June 2025 Obs/Disco

[weatherwiz]

22 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

Embrace the NAM while you can, weenies.

Change is coming.

Interesting. Assuming this could be a big positive in more resources would be available for the RRFS instead of running all these various short-term mesos.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Going to need a hoodie and pants the next couple days, What a roller coaster week.

So oppressive summeh has not locked in until Halloween? Shocked..

[Torch Tiger]

Nice sunny mild day in Bellingham. Take

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

COC day

And more coming… 

[Typhoon Tip]

50 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Seeing a lot of talk about a heatwave due to slowing global winds. He's an example 

 

could you please repost this in the July thread ? 

[dendrite]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I always drink a few when viewing model output

Shocking

[Lava Rock]

Nice bike ride up to roxbury. Too bad tomorrow blows

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[FXWX]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Interesting. Assuming this could be a big positive in more resources would be available for the RRFS instead of running all these various short-term mesos.

Would not want to lose the HREF... 

[weatherwiz]

32 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Would not want to lose the HREF... 

Was shocked to see that mentioned. Isn't that a "newer product anyways"? I forgot when HREF became operational but I feel like it was at least in the last 10 years?

[OceanStWx]

On 6/25/2025 at 2:54 PM, dendrite said:

@OceanStWx Can you get early access to the raw 1-min data?

I could have if I had been at work. 

On 6/25/2025 at 3:01 PM, dendrite said:

I swear I remember it being 5 min unless it was changed.

As far as I know it is still 5 min. Temps are taken every min, and the high temp is the highest 5 min average. The only 2 min check I know on temps is to ensure they aren't more than 10 deg different on the 1 min obs (if they are it is set to missing).

Winds are 2 min, so maybe that's the confusion.

[radarman]

Is the rrfs available online so we can see how it does with convection?

The 3km is hit or miss to say the least but the hrrr is borderline unusable IMO, at least around here

[OceanStWx]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Interesting. Assuming this could be a big positive in more resources would be available for the RRFS instead of running all these various short-term mesos.

That's the theory of the case anyway. Instead of pouring resources into multiple models, we can focus all our energy on making the RRFS really good. 

Of course the FV3 core was really not great for convection and had to be scrapped. So now we're starting over with MPAS for a core. 

In an ideal world you would have the GFS/GEFS for longer range, RRFS/REFS for the inside 60 hours, and WoFS for storm scale, event driven cases. 

[OceanStWx]

43 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Would not want to lose the HREF... 

 

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Was shocked to see that mentioned. Isn't that a "newer product anyways"? I forgot when HREF became operational but I feel like it was at least in the last 10 years?

It was like 2017ish. 

It was a bit of a Frankenstein "model". We really wanted some sort of probabilistic convective scale guidance, but it takes a lot of computing to run a large CAM ensemble. So somebody smarter than me decided to take what we already had running (ARW, HRRR, NSSL, etc) and turn them into a poor man's ensemble along with the 12 hour old versions of the same models. 

Pros: it provides some probability-like forecast parameters, it has a range of models/convective cores that can provide insight when biases are known.

Cons: it is not a true ensemble, as you would prefer one core and the entire range of possibilities for that. 

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

That's the theory of the case anyway. Instead of pouring resources into multiple models, we can focus all our energy on making the RRFS really good. 

Of course the FV3 core was really not great for convection and had to be scrapped. So now we're starting over with MPAS for a core. 

In an ideal world you would have the GFS/GEFS for longer range, RRFS/REFS for the inside 60 hours, and WoFS for storm scale, event driven cases. 

This would probably help with the idea of "too many tools in the box". There are so many models and data to digest, who really has time to do all of that? If the energy and focus can be spent on a few models to improve assimilation and initialization that would go a substantial way in improving forecast accuracy and confidence. 

[OceanStWx]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This would probably help with the idea of "too many tools in the box". There are so many models and data to digest, who really has time to do all of that? If the energy and focus can be spent on a few models to improve assimilation and initialization that would go a substantial way in improving forecast accuracy and confidence. 

Clearing out some of the computing resources also potentially leads to more model runs. There are ways to get more data out of this.

[CT Rain]

25 minutes ago, radarman said:

Is the rrfs available online so we can see how it does with convection?

The 3km is hit or miss to say the least but the hrrr is borderline unusable IMO, at least around here

The RRFS is on weatherbell for sure. It does OK from what I can see. 

My bigger question is how it does in the cold season - cold air damming, mesoscale banding, etc. 

[CoastalWx]

I actually think the HRRR is decent inside 24 hrs. I've found it useful for trends etc. Maybe it doesn't nail the placement of cells perfectly, but overall I like it. The other night for example...it had these random downpours develop after midnight. It was strange to see at that time of night from a cold front sliding south. Sure enough, they popped especially just south of me. 

[OceanStWx]

13 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The RRFS is on weatherbell for sure. It does OK from what I can see. 

My bigger question is how it does in the cold season - cold air damming, mesoscale banding, etc. 

Not great, Bob. 

That's going to be my biggest loss with the NAM.

[radarman]

the nam was pretty often the first model to sniff out that the mid-levels are going to torch way inland... I dunno, that's my impression at least, others would be better qualified.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Not great, Bob. 

That's going to be my biggest loss with the NAM.

Hopefully it shows the coastal front going to ORH with a 1040 high north of CAR.

[bristolri_wx]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Was shocked to see that mentioned. Isn't that a "newer product anyways"? I forgot when HREF became operational but I feel like it was at least in the last 10 years?

Is HREF in production?  I thought the SREF is what is considered official, while the HREF is considered experimental/testing...

NEVERMIND - @OceanStWx answered the questions :-)

[bristolri_wx]

[bristolri_wx]

RRFS is also on Pivotal but not on Tropical Tidbits yet…

[kdxken]

5 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

So oppressive summeh has not locked in until Halloween? Shocked..

4th of July weekend is looking nice from a distance. 

 

 

[FXWX]

2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

 

It was like 2017ish. 

It was a bit of a Frankenstein "model". We really wanted some sort of probabilistic convective scale guidance, but it takes a lot of computing to run a large CAM ensemble. So somebody smarter than me decided to take what we already had running (ARW, HRRR, NSSL, etc) and turn them into a poor man's ensemble along with the 12 hour old versions of the same models. 

Pros: it provides some probability-like forecast parameters, it has a range of models/convective cores that can provide insight when biases are known.

Cons: it is not a true ensemble, as you would prefer one core and the entire range of possibilities for that. 

Thanks for the detailed history info...  I often incorporate it into short term (24 hr.) storm trends forecasts... Have found its winter precip products quite useful.  

[tamarack]

QPF has slid from 1.5-2.0 down to 1.0-1.5, now 0.5-1.0.  Last time I saw that kind of trend we had 0.01".  Seems like once I put in the garden it stops raining (this year) or never stops (2023).

[Torch Tiger]

50 minutes ago, kdxken said:

4th of July weekend is looking nice from a distance. 

 

 

looks ok. No summer heat = meh, but no pouring rains = good

[Damage In Tolland]

51 minutes ago, kdxken said:

4th of July weekend is looking nice from a distance. 

 

 

Wonder why you chose this over the Euro

[Torch Tiger]

Let's hope for sun n fun.  Wish it were a 92/72 heater but that's not feasible. 

[CoastalWx]

Gfs should not be used.