July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

 

 

EWR: 90
PHL: 90
TEB: 90
New Brnswck: 89
LGA: 88
TTN: 88
ACY: 86
NYC: 86
BLM: 84
JFK: 83 * no intra hour readings
ISP: 79

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

if we have a 102 degree heatwave blasting westerly flow right into the ocean shouldn't that heat up the ocean even more?

I feel like the only reason onshore flow heats up near shore ocean waters is because it brings Gulf Stream waters closer to shore?

The summer heat warms the SSTs in the NY Bight. 80°ocean temperatures during the 2020s summers have been fairly common around the peak summer SSTs.

But what is different this year is the reversal in departures from the winter. Due to the record westerly flow causing upwelling, the SSTs departures to our east were the coldest in over a decade during the winter. 

All the years over the last decade have carried warm winter departures into the summer. This was the first reversal from close to winter 2011 departures jumping into 2020s summer departures. 

I guess we are lucky that we didn’t see a Mediterranean or Japan style marine heatwave around +10°. That would have given us our first mid 80s ocean temperatures at the beaches. 

[anthonymm]

4 hours ago, nycwinter said:

that what usually happens during summer months..

SST anomalies . Obviously the water gets warmer in summer lol

[Monty]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

if we have a 102 degree heatwave blasting westerly flow right into the ocean shouldn't that heat up the ocean even more?

I feel like the only reason onshore flow heats up near shore ocean waters is because it brings Gulf Stream waters closer to shore?

No. Ocean temps at our latitude are more a function of currents, mixing, and stagnation that air heat. 

[SACRUS]

 

[WE GOT HIM]

5 hours ago, uofmiami said:

This is awesome gonna go upstate

[SACRUS]

 

80 / 75 here dew points rising a bit and windows fogged over.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

if we have a 102 degree heatwave blasting westerly flow right into the ocean shouldn't that heat up the ocean even more?

I feel like the only reason onshore flow heats up near shore ocean waters is because it brings Gulf Stream waters closer to shore?

You’re favorite days, the days when the south shore shoots well over 100 on a strong offshore flow often see brutally cold water temps. Near shore water temps were in the low 60s on the hottest day of the June heatwave with tons of upwelling. Super shock from the system to go from 100+ on the sand to water that chilly. 
The Gulf Stream is too far offshore to have any real effect on our waters. It follows the end of the continental shelf. Occasionally an eddy will spin off that gets relatively close. 
As far as effects on tropical activity, our exposure to a major is increasing. We have always been able to support a major up to the latitude of the Gulf Stream but then had a nice buffer to weaken storms that weren’t rocketing north like 38. Out waters still technically can’t support a major (allot of it is depth related) but the weaking effects of water around 26c aren’t that pronounced. 

[Big Jims Videos]

5 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

Are cow nose rays common at point pleasant beach?

Yes.  We see them a lot. 

[Big Jims Videos]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

if we have a 102 degree heatwave blasting westerly flow right into the ocean shouldn't that heat up the ocean even more?

I feel like the only reason onshore flow heats up near shore ocean waters is because it brings Gulf Stream waters closer to shore?

No, that would cause upwelling.  Onshore from east, northeast, or light southeast will also sustain warmth.  Strong west or strong southeast will upwell like I mentioned happened last summer. 

[doncat]

89/71 temp split for Tuesday... Currently a very muggy 77/75 at midnight.

[wdrag]

No thread for this afternoon-Thursday activity. Small chance isolated 4+ along the southern edge of NYC subforum (I-195) but not threading.   Could be isolated severe per SPC. 

 

My main concern is Sunday...combined period of excessive rain and possibly two separate episodes of severe (warm front early morning and cold front in the afternoon). SVR not currently outlooked in the northeast but I think it will be in a day or two.  EPS combo plot as seen on Pivotal is of interest. 

 

 

 

[JustinRP37]

I am thoroughly impressed with the humidity this summer. At least the condensate lines won’t have as much trouble since they are flowing like a faucet! No chance for the water to stagnate! But our lab is still reporting very high tick activity. We should be getting out of peak nymph season before the larvae come out in August. The good thing about larvae is that they typically don’t carry disease since they haven’t fed on anything yet. 

 

I used to consider winter and summer as tied for my favorite season, but I am starting to enjoy winter the most. I went outside to watch the fireflies last night for 5 minutes and received over 5 mosquito bites. Summer is great though when you don’t have to work and are in the water.

[jm1220]

You can just feel that today will be another disgusting humid day. 

[bluewave]

Continuing to look like the late June heatwave will be the strongest of the summer especially east of NYC. Some model runs have mid 90s to around 100° next week as another 594 DM ridge builds to our west. But there will be a strong onshore flow so the best heat will probably be over NJ.

There have only been 9 years with the highest summer temperature occurring in June or making a tie with later in the season. Very impressive that this season is on track to be the 4th year since 2017.

The warmest summer temperature usually happens later on in the season. 
 

June Monthly Highest Max Summer Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	103	100	M	M	103
2021	103	97	99	91	103
2011	102	108	98	88	108
1994	102	99	95	92	102
1993	102	105	100	100	105
1952	102	98	92	94	102
1943	102	95	97	93	102
1988	101	101	99	86	101
1966	101	105	95	91	105
2024	100	99	100	87	100
1959	100	93	96	93	100
1953	100	99	102	105	105
1934	100	98	90	85	100
2017	99	98	93	92	99

[WestBabylonWeather]

lol. This dew point 

[SACRUS]

 

81 / 76 some low clouds otherwise mostly clear.  Hot / humid 48 hour period coming up low - mid 90s in the hot spots , mid - upper 90s Thu in the hottest areas.  storms scattered today and isolated tomorrow.   Warm / drier Fri - Sat mainly 80s, hottest areas to 90/low 90s.  Sunday next widespread storms/rains.  Near normal Moon -Wed before next round of heat / potentially stronger heat as ridge builds into the east by middle of next week into the weekend of the 26-27.

 

7/16 - 7/17 : Hot/Humid  widespread 90s - hottest spots mid-ipper 90s Thu
7/18 - 7/20 :   Warm - drier - Storms/rain focused on Sun PM
7/21 - 7/23 :  Normal / drier 80s
7/24 - 7/27 : Hotter - potential stronger heat 
7/28 - Beyond :   Warm  - Hot / Humid - potentially wetter 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 101 (1988)
NYC: 99 (1980)
LGA: 97 (2024)
JFK: 100 (1983)
New Brnswick: 101 (1995)


Lows:

EWR: 57 (1946)
NYC: 56 (1946)
LGA: 58 (1946)
JFK: 60 (1966) lb
New Brnswick: 49 (1903)

 

Historical:

1915: First 90° day of year in Baltimore in 1915 was July 16th the latest 90°F day ever recorded in the year. The latest 90°F day ever recorded in Washington, DC. was July 12, 1979.  (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1916: Beginning on the 15th ending on this date, North Carolina registered its record maximum 24 hour precipitation record as 22.22 inches fell at Altapass. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1920 - A severe hailstorm over parts of Antelope and Boone counties in Nebraska stripped trees of bark and foliage, ruined roofs, and broke nearly every window facing north. (The Weather Channel)

1946 - The temperature at Medford, OR, soared to an all-time high of 115 degrees to begin a two week heat wave. During that Oregon heat wave the mercury hit 100 degrees at Sexton Summit for the only time in forty years of records. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1969: An unusual tornado touched down at Churdan, IA and moved west-northwest slowly after touchdown. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1975 - An early afternoon thunderstorm raked the east side of Tucson, AZ, with gale force winds, heavy rain, and numerous lightning strikes. A thirteen year old boy was swept through a forty foot long culvert by raging waters before being rescued. (The Weather Channel)

 

1979: The most damaging tornado in Wyoming history touched down 3 miles west-northwest of the Cheyenne airport. This strong tornado moved east or east-southeast across the northern part of Cheyenne, causing $22 million in damage and one fatality. 140 houses and 17 trailers were destroyed. 325 other homes were damaged.  Four C-130 aircraft and National Guard equipment sustained $12 million damage. Municipal hangars and buildings suffered $10 million in losses.

1980: Millions of dollars in damage was done by a strong microburst and blinding rain that hit the south side of Chicago, IL during the morning. Winds were estimated to be as high as 100 mph in the microburst. Further west, the same storm system produced a tornado near the town of Hampshire, destroying two silos containing 48,000 pounds of corn. Bensalem, PA reported a wind gust of 102 mph. Philadelphia, PA measured a sustained wind speed of 47 mph with a gust to 70 mph. Thousands of trees were uprooted or broken apart, falling on automobiles, houses and other buildings. Up to 24 people were injured, mostly the result of flying debris, such as glass from blown out windows, portions of buildings or roofs, and falling or blowing limbs or trees. Hail up to the size of golf balls fell, and heavy downpours caused up to 3 inches of rain in spots. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1983: All time warmest morning in Washington, DC or highest minimum temperature ever recorded in Washington, DC. 84 °F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1987 - Showers and thundestorms in the southwestern U.S. ended a record string of thirty-nine consecutive days of 100 degree heat at Tucson, AZ. A thunderstorm at Bullhead City, AZ, produced wind gusts to 70 mph reducing the visibility to near zero in blowing dust. Southerly winds gusting to 40 mph pushed temperature readings above 100 degrees in the Northern Plains. Rapid City, SD, reported a record high of 106 degrees, following a record low of 39 degrees just three days earlier. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty-seven cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 96 degrees at Bluefield, WV, and 104 degrees at Charleston WV were all-time records, and afternoon highs of 98 degrees at Binghamton, NY, 99 degrees at Elkins, WV, and 103 degrees at Pittsburgh PA, tied all- time records. Highs of 104 degrees at Baltimore, MD, and 105 degrees at Parkersburg WV were records for July, and Beckley, WV, equalled their record for July with a high of 94 degrees. Martinsburg, WV, was the hot spot in the nation with a reading of 107 degrees. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms raked the northeastern U.S. with large hail and damaging winds. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms developing along a stationary front drenched the Middle Atlantic Coast States with heavy rain, causing flooding in some areas. More than five inches of rain was reported near Madison and Ferncliff, VA. Hot weather prevailed in Texas. San Angelo reported a record high of 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1993: The Great Midwest Flood continued as all bridges across the Mississippi River between Burlington, IA and St. Louis, MO; a stretch of 212 miles were closed by the flooding and would be shut down until the 20th. Across eastern South Dakota from the 16th through the 18th, flooding continued to wreak havoc. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 7 inches fell across portions of the northeast resulting in devastating flooding. Several dams and many roads were washed out in Marshall County. In the towns of Groton and Claremont at least 90% of the homes had water in the basements and city streets were breaking apart due to the weight of the water and water undermining the roads. An emergency dike broke near Milbank which sent water into the town. The breach forced the evacuation of over 200 people as 120 mobile homes and over 25 houses were affected by floodwater. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1995: A Mesoscale Convective Complex crossed the Adirondack Mountains and much of eastern New York during the early morning hours and bolted southeast, producing a very damaging derecho. The Adirondack Derecho was produced by thunderstorms which rose to heights of 70,000 feet, moved at forward speeds of 70 mph, produced winds to 106 mph and causing as many as 3,000 lightning strikes per hour. Hardest hit were the counties of Jefferson and Lewis where states of emergency were declared. Power was knocked out in all of Jefferson and Lewis counties for at least 12 hours, and in some cases, for days. The North Country was declared a disaster area by the Governor of New York State. Thousands of trees covering over one million acres were blown down in the Adirondacks. Five people were killed. Otis, MA recorded a wind gust of 92 mph.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1997: Henry County, VA a 42-year-old man in his yard was struck and killed by lightning. Lightning also killed 19 cattle at a farm. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

1998: Death Valley/Furnace Creek, CA reached 127°. This is only one degree lower than their record high of 128° since 1913. Death Valley/Greenland Ranch had five daily maximums ranging from 129° to 134° in July, 1913, but these extremely high observations are not supported by the maximums at surrounding stations during the same period. Trustworthy readings of 128° were attained in Death Valley in July 1972, and in June 1994. In June, 1994, a park ranger measured 131° at Badwater in Death Valley with a sling psychrometer. Badwater is typically a few degrees hotter than Furnace Creek on summer afternoons. Other memorable readings from this very hot day: 126° at Bullhead City, AZ.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2005: Casper, WY tied their daily record high at 104°. Denver, CO soared to a record of 102°. This record high was broken the next year. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2006: Valentine, Nebraska: Mercury soars to daily maximum temperature of 113 °F. (Ref. WxDoctor)

[Sundog]

20 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

lol. This dew point 

It's sickening, you can't enjoy anything outdoors. 

 

[SACRUS]

 

The euro is similar with stronger ridge  Jul 24 - 27 next potential strong heat (95+) , outside tomorrows inland areas.

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

heaviest rains focused into the Mid West and Central Gulf coast (Dexter?)   Sunday could see some heavy rain in isolated areas in this area.

 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, Sundog said:

It's sickening, you can't enjoy anything outdoors. 

 

Summer in all of its sweaty glory!

[bluewave]

SMQ is beating EWR for highest average heat index this July so far. The average daily high heat index is 95° so far at SMQ. This is currently a new July record just a slight bit above last year. We need to see the rest of the month to know if it will beat the July record last year. Newark is currently running at a 93° average heat index. But the dew point pooling over interior NJ has been very impressive.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&season=jul&varname=feel&agg=max&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Summer in all of its sweaty glory!

Hopefully 2 humidity free or light days coming Fri and Sat. But then sweaty breath comes roaring back. 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully 2 humidity free or light days coming Fri and Sat. But then sweaty breath comes roaring back. 

July is just brutal around here these days---AC on non stop.    Sun angle still strong.  August usually gives us a bit of break

[FPizz]

21 minutes ago, Sundog said:

It's sickening, you can't enjoy anything outdoors. 

 

It is fine.  WBGT is a better source for what it actually feels like vs heat index.  Use that instead, it is what many outdoor public jobs, sports teams and the military use.  

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 85F/DP 74/RH 72%

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

I am thoroughly impressed with the humidity this summer. At least the condensate lines won’t have as much trouble since they are flowing like a faucet! No chance for the water to stagnate! But our lab is still reporting very high tick activity. We should be getting out of peak nymph season before the larvae come out in August. The good thing about larvae is that they typically don’t carry disease since they haven’t fed on anything yet. 

 

I used to consider winter and summer as tied for my favorite season, but I am starting to enjoy winter the most. I went outside to watch the fireflies last night for 5 minutes and received over 5 mosquito bites. Summer is great though when you don’t have to work and are in the water.

IMO the mosquitoes have been a bigger problem than the ticks so far this year. As you mentioned they are about to be a bigger issue, not looking forward to that. 

[forkyfork]

what a beautiful summer morning

[LoboLeader1]

25 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

IMO the mosquitoes have been a bigger problem than the ticks so far this year. As you mentioned they are about to be a bigger issue, not looking forward to that. 

Tick bite cases have spiked here in the northeast.

https://www.fox5dc.com/news/emergency-room-visits-tick-bites-spike-northeast-cdc-data