July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[psv88]

47 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

93/76/106. Yep, gorgeous COC day. Feels like a sauna with a blazing lamp overhead. 

Horrific day today. Late day high of 90/77

[[email protected]]

The Park is a veg head again!

[TWCCraig]

88/78

Dew point of 79 at Westhampton KFOK

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out at 91F. A dew point of 72, ugh. 

[psv88]

Temp still rising here, up to 91

[donsutherland1]

After clouds broke, it turned hot across the region. High temperatures included:

Bridgeport: 90°
Islip: 90°
New York City-Central Park: 89°
New York City-JFK Airport: 92°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 93°
Newark: 95°

If today's high of 89° hold at Central Park, today would become the third day this year where all of the above locations except for Central Park reached 90°. That would break the record of two such days that was set in 2006 and tied in 2016.

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler and a warm and mainly dry weekend will follow.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening into Monday morning as a front moves across the region. There is some severe weather and excessive rainfall potential.

Behind the front, it will turn somewhat cooler on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday should feature bright sunshine, low humidity, and pleasant temperatures mainly in the lower 80s.

No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July. However, some of the guidance shows a brief surge of high heat late next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +5.48 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.111 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (1.5° above normal). 

 

 

[doncat]

Made it to 93° today...currently 91/73.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

After clouds broke, it turned hot across the region. High temperatures included:

Bridgeport: 90°
Islip: 90°
New York City-Central Park: 89°
New York City-JFK Airport: 92°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 93°
Newark: 95°

If today's high of 89° hold at Central Park, today would become the third day this year where all of the above locations except for Central Park reached 90°. That would break the record of two such days that was set in 2006 and tied in 2016.

Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler and a warm and mainly dry weekend will follow.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening into Monday morning as a front moves across the region. There is some severe weather and excessive rainfall potential.

Behind the front, it will turn somewhat cooler on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday should feature bright sunshine, low humidity, and pleasant temperatures mainly in the lower 80s.

No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July. However, some of the guidance shows a brief surge of high heat late next week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +5.48 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.111 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (1.5° above normal). 

 

 

Thanks for keeping track of that stat don. It was hot right down to the ocean today. 

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Thanks for keeping track of that stat don. It was hot right down to the ocean today. 

You’re welcome. There’s still a chance that it reaches or reached 90 between hours. We’ll know by around 8 pm.

[uofmiami]

91.1 in Syosset & 90.9 in Muttontown for highs today.

[Cfa]

88/80/105 right now. High was 91.

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, Jersey Andrew said:

No sign of a sea breeze? I loved taking LIRR out to Long Beach on weekends about ten years ago but now I’m not sure I could stomach the heat and humidity.

Winds were SW, not due S which muted some of the cooling effect and water temps now are 78 at Jones Beach, so not much cooling to be had anyway. They’ll go back down tomorrow when winds turn offshore. I wasn’t there today but the weatherbug stations hit 90 even on the barrier island. 

[donsutherland1]

Central Park reached 90° this evening, so 2025 remains tied with 2006 and 2016 for the most days on which temperatures at Bridgeport, Islip, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and Newark reached 90° or above and Central Park did not. All such days have occurred since 2000.

[WestBabylonWeather]

These clear sky, very warm summer nights are my favorite. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

I hope the rain doesn’t impact the ducks game or fireworks show Saturday night 

[donsutherland1]

Today was the fifth day this year that Bridgeport, Islip, Central Park, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, Newark, and White Plains all hit 90° or above. That is the most such occurrences in a year since 2022 when there were 7 such days. The record is 13 days in 2010.

[Intensewind002]

89/77 was the worst it got in Lindenhurst today, high was 91/74. Currently I'm at 89/73

[LibertyBell]

On 7/15/2025 at 8:51 PM, bluewave said:

The summer heat warms the SSTs in the NY Bight. 80°ocean temperatures during the 2020s summers have been fairly common around the peak summer SSTs.

But what is different this year is the reversal in departures from the winter. Due to the record westerly flow causing upwelling, the SSTs departures to our east were the coldest in over a decade during the winter. 

All the years over the last decade have carried warm winter departures into the summer. This was the first reversal from close to winter 2011 departures jumping into 2020s summer departures. 

I guess we are lucky that we didn’t see a Mediterranean or Japan style marine heatwave around +10°. That would have given us our first mid 80s ocean temperatures at the beaches. 

It makes me wonder what actually caused those marine heatwaves out there? Was the land that hot that it caused the ocean to also heat up so quickly, or did the oceanic currents somehow change to create a feedback effect to make long lasting marine heatwaves?  Japan is on the western side of the Pacific and since we're on the western side of the Atlantic, I feel like a similar thing could happen here one day.

 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was the fifth day this year that Bridgeport, Islip, Central Park, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, Newark, and White Plains all hit 90° or above. That is the most such occurrences in a year since 2022 when there were 7 such days. The record is 13 days in 2010.

wow 2010 is in first by a large amount, I wonder if we can get to around 10 this year.

[TWCCraig]

Temps starting to climb back up now that the "dry" front has passed. I was down to 84, now up to 87 with a dropping dew point

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:
 

 

EWR: 96
TEB: 95
PHL: 95  \\\
ACY: 94
LGA: 93
BLM: 93
New Brnswck: 92
JFK: 92  * 3rd day no intra hour highs 2pm / 8pm (likely went higher)
TTN: 91
ISP: 90
NYC: 90

[LibertyBell]

47 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Winds were SW, not due S which muted some of the cooling effect and water temps now are 78 at Jones Beach, so not much cooling to be had anyway. They’ll go back down tomorrow when winds turn offshore. I wasn’t there today but the weatherbug stations hit 90 even on the barrier island. 

Yes today was the second hottest day of the month, it was 93 here, behind the 95 we had last week.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

Highs:
 

 

EWR: 96
TEB: 95
PHL: 95  \\\
ACY: 94
LGA: 93
BLM: 93
New Brnswck: 92
JFK: 92  * 3rd day no intra hour highs 2pm / 8pm (likely went higher)
TTN: 91
ISP: 90
NYC: 90

Maybe JFK hit 93 like I did today.

[SACRUS]

 

Anyone have JFK 6 hour max/min

 

My source https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KJFK.html  is missing them the last few days and had similar gaps the last few years.

 

Odd they cant just add the max each hour 2025.

[LibertyBell]

On 7/16/2025 at 12:14 AM, Big Jims Videos said:

No, that would cause upwelling.  Onshore from east, northeast, or light southeast will also sustain warmth.  Strong west or strong southeast will upwell like I mentioned happened last summer. 

it would be interesting to see what summers had our highest SST and in which month they occurred.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 7/15/2025 at 11:22 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

You’re favorite days, the days when the south shore shoots well over 100 on a strong offshore flow often see brutally cold water temps. Near shore water temps were in the low 60s on the hottest day of the June heatwave with tons of upwelling. Super shock from the system to go from 100+ on the sand to water that chilly. 
The Gulf Stream is too far offshore to have any real effect on our waters. It follows the end of the continental shelf. Occasionally an eddy will spin off that gets relatively close. 
As far as effects on tropical activity, our exposure to a major is increasing. We have always been able to support a major up to the latitude of the Gulf Stream but then had a nice buffer to weaken storms that weren’t rocketing north like 38. Out waters still technically can’t support a major (allot of it is depth related) but the weaking effects of water around 26c aren’t that pronounced. 

Thanks, it would be interesting to see how quickly the ocean recovers from upwelling from these triple digit heatwaves.  It seems to have done so relatively quickly this year.  I wonder what the peak SST were in a summer like 2010 that was dry and hot most of the summer.  2011 peak heat was higher than 2010 but we switched to a wetter pattern in August with more onshore flow so maybe the SST were warmer in 2011 than they were in 2010?

 

[LibertyBell]

On 7/15/2025 at 9:17 PM, Monty said:

No. Ocean temps at our latitude are more a function of currents, mixing, and stagnation that air heat. 

Thanks, I wonder if a marine heatwave like what's happening east of Japan are possible here, because we're both on the western edge of a large ocean.

 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Anyone have JFK 6 hour max/min

 

My source https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KJFK.html  is missing them the last few days and had similar gaps the last few years.

 

Odd they cant just add the max each hour 2025.

I was informed that there are I.T. issues. They are being worked on.

[LibertyBell]

On 7/15/2025 at 8:28 PM, Brian5671 said:

Nope-the west winds push the warm water OTS and cooler water upwells from below....

It would be interesting to see how long it takes the ocean to recover from a bout of westerly winds.  It probably recovers more quickly later in the season, so if we have 100 degree heat in the latter third of July, the SST would rise more quickly once it ended?

 

[SACRUS]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it would be interesting to see what summers had our highest SST and in which month they occurred.

 

 

2022 from my recollection    https://www.fox29.com/news/atlantic-ocean-sets-records-for-warmth-down-at-the-jersey-shore?utm_source=chatgpt.com and 2016  https://www.cbsnews.com/philadelphia/news/jersey-shore-ocean-record-warm/?utm_source=chatgpt.com