July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean the RAP forecast FZL for like FIT is near 16,000 ft. So very warm, but just looking at the shape of CAPE, there is enough there in the growth zone. Kind of like what we had Sunday up here. It was a lower FZL, but it was mostly big drops with pennies and dimes mixed in.

I wonder if we get screwed by that feature which moves through in the morning and it results in just isolated activity later in the afternoon. A pretty pronounced wind shift occurs in the morning and we turn sfc winds more westerly (probably why this dropped the TOR area). But yeah I was just looking at some bufkit soundings and there is enough hail CAPE for the strongest of cores to have a shot. 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if we get screwed by that feature which moves through in the morning and it results in just isolated activity later in the afternoon. A pretty pronounced wind shift occurs in the morning and we turn sfc winds more westerly (probably why this dropped the TOR area). But yeah I was just looking at some bufkit soundings and there is enough hail CAPE for the strongest of cores to have a shot. 

Not your classic sounding for supercellular tornadoes for sure. BUT if you keep an eye on that 0-3 km shear value, if we can keep it near 30 kt it may be enough for QLCS brief tornadoes. That's really going to be most of our tornado cases anyway.

We don't get the long, looping hodographs unless it's 6/1/11 and you have hot dogs to sell.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Sorry kids. No Christmas this year

I've never seen anything like that widespread mortality.  No sign of a surface fire (little fir with thin bark, very susceptible).  No idea what happened; most fir death is from something like balsam wooly adelgid and that almost never attacks trees so small.

46 this morning, TD about 10° higher than yesterday but still shy of the stickies.  Four consecutive mostly sunny days in July is a rare occurrence here.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Not your classic sounding for supercellular tornadoes for sure. BUT if you keep an eye on that 0-3 km shear value, if we can keep it near 30 kt it may be enough for QLCS brief tornadoes. That's really going to be most of our tornado cases anyway.

We don't get the long, looping hodographs unless it's 6/1/11 and you have hot dogs to sell.

Maybe another microburst in the same area that got smoked Sunday 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Maybe another microburst in the same area that got smoked Sunday 

I could argue up to 112 mph if @dendrite's coops are well built and get swept away.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/1.html

[dendrite]

24 minutes ago, tamarack said:

I've never seen anything like that widespread mortality.  No sign of a surface fire (little fir with thin bark, very susceptible).  No idea what happened; most fir death is from something like balsam wooly adelgid and that almost never attacks trees so small.

46 this morning, TD about 10° higher than yesterday but still shy of the stickies.  Four consecutive mostly sunny days in July is a rare occurrence here.

Fungal disease apparently 

https://news.wsu.edu/press-release/2023/12/12/christmas-tree-scientists-work-to-identify-manage-grinchy-fungal-foes/

[kdxken]

80° / 52° not too shabby.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, MegaMike said:

Definitely! If CM1 missed this one (Reno), it likely can't resolve tornadoes unless (maybe) you beef up the model specs. 

The amount of resources to even run that simulation still gets me... A quarter of a trillion grid points, for a 42 minute simulation (time steps = 0.2s), that spans an area of ~5,600 miles^2 (~6x size of RI), and it took their cluster 3 days to run. That's crazy. Imagine running that for the entire U.S.?

The I.Q. of god? 

 

 

[OceanStWx]

24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Fungal disease apparently 

https://news.wsu.edu/press-release/2023/12/12/christmas-tree-scientists-work-to-identify-manage-grinchy-fungal-foes/

That URL

Grinchy fungal foes sounds like what happens when you get one of those sticky 70 degree Christmas Days and you haven't installed yet. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Franklin County needs rain. 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

I've never seen anything like that widespread mortality.  No sign of a surface fire (little fir with thin bark, very susceptible).  No idea what happened; most fir death is from something like balsam wooly adelgid and that almost never attacks trees so small.

46 this morning, TD about 10° higher than yesterday but still shy of the stickies.  Four consecutive mostly sunny days in July is a rare occurrence here.

What have you noticed about overall tree health this season? It appears to me at least in my area to be better than the last few.

[kdxken]

6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Plenty of summer heat and dews to go for all heading into and thru Augdewst 

Apparently you missed the memo.

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Fun morning paddling up the river in Royalston MA 

[Typhoon Tip]

Y'all cool weather thumpers may not wanna look at this Euro ... unless you want a dose of rat poison in your d-drip. I don't think I've seen the mean jet displaced this far N in any summer before...  It really starts to materialize around 200+ hrs and runs out to the end of the run.   More for muse then for now -

[TheBudMan]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Not your classic sounding for supercellular tornadoes for sure. BUT if you keep an eye on that 0-3 km shear value, if we can keep it near 30 kt it may be enough for QLCS brief tornadoes. That's really going to be most of our tornado cases anyway.

We don't get the long, looping hodographs unless it's 6/1/11 and you have hot dogs to sell.

 

14 years later (wow !) and its still funny every damn time..... 

[ineedsnow]

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Y'all cool weather thumpers may not wanna look at this Euro ... unless you want a dose of rat poison in your d-drip. I don't think I've seen the mean jet displaced this far N in any summer before...  It really starts to materialize around 200+ hrs and runs out to the end of the run.   More for muse then for now -

We thump the EPS 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Y'all cool weather thumpers may not wanna look at this Euro ... unless you want a dose of rat poison in your d-drip. I don't think I've seen the mean jet displaced this far N in any summer before...  It really starts to materialize around 200+ hrs and runs out to the end of the run.   More for muse then for now -

What hour is that?

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

Apparently you missed the memo.

 

Why do you post literally the biggest twidiot?   Perhaps he’s right but let’s face it, the man is appropriately named.

[weathafella]

More garbage humping the d10 op gfs 

[kdxken]

She's so cold ...like an ice cream cone 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Y'all cool weather thumpers may not wanna look at this Euro ... unless you want a dose of rat poison in your d-drip. I don't think I've seen the mean jet displaced this far N in any summer before...  It really starts to materialize around 200+ hrs and runs out to the end of the run.   More for muse then for now -

I’ll bet they ignore this post and find a tweet with a blue map.

[powderfreak]

I’m convinced we don’t look at model data anymore as a forum.

All we do is aggregate stuff other people look at or find.

Or maybe that’s just how everything is now.

[Damage In Tolland]

Sunday looks like a big severe day with warm front 

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I’m convinced we don’t look at model data anymore as a forum.

All we do is aggregate stuff other people look at or find.

Or maybe that’s just how everything is now.

I look to the experts who look at the models. 

"For approximately the northeastern quarter of the Lower 48 states,  below normal temperatures are favored, with odds of 60-70% indicated over much  of New England and northern New York. This is associated with a predicted  
deepening trough"

 

[powderfreak]

That day 7-14 signal is tough to ignore.

5-day 850mb means… something cooler is going to happen in there.  The ensembles are pretty bullish.

[Typhoon Tip]

32 minutes ago, kdxken said:

What hour is that?

" It really starts to materialize around 200+ hrs and runs out to the end of the run.   More for muse then for now -"

[MegaMike]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The I.Q. of god? 

 

 

 

More! 

(Tip's writing ability) x (Wiz's excitement over New England, severe weather)

I'm not a fan of heat, so I ran script to figure out the median date of the max. (Summer) daily temperature via GHCND .csv files (TMAX field). Based on what I ran (32 different records/1 per-year from 1994-2025), the median date is ~Jul. 13th for KBOX (labeled, 'NWS BOSTON/NORTON' at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/ghcnd-stations.txt). After July 24th, there's a good chance (75%) KBOX experienced their warmest day of the year.

Just for S&Gs.

[Torch Tiger]

49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ll bet they ignore this post and find a tweet with a blue map.

That euro shows our fabled "death ridge"!  Hope it's correct.  Let's go!

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

 

More! 

(Tip's writing ability) x (Wiz's excitement over New England, severe weather)

I'm not a fan of heat, so I ran script to figure out the median date of the max. (Summer) daily temperature via GHCND .csv files (TMAX field). Based on what I ran (32 different records/1 per-year from 1994-2025), the median date is ~Jul. 13th for KBOX (labeled, 'NWS BOSTON/NORTON' at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/ghcn/daily/ghcnd-stations.txt). After July 24th, there's a good chance (75%) KBOX experienced their warmest day of the year.

Just for S&Gs.

Heh...that might be the day after tomorrow given this 18z NAM solution... jesus

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

That euro shows our fabled "death ridge"!  Hope it's correct.  Let's go!

A splash of blue in a literal sea of red for next month . They’ll do anything they can for a few days near 80 first week of the month. It’s a clear show of desperation. They playing right into our hands .