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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat


Typhoon Tip
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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

These always are wat overdone with convection involved .. robs moisture transport . They’ll be a narrow zone of a few inches but most likely NYC or NJ 

It looks very Stein the next few weeks, hopefully mid-week rain trends a bit more north

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Unlike winter, you don't have good advective processes to drive heavy precip further north. So what tends to happen is that the heaviest stuff is like srfc to 850 frontal zone. That also is where you have better MUCAPE too. So on the euro, you can see your 925-850 lows are more into SNE and hence why you have heavy precip. Just something to note.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Unlike winter, you don't have good advective processes to drive heavy precip further north. So what tends to happen is that the heaviest stuff is like srfc to 850 frontal zone. That also is where you have better MUCAPE too. So on the euro, you can see your 925-850 lows are more into SNE and hence why you have heavy precip. Just something to note.

That’s what I was thinking and trying to convey. Not saying it won’t rain, but models love doing this in summer .. and the day of radar looks Jack Dicked and you have the usuals posting busts 

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That is one hell of a thermal gradient though for the warm season across the region. That would be some hefty lift across the region along the warm front with some decent elevated CAPE. Would have to wonder though if convection across the mid-Atlantic robs any moisture...convection could be robust there. This is interesting and intriguing for sure. 

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19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That is one hell of a thermal gradient though for the warm season across the region. That would be some hefty lift across the region along the warm front with some decent elevated CAPE. Would have to wonder though if convection across the mid-Atlantic robs any moisture...convection could be robust there. This is interesting and intriguing for sure. 

hm  looks like a potential prelude.  Like it may be a setting the table for something when we say we shoulda known  <_<

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

hm  looks like a potential prelude.  Like it may be a setting the table for something when we say we shoulda known  ;)

It certainly seems like it. Looking at the NAM though you could probably also argue that 925/850 low could be overstated...even maybe on euro a bit but the weathermodel graphics are awful. I could see this going either way right now but it def has to be watched. 

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