July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[golfer67]

2 hours ago, Santa Claus said:

i don’t think this is physiologically true but 80/78 feels worse to me than 102/80.  my body is a nucleation point, i am becoming a giant drop of water.  i am setting my apple watch workout to Outdoor Swim

Today definitely felt significantly more gross to me than last Tuesday when we hit 100 here 

[Sundog]

Somerville is reporting 80 degrees with an 80 degree dewpoint and fog/mist. 

What is this insanity

[Wannabehippie]

30 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Somerville is reporting 80 degrees with an 80 degree dewpoint and fog/mist. 

What is this insanity

That sounds so gross.

 

[forkyfork]

56 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Somerville is reporting 80 degrees with an 80 degree dewpoint and fog/mist. 

What is this insanity

the least humid summer for the rest of your life

[Sundog]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the least humid summer for the rest of your life

Don't count out stratospheric aerosol injection. 

Or nuclear winter. 

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:

 

PHL: 91
EWR: 91
TTN: 90
New Brnswck: 89
TEB: 88
JFK: 87
LGA: 87
NYC: 87
ACY: 86
BLM: 86 *
ISP: 84

[Sundog]

I'd like to know how bad things have to get before people are like fcck it just do the stratospheric aerosol injection. 

I would have already dropped planetary temperatures down to pre industrial levels if I was king of the world. 

To be fair, I would also be massively transitioning to clean energy and simultaneously be slowly easing off the aerosols over time. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

26 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I'd like to know how bad things have to get before people are like fcck it just do the stratospheric aerosol injection. 

I would have already dropped planetary temperatures down to pre industrial levels if I was king of the world. 

To be fair, I would also be massively transitioning to clean energy and simultaneously be slowly easing off the aerosols over time. 

I would have a second Manhattan project but for fusion. Problem solved. 

[doncat]

Missed the rain again with just 0.02"...high of ,88° with the se wind.

[donsutherland1]

Through July 7, Bridgeport, Islip, JFK Airport, and White Plains are in the top 3 for the number of 70° or above lows to date.

Bridgeport: 8 days (tied second with 1974 and 1999)
Islip: 9 days (tied third with 2002)
JFK Airport: 12 days (third)
White Plains: 7 days (third)

The combined figure of 36 days also ranks as the third highest. Eight of the ten highest figures through July 7 have occurred since 2000, including three since 2020 (2021, 2024, and 2025).

 

[bluewave]

SMQ set their all-time highest dew point temperature of 83° back in June. They just came in 2nd with a dew point of 81 yesterday. So a record amount of atmospheric moisture around the world leading to the numerous extreme flooding events. The SPC HREF has a 2”-3”+ max potential with the better storm coverage for later today.

 

[wdrag]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

SMQ set their all-time highest dew point temperature of 83° back in June. They just came in 2nd with a dew point of 81 yesterday. So a record amount of atmospheric moisture around the world leading to the numerous extreme flooding events. The SPC HREF has a 2”-3”+ max potential with the better storm coverage for later today.

 

Thought about a combined SVR-FF thread but HREF not as impressive with max qpf as prior threaded event.  No doubt there will be iso 2-3" problems.  Noted SPC conservative on SVR so for now...opted to leave all obs right here in the July thread.

Will be offline most of the day.

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Thought about a combined SVR-FF thread but HREF not as impressive with max qpf as prior threaded event.  No doubt there will be iso 2-3" problems.  Noted SPC conservative on SVR so for now...opted to leave all obs right here in the July thread.

Will be offline most of the day.

 

Active convective pattern next few weeks. So it doesn’t look like the late June heat will be able to be matched through the reliable forecast period. But a generally warmer pattern with plenty of convection opportunities. 
 

Through July 14th

July 14-21

[SACRUS]

 

80 / 73.  Hot / humid with scattered storms later today.  More of the same tomorrow, with a more widespread rain/storms on Thursday into Friday. Overall warm - hot / humid and wetter pattern with hotter expansion by mid month. as ridge builds heighets east

 

7/8 - 7/9 : Hot / humid 90s, scattered storms - rain hvy isolated
7/10 - 7/14 :  Warm- and humid overall wetter
7/15 - beyond : Hotter 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 105 (1993)
NYC: 100 (1993)
LGA: 99 (1994) 
JFK: 97 (1971)
New Brnswck: 101 (2010)



Lows:

EWR: 56 (1948)
NYC: 56 (1894)
LGA: 60 (1984)
JFK: 59 (2018)
New Brnswck: 51 (1979)


Historical:
 

1680: The first confirmed tornado death in the United States occurred in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The funnel was filled with, stones, bushes, and other things. The tornado also unroofed a barn and snapped many large trees.


1788: Hail piled up to a depth of 34 inches at Canterbury, CT. The melting ice caused significant flooding. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1816 - Frost was reported in low places throughout New England. (David Ludlum)

1886: Sleepy Eye, Minnesota: Nearly every home in the small community are moved off its foundation by the severe thunderstorms which come in the night. Across Swift and Brown Counties, the storms produce high winds and intense hail. (Ref. WxDoctor)

1916: The remnants of the July 5th hurricane that struck the Gulf Coast drifted north and east near Birmingham, AL. The Magic City received 8.84 inches of rain in 24 hours, which is their all-time record. Another hurricane would make landfall near Pensacola, FL later in the month and dump more heavy rain on Birmingham, where the monthly rainfall total reached 20.16 inches, a monthly record that still stands. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1936: The greatest heat wave on record gets underway across Michigan. Grand Rapids saw high temperatures at or above 100° on six of the next seven days, including an all-time record high of 108° on the 13th. Lansing, MI maximum temperature was 101° on the 14th. Temperatures soared to 105° at Toronto, Ontario Canada on three consecutive days through the 10th. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1950 - The town of York, NE, was deluged with 13.15 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1975 - Three people were killed and six others were injured when lightning struck a walnut tree near Mayo, FL. The nine people were stringing tobacco under a tin shed when the bolt hit the nearby tree. (The Weather Channel)

1984: Cool Canadian air settled in across the Great Lakes region. Many record low temperatures were set including: Alpena, MI: 38°, Youngstown, OH: 44°, Muskegon, MI: 45°, Cleveland, OH: 45°, Detroit, MI: 45°, Pittsburgh, PA: 45°, Grand Rapids, MI: 46°, South Bend, IN: 47°, Buffalo, NY: 47°, Chicago, IL: 48°, Columbus, OH: 49°, Dayton, OH: 49°, Erie, PA: 50°, Indianapolis, IN: 51° and Cincinnati, OH: 51°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1987 - Thunderstorms in the central U.S. produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Waterloo, IA, 6.38 inches of rain at Tescott, KS, and twenty-five minutes of ping-pong ball size hail at Drummond, OK. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thirty cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Beckley, WV, equalled their all-time record with a high of 93 degrees. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms spawned seven tornadoes in Adams and Logan counties of eastern Colorado, and hail caused 2.3 million dollars damage in Adams, Logan and Washington counties. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Sixteen cities in the central and western U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 103 degrees at Denver, CO, equalled their record for July, and a 110 degree reading at Rapid City, SD, equalled their all-time record high. Denver reported a record five straight days of 100 degree heat, and Scottsbluff, NE, reported a record eight days in a row of 100 degree weather. (The National Weather Summary)


1991: DCA high temperature was 97° - severe thunderstorms with winds to 62 mph; 0.95 rain in only 15 minutes and one-inch hail in parts of Northern Virginia.  (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1992: Severe thunderstorms produced a very long downburst at Concordia, KS. Peak one minute sustained winds reached 108 mph at Concordia Airport and exceeded 60 mph for over 20 minutes. Six people were injured and damage was estimated at $25 million dollars.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1993: New record high temperature was recorded at DCA of 100° and a minimum of 78°. The old record was 98° set in 1890.
(Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1993: Iowa: A wild weather night in the middle of the Great Flood of 1993 across Iowa as the State records its 37th day of rain in the last 40 days. Many tornado sightings reported. Manilla, Iowa records 7.5 inches of rain; 7.83 inches in Jefferson.  Massive flooding rocked portions of eastern South Dakota. Residents were cleaning up from tremendous flooding which occurred from July 3rd to July 7th. Flash flooding resulted from thunderstorms which moved across southeast South Dakota dumping 3 to 6 inch rains on already saturated ground. (Ref. WxDoctor)  (Ref. More Information on This Storm)

1999: One of the worst flash flood events in Las Vegas, NV history occurred on this date damaging roads and buildings, sweeping away vehicles and bringing the entire city almost to a standstill from late morning through late afternoon. Thunderstorms formed over the elevated west side of the valley and began dumping heavy rain between 10 and 11 AM PDT. The storms slowly drifted to the east producing rainfall amounts over 1.5 inches across a substantial part of the metro area and some localized amounts topping 3 inches. Electricity was knocked out for a few hours to 2,500 customers and some gas lines were broken by the force of the water. An estimated $25 million dollars in damage occurred to both public and private property. On July 20th, President Clinton declared the event a federal disaster. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2003: What may be the world's highest dew point temperature was recorded at Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, in the Persian Gulf. A dew point of 95 degrees was recorded at 3 PM while the air temperature was 108 degrees. The apparent temperature at that time would have been 172 degrees.

2006: In Tonopah, Nevada a man and his son stepped out of their pickup truck to check the tires. Lightning struck, killing the boy and throwing the father to the ground. The boy's mother and sister were in the pickup and were not hurt. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA)

2008: A strong microburst produced straight line wind damage in the Hurricane Deck and Osage Beach areas of Camden County in central Missouri. The winds were estimated at 80 to 90 mph and did extensive damage to docks and boats in the area. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


2009: A tornado passed through the city of Dickinson, ND, on the far south side, mainly just south of the Heart River. From their eye witness accounts, and from video obtained by the Dickinson Police Department, it is likely that this was a rain-wrapped tornado, and very difficult if not impossible to see. The tornado occurred before sunset, yet it was described as being as dark as night during the event. Over 450 structures were damaged, of which nearly 100 were declared completely destroyed or beyond repair. Numerous vehicles were damaged or destroyed, some were on their roofs. From that it was determined that peak wind speeds in the tornado were on the order of 150 mph. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

[SACRUS]

 

Slow moving Miami Style storms sunny to rain to sun  later  and continued wet/storms potential the next week.  

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Ridge into the east (Euro is similar/stonger to the gfs)  Some strong heat more widespread may come in 48-72 hour shots once to 7/15 and beyond

[SACRUS]

 

 

Chantal offshore - next boundary into PA

 

[Brian5671]

insane moisture levels

[donsutherland1]

Frequency of measurable rainfall at New York City (Central Park). Note: The darker bars are days on which 5% or more of the years saw 1.00" or more daily rainfall.

Years with 1.00" or More Rainfall at Central Park on July 8:

1870: 1.00"
1883: 1.01"
1899: 1.80"
1964: 1.05"
1987: 1.10"
2005: 1.46"
2021: 2.27" (Daily Record)

July 8 Daily Rainfall Records:

Bridgeport: 1.73", 2005
Islip: 1.42", 2005
New York City-Central Park: 2.27", 2021
New York City-JFK Airport: 1.30", 2005
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 1.24", 1987
Newark: 1.61", 1899
White Plains: 1.46", 2005

2005 had the highest combined total for the three New York City sites (JFK, LGA, NYC) at 3.93". 2021 was second at 3.54".

2005 also had the highest combined total for the seven New York City Area sites with 9.71".

[Intensewind002]

82/77 as of 9 AM here

[Stormlover74]

Lol hrrr (through midnight tonight)

[Snowlover11]

83F Feeling like 89.

73 Dew

[psv88]

83/77

[SACRUS]

 

88 / 73

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, Sundog said:

Seriously though the worst part of this different climate is the absurd levels the dewpoints reach now on a routine basis. 

 

Yes the heat is fine, it's the humidity that really sucks.

Convert all that useless water vapor to drinkable water and you have multiple benefits of reducing life destroying floods and giving drinking water to millions.

 

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

These 75°+ dewpoints have become the new normal for us over the last decade.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=yes&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=12N&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2025&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=js

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=yes&q=161&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=12N&var=max_dwpf&dir=aoa&thres=75&month=all&year=2025&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=js

 

Yes, this much more so than the heat.

 

[LibertyBell]

57 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Frequency of measurable rainfall at New York City (Central Park). Note: The darker bars are days on which 5% or more of the years saw 1.00" or more daily rainfall.

Years with 1.00" or More Rainfall at Central Park on July 8:

1870: 1.00"
1883: 1.01"
1899: 1.80"
1964: 1.05"
1987: 1.10"
2005: 1.46"
2021: 2.27" (Daily Record)

July 8 Daily Rainfall Records:

Bridgeport: 1.73", 2005
Islip: 1.42", 2005
New York City-Central Park: 2.27", 2021
New York City-JFK Airport: 1.30", 2005
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 1.24", 1987
Newark: 1.61", 1899
White Plains: 1.46", 2005

2005 had the highest combined total for the three New York City sites (JFK, LGA, NYC) at 3.93". 2021 was second at 3.54".

2005 also had the highest combined total for the seven New York City Area sites with 9.71".

This might also be why there are no 100+ record high temperatures between July 24-30.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

Chantal offshore - next boundary into PA

 

Tony, I know the forecast is for *scattered showers* but in reality it should be scattered showers for inland locations and partly to mostly sunny near the coast.  Because that's what always seems to happen in these patterns and that's what we had yesterday and so far today.

There's a clear difference between inland areas and coastal areas in terms of rain and sunshine.

 

[FPizz]

84/75