July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

 

 

EWR: 90
PHL: 90
TEB: 90
New Brnswck: 89
LGA: 88
TTN: 88
ACY: 86
NYC: 86
BLM: 84
JFK: 83 * no intra hour readings
ISP: 79

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

if we have a 102 degree heatwave blasting westerly flow right into the ocean shouldn't that heat up the ocean even more?

I feel like the only reason onshore flow heats up near shore ocean waters is because it brings Gulf Stream waters closer to shore?

The summer heat warms the SSTs in the NY Bight. 80°ocean temperatures during the 2020s summers have been fairly common around the peak summer SSTs.

But what is different this year is the reversal in departures from the winter. Due to the record westerly flow causing upwelling, the SSTs departures to our east were the coldest in over a decade during the winter. 

All the years over the last decade have carried warm winter departures into the summer. This was the first reversal from close to winter 2011 departures jumping into 2020s summer departures. 

I guess we are lucky that we didn’t see a Mediterranean or Japan style marine heatwave around +10°. That would have given us our first mid 80s ocean temperatures at the beaches. 

[anthonymm]

4 hours ago, nycwinter said:

that what usually happens during summer months..

SST anomalies . Obviously the water gets warmer in summer lol

[Monty]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

if we have a 102 degree heatwave blasting westerly flow right into the ocean shouldn't that heat up the ocean even more?

I feel like the only reason onshore flow heats up near shore ocean waters is because it brings Gulf Stream waters closer to shore?

No. Ocean temps at our latitude are more a function of currents, mixing, and stagnation that air heat. 

[SACRUS]

 

[WE GOT HIM]

5 hours ago, uofmiami said:

This is awesome gonna go upstate

[SACRUS]

 

80 / 75 here dew points rising a bit and windows fogged over.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

if we have a 102 degree heatwave blasting westerly flow right into the ocean shouldn't that heat up the ocean even more?

I feel like the only reason onshore flow heats up near shore ocean waters is because it brings Gulf Stream waters closer to shore?

You’re favorite days, the days when the south shore shoots well over 100 on a strong offshore flow often see brutally cold water temps. Near shore water temps were in the low 60s on the hottest day of the June heatwave with tons of upwelling. Super shock from the system to go from 100+ on the sand to water that chilly. 
The Gulf Stream is too far offshore to have any real effect on our waters. It follows the end of the continental shelf. Occasionally an eddy will spin off that gets relatively close. 
As far as effects on tropical activity, our exposure to a major is increasing. We have always been able to support a major up to the latitude of the Gulf Stream but then had a nice buffer to weaken storms that weren’t rocketing north like 38. Out waters still technically can’t support a major (allot of it is depth related) but the weaking effects of water around 26c aren’t that pronounced. 

[Big Jims Videos]

5 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

Are cow nose rays common at point pleasant beach?

Yes.  We see them a lot. 

[Big Jims Videos]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

if we have a 102 degree heatwave blasting westerly flow right into the ocean shouldn't that heat up the ocean even more?

I feel like the only reason onshore flow heats up near shore ocean waters is because it brings Gulf Stream waters closer to shore?

No, that would cause upwelling.  Onshore from east, northeast, or light southeast will also sustain warmth.  Strong west or strong southeast will upwell like I mentioned happened last summer. 

[doncat]

89/71 temp split for Tuesday... Currently a very muggy 77/75 at midnight.

[wdrag]

No thread for this afternoon-Thursday activity. Small chance isolated 4+ along the southern edge of NYC subforum (I-195) but not threading.   Could be isolated severe per SPC. 

 

My main concern is Sunday...combined period of excessive rain and possibly two separate episodes of severe (warm front early morning and cold front in the afternoon). SVR not currently outlooked in the northeast but I think it will be in a day or two.  EPS combo plot as seen on Pivotal is of interest. 

 

 

 

[JustinRP37]

I am thoroughly impressed with the humidity this summer. At least the condensate lines won’t have as much trouble since they are flowing like a faucet! No chance for the water to stagnate! But our lab is still reporting very high tick activity. We should be getting out of peak nymph season before the larvae come out in August. The good thing about larvae is that they typically don’t carry disease since they haven’t fed on anything yet. 

 

I used to consider winter and summer as tied for my favorite season, but I am starting to enjoy winter the most. I went outside to watch the fireflies last night for 5 minutes and received over 5 mosquito bites. Summer is great though when you don’t have to work and are in the water.