July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[psv88]

Rain showers around all day today. Never cleared. High of 85. These showers only added up to 0.07, but the middle of the island had another cloudy and miserable day. 

[Brian5671]

34 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

that what usually happens during summer months..

of course the water warms, but it was below normal and now much above-that's an impressive swing.

[nycwinter]

i was watching the weather on news 4 ny and they said dewpoint friday will be in the low 50's and saturday in the upper 40's is that true?

[uofmiami]

12 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

i was watching the weather on news 4 ny and they said dewpoint friday will be in the low 50's and saturday in the upper 40's is that true?

[Brian5671]

Wow nice....that's a welcome change for a couple of days.

[uofmiami]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Wow nice....that's a welcome change for a couple of days.

Looks to be a brief break of one day only, but it'll be welcomed for sure.

[nycwinter]

On 7/10/2025 at 11:43 PM, nycwinter said:

looking forward to the end of next week when a legitimate cold front will hopefully pass through with a reduction in humidity at least one can hope..

SnoSKi14 don't see that 

[donsutherland1]

Following yesterday's deluge, today was a much drier day. Some showers or thundershowers could return to the region tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. 

It will turn somewhat warmer tomorrow with temperatures rising through into the middle and upper 80s. The heat will likely peak on Thursday with highs topping out in the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s. A warm and mainly dry weekend will follow.

No widespread and sustained excessive or record-challenging heat appears likely through the first three weeks of July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.1°C for the week centered around July 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +2.09 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.295 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 71% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (1.5° above normal). 

 

[LoboLeader1]

Topped out @ 88 today. DP & RH didn't help.

Dew Point

72 F

Humidity

65 %

[Big Jims Videos]

The ocean temp at Point Pleasant Beach yesterday afternoon was close to 80 degrees. Went for a swim after work. Warmest I've ever felt this time of year.  Great flip from the endless upwellings we experienced last summer. Also a bunch of cow nose rays scared folks out of the water before I got there as folks thought they were sharks. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

19 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

The ocean temp at Point Pleasant Beach yesterday afternoon was close to 80 degrees. Went for a swim after work. Warmest I've ever felt this time of year.  Great flip from the endless upwellings we experienced last summer. Also a bunch of cow nose rays scared folks out of the water before I got there as folks thought they were sharks. 

All the gaurds I work with and we have about 1000 years between us are saying it’s the warmest it’s been this early. Usually you get a day or two in the high 70s in August. Unless we see a reversal to strong westerly’s, sustained low 80s are possible in August. 

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

[Sundog]

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

As long as we're posting random days here is next week Tuesday and Wednesday:

[winterwarlock]

Hit a very late high of 90 with a rare full sun afternoon  for this summer

 

4th heatwave will be achieved with another 90 tomorrow

[forkyfork]

18 minutes ago, Sundog said:

As long as we're posting random days here is next week Tuesday and Wednesday:

keep hope alive

[Wannabehippie]

58 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said:

The ocean temp at Point Pleasant Beach yesterday afternoon was close to 80 degrees. Went for a swim after work. Warmest I've ever felt this time of year.  Great flip from the endless upwellings we experienced last summer. Also a bunch of cow nose rays scared folks out of the water before I got there as folks thought they were sharks. 

Are cow nose rays common at point pleasant beach?

[wdrag]

 No new thread til st least 730AM Wednesday.  Possibly none till Saturday 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

80° SSTs now just east of NJ.

15 E Barnegat Li 1630            78 80  

we're primed up for tropical season

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been one of the more impressive SST rebounds that we have seen from the spring into the summer. There was a significant cold pool to our east from the winter into the spring due to the record westerly flow leading to upwelling. This pattern has reversed with the persistent onshore flow and warmth this summer. The bouy east of Barnegat, NJ has a 81° water temperature today.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44091

Water Temperature (WTMP):

81.0 °F

 

if we have a 102 degree heatwave blasting westerly flow right into the ocean shouldn't that heat up the ocean even more?

I feel like the only reason onshore flow heats up near shore ocean waters is because it brings Gulf Stream waters closer to shore?

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Nibor said:

Hazy day.

nice that looks like a live cam lol

[Dan76]

1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said:

Are cow nose rays common at point pleasant beach?

This time of year their common in NY NJ they eat clams,crabs and wreak havoc wherever they go. They suck!

[Brian5671]

56 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

if we have a 102 degree heatwave blasting westerly flow right into the ocean shouldn't that heat up the ocean even more?

I feel like the only reason onshore flow heats up near shore ocean waters is because it brings Gulf Stream waters closer to shore?

Nope-the west winds push the warm water OTS and cooler water upwells from below....

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

 

 

EWR: 90
PHL: 90
TEB: 90
New Brnswck: 89
LGA: 88
TTN: 88
ACY: 86
NYC: 86
BLM: 84
JFK: 83 * no intra hour readings
ISP: 79

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

if we have a 102 degree heatwave blasting westerly flow right into the ocean shouldn't that heat up the ocean even more?

I feel like the only reason onshore flow heats up near shore ocean waters is because it brings Gulf Stream waters closer to shore?

The summer heat warms the SSTs in the NY Bight. 80°ocean temperatures during the 2020s summers have been fairly common around the peak summer SSTs.

But what is different this year is the reversal in departures from the winter. Due to the record westerly flow causing upwelling, the SSTs departures to our east were the coldest in over a decade during the winter. 

All the years over the last decade have carried warm winter departures into the summer. This was the first reversal from close to winter 2011 departures jumping into 2020s summer departures. 

I guess we are lucky that we didn’t see a Mediterranean or Japan style marine heatwave around +10°. That would have given us our first mid 80s ocean temperatures at the beaches. 

[anthonymm]

4 hours ago, nycwinter said:

that what usually happens during summer months..

SST anomalies . Obviously the water gets warmer in summer lol

[Monty]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

if we have a 102 degree heatwave blasting westerly flow right into the ocean shouldn't that heat up the ocean even more?

I feel like the only reason onshore flow heats up near shore ocean waters is because it brings Gulf Stream waters closer to shore?

No. Ocean temps at our latitude are more a function of currents, mixing, and stagnation that air heat. 

[SACRUS]

 

[WE GOT HIM]

5 hours ago, uofmiami said:

This is awesome gonna go upstate

[SACRUS]

 

80 / 75 here dew points rising a bit and windows fogged over.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

if we have a 102 degree heatwave blasting westerly flow right into the ocean shouldn't that heat up the ocean even more?

I feel like the only reason onshore flow heats up near shore ocean waters is because it brings Gulf Stream waters closer to shore?

You’re favorite days, the days when the south shore shoots well over 100 on a strong offshore flow often see brutally cold water temps. Near shore water temps were in the low 60s on the hottest day of the June heatwave with tons of upwelling. Super shock from the system to go from 100+ on the sand to water that chilly. 
The Gulf Stream is too far offshore to have any real effect on our waters. It follows the end of the continental shelf. Occasionally an eddy will spin off that gets relatively close. 
As far as effects on tropical activity, our exposure to a major is increasing. We have always been able to support a major up to the latitude of the Gulf Stream but then had a nice buffer to weaken storms that weren’t rocketing north like 38. Out waters still technically can’t support a major (allot of it is depth related) but the weaking effects of water around 26c aren’t that pronounced.