Brian5671 Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro not backing down for Thursday/Friday. Moved north a bit but most models now showing a big rain event-details to be worked out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: These always are wat overdone with convection involved .. robs moisture transport . They’ll be a narrow zone of a few inches but most likely NYC or NJ It looks very Stein the next few weeks, hopefully mid-week rain trends a bit more north 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 The NAM/Euro may have a bit of convective feedback going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Euro is a little further north. Probably a good thing since I do agree with these sometimes being further south than modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 The front though does look like it would become parallel to the upper-level flow. There are some signals for a significant rainfall event but some of these signals could be overstated too. Have to see where we stand in the next 1-2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Unlike winter, you don't have good advective processes to drive heavy precip further north. So what tends to happen is that the heaviest stuff is like srfc to 850 frontal zone. That also is where you have better MUCAPE too. So on the euro, you can see your 925-850 lows are more into SNE and hence why you have heavy precip. Just something to note. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Unlike winter, you don't have good advective processes to drive heavy precip further north. So what tends to happen is that the heaviest stuff is like srfc to 850 frontal zone. That also is where you have better MUCAPE too. So on the euro, you can see your 925-850 lows are more into SNE and hence why you have heavy precip. Just something to note. That’s what I was thinking and trying to convey. Not saying it won’t rain, but models love doing this in summer .. and the day of radar looks Jack Dicked and you have the usuals posting busts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Yeah I think we’re far from a lock, but whenever I see a setup like this in the middle of summer it’s worth taking note. The moisture feed looks impressive. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Like clockwork 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is a little further north. Probably a good thing since I do agree with these sometimes being further south than modeled. Does that mean no pool? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 That is one hell of a thermal gradient though for the warm season across the region. That would be some hefty lift across the region along the warm front with some decent elevated CAPE. Would have to wonder though if convection across the mid-Atlantic robs any moisture...convection could be robust there. This is interesting and intriguing for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Great, now Worcester's is broken. They gotta get a handle on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 28 Author Share Posted July 28 19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: That is one hell of a thermal gradient though for the warm season across the region. That would be some hefty lift across the region along the warm front with some decent elevated CAPE. Would have to wonder though if convection across the mid-Atlantic robs any moisture...convection could be robust there. This is interesting and intriguing for sure. hm looks like a potential prelude. Like it may be a setting the table for something when we say we shoulda known 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: hm looks like a potential prelude. Like it may be a setting the table for something when we say we shoulda known It certainly seems like it. Looking at the NAM though you could probably also argue that 925/850 low could be overstated...even maybe on euro a bit but the weathermodel graphics are awful. I could see this going either way right now but it def has to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 31 minutes ago, kdxken said: Does that mean no pool? Did not hear one word he said, looking at the talent on his right! Big un's 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 ukie is insane for parts of NJ Thursday and Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Fire one up!!! Nah, I'm bad luck. It never snows when I start the thread. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 big signal on the EPS for SNE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 88/61 not terrible but still hot 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 Centralia, in down-state Illinois, seems like a pleasant spot today....94/81. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 55 minutes ago, kdxken said: Does that mean no pool? I kept waiting for her to do something lol. Mark’s been reading up on the Twitter algorithm I see… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 21 minutes ago, 512high said: Did not hear one word he said, looking at the talent on his right! Big un's If nothing else it might improve the hearing. Stay calm, as always ….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Centralia, in down-state Illinois, seems like a pleasant spot today....94/81. My friend's place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: ukie is insane for parts of NJ Thursday and Friday That’ll be the zone most likely 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 86.3/72 here. Thankfully no mixing of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’ll be the zone most likely Euro and EPS being north is cause for pause though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 43 minutes ago, 512high said: Did not hear one word he said, looking at the talent on his right! Big un's About as real as his degree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 32 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: big signal on the EPS for SNE Kuchie? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 15 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Euro and EPS being north is cause for pause though We’ve seen it do that lots of times over the years. It’ll move around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted July 28 Share Posted July 28 33 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 88/61 not terrible but still hot Almost there. The coc is coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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