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June 2025 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Getting a bit nervous about that 4th of July weekend... 

The telecon spread is as of last night's layout undeniably signaling a cold piece of shitness look.   It really is fuckin' remarkable how you can set your watch to this occurring during these warm seasons holidays.  And there's only 3 of them so it a clever achievement of probability that 3 in 90 days are so well correlated to cold piece of shitness

image.png.823f9910612918f2817e1b991fcf3e08.png

I’m hoping the trough is far enough west but yeah need to watch. 

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Getting a bit nervous about that 4th of July weekend... 

The telecon spread is as of last night's layout undeniably signaling a cold piece of shitness look.  Below is the spatial/physically depicted synoptic version of those numerics.  

It really is fuckin' remarkable how you can set your watch to this occurring during these warm seasons holidays.  And there's only 3 of them so it's a clever achievement of probability that 3 in 90 days are so well correlated to cold piece of shitness

image.png.823f9910612918f2817e1b991fcf3e08.png

that NW/SE stretched ridge even showing its ugly head in the summer is the real suprising thing for me considering how many times that bit our ass last winter... To me, I think it has something to do with the increased zonal flow aloff, though I am an amature compared to you and others here

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Getting a bit nervous about that 4th of July weekend... 

The telecon spread is as of last night's layout undeniably signaling a cold piece of shitness look.  Below is the spatial/physically depicted synoptic version of those numerics.  

It really is fuckin' remarkable how you can set your watch to this occurring during these warm seasons holidays.  And there's only 3 of them so it's a clever achievement of probability that 3 in 90 days are so well correlated to cold piece of shitness

image.png.823f9910612918f2817e1b991fcf3e08.png

The seasonal oscillation....you can set your watch by warm piece of shitness during the cold season holidays.

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It's romantic to think of big heat ending with an exit big bang ... but, she seldom shows up. 

The reason for that is because as is typically the case, the front that demarcates the surface end of the heat wave, parallels the flow - typically still having heat wave CIN layer cap.  This mollifies instability while also doesn't provide triggers.  The result is that it just sort of goes away.  

It's progress in displacing the heat is in lockstep with the speed of the height decay aloft.  As the ridge recedes, the front is repositioning accordingly.  

You can see that happening here.  WSW-ENE oriented front side-winding slowly south, as the ridge is deflating - booorinnng

We just find our selves in a different world tomorrow with severe drizzle to show for the giant change.

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's romantic to think of big heat ending with an exit big bang ... but, she seldom shows up. 

The reason for that is because as is typically the case, the front that demarcates the surface end of the heat wave, parallels the flow - typically still having heat wave CIN layer cap.  This mollifies instability while also doesn't provide triggers.  The result is that it just sort of goes away.  

It's progress in displacing the heat is in lockstep with the speed of the height decay aloft.  As the ridge recedes, the front is repositioning accordingly.  

You can see that happening here.  WSW-ENE oriented front side-winding slowly south, as the ridge is deflating - booorinnng

We just find our selves in a different world tomorrow with severe drizzle to show for the giant change.

 

Perfect :lol:

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