and Friday 

That’ll be the zone most likely 

[Damage In Tolland]

86.3/72 here. Thankfully no mixing of 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’ll be the zone most likely 

Euro and EPS being north is cause for pause though

[dendrite]

43 minutes ago, 512high said:

Did not hear one word he said, looking at the talent on his right! Big un's

About as real as his degree

[dendrite]

32 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

big signal on the EPS for SNE 

Kuchie?

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Euro and EPS being north is cause for pause though

We’ve seen it do that lots of times over the years. It’ll move around 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

33 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

88/61 not terrible but still hot

Almost there. The coc is coming.