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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat


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I saw a funny Instagram yesterday. It went something like,

    'They (meaning Texans) voted to dismantle the NOAA and the weather service; now, they are blaming the NOAA and national weather service for keeping them uninformed'  

I mean it was better than that delivery but something like that...  It's funny because like all humor, if there isn't a soupcon of truth about it, it's patently harsh sarcasm. 

It's like with the global warming denial stuff - people deny because they are enabled to deny.  It's that simple. 

Suppose there were a fist gripped around all testicles that squeezed every time a person attempted to deny that fist - pick whatever metaphor works for chicks.  A person would suddenly be (or become!) quite motivated in the "fist activism" movement wouldn't they.   If whenever a bloke flouted AGW an excruciating nut wrenching nausea occurred, there would be no problem and no denial.  Problem solved

But therein is the problem; GW moves too slow to sense the squeeze. The consequence escapes... I've mused in the past that the biggest problem with AGW is that it doesn't have any biological advocacy.  It doesn't appeal to the natural senses.  Disadvantaged by abstraction.   Humans, for all their achievements, still need the 'eeEEEyAAww!' factor or whatever the "warning" was doesn't truly penetrate and resonate inside their skulls. It's the root cause for all man's follies. Only then do the fuckers believe it. 

For some brilliant enlightened types, this is not true... but then again, intelligence ( fascinating coincidence ) seems to emerge in populations similarly to the "super fair" proportionality of economic distribution:  1% of the population seems to posses 90% of the right kind of intelligence. You know? like research and actually possessing the ability to not deny what is objectively true - 

What we've created of humanity since the Industrial Revolution (IR), is a "state of provision". It's a sociological problem really. We've been living through a 'techno-evolutionary experiment.'  One that probably began when tools started scoring better grades then native biologies, in the greater "Darwinian test".  Survival mechanics become necessarily less, if/where not obsolete.  Maybe automation, and now ... the LLM, chatGPT and the AI seemingly boundless potential - where's that goin'?   

See ... nature does not protect skill?  It sheds what isn't needed.  There are no organs in human biology ( for example ) that are just there... Black holes anchor whole galaxies. So it works in life or non-life contexts.  Everything serves a purpose in nature or nature vanquishes it.  Including human capacity - learning and being able to predict calamity based on that learning ..etc, is being lost.  And here's a delicious discovery, there is now scientific proof that the way one lives their life actually effects the DNA assemblage of their gametes. 

So our sperms are idiots, too!  A dip shit sperm ain't turnin' into no Einstein, y'all. 

The state of provision we all our steeped in that numbs us from reeling over the testicle squeezes for our approach to reality, appears it may even stupefy life; it gets passed on to our kids.  It's a slow moving zombie apocalypse to go along with the AGW one.  There's another metaphor that I like.   It has to do with stellar evolution.  The brighter a star shines, the faster it approaches its demise.  It may shine, out shine most the stars in it's stellar neighborhood, at the moment the core hits the iron fusion stage - it takes more energy to fuse iron further than the star is creating, so the mass/gravity balance with thermal pressure breaks down and the gravity wins.  This triggers the sequencing through a super nova.  As the super nova shock wave propagates toward the exterior the star, this can take 10 hours to breach the surface, at which point ... particle larger than photon gets expelled at relativistic outward speed, while the photons expand at the speed of light.  Is humanity in it's 10 hours?  

It's like we are effecting our own devolution in a scary way; nature provides a means to preprogram.  Tongue in cheek, but we are now instinctually arrogant in a presumptive proxy over the natural setting.  That's it, that's explanation for the Fermian Paradox.  The way the Law of Lessening Returns shows up in the process of evolution:   the crucible of evolution perfects a species to a state technology that ultimately removes the necessity for evolution in the first place - now that is a interesting catch-22.   I guess in a holistic argument ( for lack of better word - ) the salvation is in the technology itself.  Perhaps innovation will derive a means to store intelligence when it is not used - oh wait!  what do we have that does that? 

Anyway ...muse aside, there's definitely a stench of entitlement in modernity. Perhaps not even knowing what the consequences are.  People don't seem know when they are subjecting themselves to risk when they really should know better.  When you see and start analyzing the accounting of these hurricane aftermaths, or flood or etc earthquake this and that, there's always a part of you that wonders what in the fuck were they doing there in the first place?    

In Texas... it's 4 am with water boarding rain rates on going in or around a camping area that is situated on on over-due alluvial planar .. hm.  Pompeii was an attractive place to build a city.  Pompeiians were sort of apathetic to the warnings, too?  

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Doesn't look much much until late tomorrow into tomorrow evening. Maybe some elevated stuff tomorrow evening and overnight from the system lifting north from the Mid Atlantic.

Curious to see how widespread activity will be during that time frame...seems like there will be a weak west-to-east boundary within the region (maybe just a sea-breeze lifting north?) and that will be the focus for convection. Which if this pans out there will be a concern for flash flooding. Could see some training storms across northern CT into RI and probably just south of BOS. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Curious to see how widespread activity will be during that time frame...seems like there will be a weak west-to-east boundary within the region (maybe just a sea-breeze lifting north?) and that will be the focus for convection. Which if this pans out there will be a concern for flash flooding. Could see some training storms across northern CT into RI and probably just south of BOS. 

Yeah seems like it. Maybe some decent rainers. Could use it here, everything is crispy.

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You know what I've been thinking about...the term "showers" in say like scattered showers and thunderstorms or isolated showers and thunderstorms...showers doesn't even do it justice anymore. Need to start communicating them as downpours and thunderstorms. When you have dewpoints well into the 60's and especially 70's...these aren't just your regular showers anymore. 

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I'm pretty familiar with the Texas Hill country. Frankly, a spectacular area with rivers, springs, rolling hills and limestone cliffs. The area is home to many summer camps which families attend generationally. The storms that build up in this area are crazy. When I lived in Austin in the 80's there were a # of times when I would look west and thought the end of the world was coming due to the approaching storm intensity. 

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15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

You know what I've been thinking about...the term "showers" in say like scattered showers and thunderstorms or isolated showers and thunderstorms...showers doesn't even do it justice anymore. Need to start communicating them as downpours and thunderstorms. When you have dewpoints well into the 60's and especially 70's...these aren't just your regular showers anymore. 

yeah, more meme-able adjectives.  LOL   make it worth doom-scrolling time with quality dystopian addiction drip.  

j/k. 

I used to like the term "thundershowers"  ?    They used to have that in NOAA weather radio days of like circa 1978... I know ( dating myself...) because I was lad then, curled up with my AM radio like "normal kids" would cuddle a pet, waiting for the next pre-recorded run through of the forecast hoping and praying for a tornado watch.   

Anyway, when they said thundershowers, I knew it wasn't a big deal.  They said thunderstorms when there were elevated risk days. 

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48 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Curious to see how widespread activity will be during that time frame...seems like there will be a weak west-to-east boundary within the region (maybe just a sea-breeze lifting north?) and that will be the focus for convection. Which if this pans out there will be a concern for flash flooding. Could see some training storms across northern CT into RI and probably just south of BOS. 

 

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah seems like it. Maybe some decent rainers. Could use it here, everything is crispy.

Maybe there’s a touch of a signal on the high res, but I wonder if it’s underestimated? Although Chantal’s remnants are a shell of what they were in NC, a boundary and tropical remnants are usually a good mix for heavy rains. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Maybe there’s a touch of a signal on the high res, but I wonder if it’s underestimated? Although Chantal’s remnants are a shell of what they were in NC, a boundary and tropical remnants are usually a good mix for heavy rains. 

Yeah thought about that. Some signs of decent rains just north of WF...but nothing terribly exciting as modeled. It's definitely a recipe for a quick 2-3"+ if it trains for 60-90 min.

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2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Maybe there’s a touch of a signal on the high res, but I wonder if it’s underestimated? Although Chantal’s remnants are a shell of what they were in NC, a boundary and tropical remnants are usually a good mix for heavy rains. 

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah thought about that. Some signs of decent rains just north of WF...but nothing terribly exciting as modeled. It's definitely a recipe for a quick 2-3"+ if it trains for 60-90 min.

Overall the forcing is on the weak side, but its going to be quite unstable so it will be interesting to see how the convection plays out. There are subtle height falls through the day too. One thing which I think could be a wildcard too is the mid-level lapse rates aren't as terrible as you would think given the setup. Usually in these setups we're dealing with mid-level lapse rates around 5.5 C/KM or even less...we could be around 6 tomorrow...that's still not great but it may be an added boost. 

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

 

Overall the forcing is on the weak side, but its going to be quite unstable so it will be interesting to see how the convection plays out. There are subtle height falls through the day too. One thing which I think could be a wildcard too is the mid-level lapse rates aren't as terrible as you would think given the setup. Usually in these setups we're dealing with mid-level lapse rates around 5.5 C/KM or even less...we could be around 6 tomorrow...that's still not great but it may be an added boost. 

It seems like the timing is just a bit off too. If the remnants were plowing in a bit later tomorrow to sync with the front we’d really be in business. 

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It seems like the timing is just a bit off too. If the remnants were plowing in a bit later tomorrow to sync with the front we’d really be in business. 

Yeah timing not particularly favorable and instability will gradually wane during the evening. Probably going to be another big nowcasting day...the mesos have been extremely awful here in terms of convection. Will have to do a good ole fashion synoptic analysis in the morning and try to highlight local boundaries...that's where we'll see convection probably fire early afternoon (albeit isolated). Shouldn't have an issue reaching the convective temp tomorrow. 

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51 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Gorgeous in Goffstown. Everyone's out and about enjoying the nice wx

Wife and I went kayaking on our local lake. Saw 2 (maybe 3?) loons, a great blue heron (hadn’t see one there before) and the bald eagle.  Other than a couple of distance swimmers and a few kayaks, it was pretty empty.   Much different than July 4th when it was super busy. 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

You know what I've been thinking about...the term "showers" in say like scattered showers and thunderstorms or isolated showers and thunderstorms...showers doesn't even do it justice anymore. Need to start communicating them as downpours and thunderstorms. When you have dewpoints well into the 60's and especially 70's...these aren't just your regular showers anymore. 

AFDs will not infrequently add qualifiers like "heavy" or even "torrential" (have seen both from GYX).  Also, crying "wolf!" too often can lead to complacency.  GYX/CAR appropriately had both CWAs entirely in SVR-watches.  There were several warned storms and a lot of fierce-looking radar.  Only a handful if sites reported 1"", none over 1.5", and local cocorahs reports here were more like 0.12".  The ingredients were there, the watches posted, but the system underperformed.

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2 minutes ago, tamarack said:

AFDs will not infrequently add qualifiers like "heavy" or even "torrential" (have seen both from GYX).  Also, crying "wolf!" too often can lead to complacency.  GYX/CAR appropriately had both CWAs entirely in SVR-watches.  There were several warned storms and a lot of fierce-looking radar.  Only a handful if sites reported 1"", none over 1.5", and local cocorahs reports here were more like 0.12".  The ingredients were there, the watches posted, but the system underperformed.

ehh I don't think it's fair to say the system underperformed. I am assuming you are referring to July 3? Based on the reports received and on the SPC page, the watch certainly verified. Remember, there is nothing in the definition of a watch which measures or accounts for how widespread wind criteria/hail will be. The definition just relates to having ingredients favorable for thunderstorms to become strong to severe. 

But in terms of the rainfall, when it comes to thunderstorms things can become extremely localized and there just aren't enough reporting stations to fully capture what can/may be ongoing at a local level. For example, one town could get slammed under a thunderstorm and get 0.50"...0.75"...even 2" of rain while a town or two over just on the edge barely get 1/10th of an inch. 

Sometimes too with thunderstorms, it isn't about how much rain falls as much as it is about how much rain falls in an x amount of time. 0.75" of rain total may not be much but if that is falling in like 30 minutes...that could lead to some brief problems. 

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