June 2025 Obs/Disco

[CoastalWx]

An intensifying 998 low in the St Lawrence valley and most of us get jack dick. Why do people bother with convection?

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Not saying this is a positive or negative for today, however, sometimes I think there is too much focus on the timing of the actual cold front for our region. 9 times out of 10, the focus for our convection is a pre-frontal trough and never with the actual cold front. In the rare setups where we get moderate-to-extreme instability, that is where we can get a second round of convection with the cold front but when it comes to forcing/dynamics its usually s/w track and timing and pre-frontal trough. Now...more often than not the better dynamics are typically tied in close proximity to the cold front. Pre-frontal troughs can be a huge boost for us but they also kill alot of our opportunities. 

I could see this becoming an anvil/mammata late afternoon from southern VT/W CT,  with distant ominous thunder that devolves to just occasional orange lightning and a period of moderate decay rains.    Nasty mosquito evoking weather where it's warm and sultry with lighter rain might be the biggest disaster that befalls western zones out of this when that claims the late day for them. 

You should probably plan to chase to see that     yay

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I could see this becoming an anvil/mammata late afternoon from southern VT/W CT,  with distant ominous thunder that devolves to just occasional orange lightning and a period of moderate decay rains.    Nasty mosquito bite weather might be the biggest disaster the befalls western zones out of this when that claims the late day for them. 

Agreed, this looks much worse than I was hoping to see this morning. Looks like dynamics aren't as strong as modeled and looking at the lapse rates was a big blow to the gut. The steep lapse rates (~ 7 C/KM) IMO were a big driver in the potential today. But who knows...maybe instead of widespread storms forming into a line we see more discrete stuff with the pre-frontal. 

[Lava Rock]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like the heat is cut off Wed into Friday perhaps with Wednesday still possible 90 in CT. By srly July Rickie’s ridge develops again which will put a lid on temps for us but may turn more humid too.  

Two days here next wk of maybe 90. I'm shaking in my boots

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed, this looks much worse than I was hoping to see this morning. Looks like dynamics aren't as strong as modeled and looking at the lapse rates was a big blow to the gut. The steep lapse rates (~ 7 C/KM) IMO were a big driver in the potential today. But who knows...maybe instead of widespread storms forming into a line we see more discrete stuff with the pre-frontal. 

Are you suggesting that a SNE severe event maybe in peril?? Never could have foreseen that...

[CoastalWx]

HRRR says SW CT may have some decent storms. But initiation is sort of varied on models.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Are you suggesting that a SNE severe event maybe in peril?? Never could have foreseen that...

ehhh this is where people get super confused. Not every convective event is about severe weather. I'm a weather enthusiast, I enjoy thunderstorms and I enjoy snow. But I think it often gets misunderstood that whenever I talk about convection or say we have a chance for severe weather that it automatically means widespread severe weather, that is not the case. 99% of our convective events result in localized severe weather. Even in the Great Plains and midwest not every convective event is a widespread high-end event. Sure they get them wayyyy more frequently than we do. 

I get excited for thunderstorms...whether that comes with the chance for a 40 mph wind gust, pea hail, or just some heavy downpours with lightning. People get excited for 2-3 inches of snow in winter, don't they? or get excited just to see snow falling? It's the same concept, only difference is the scale of the two phenomena. 

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Are you suggesting that a SNE severe event maybe in peril?? Never could have foreseen that...

What interesting SNE wx actually produces these days? We’re a poor man’s San Diego. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR says SW CT may have some decent storms. But initiation is sort of varied on models.

I am not sure what to think of with the HRRR...it really struggled in the midwest leading up to yesterday and even during the day.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ehhh this is where people get super confused. Not every convective event is about severe weather. I'm a weather enthusiast, I enjoy thunderstorms and I enjoy snow. But I think it often gets misunderstood that whenever I talk about convection or say we have a chance for severe weather that it automatically means widespread severe weather, that is not the case. 99% of our convective events result in localized severe weather. Even in the Great Plains and midwest not every convective event is a widespread high-end event. Sure they get them wayyyy more frequently than we do. 

I get excited for thunderstorms...whether that comes with the chance for a 40 mph wind gust, pea hail, or just some heavy downpours with lightning. People get excited for 2-3 inches of snow in winter, don't they? or get excited just to see snow falling? It's the same concept, only difference is the scale of the two phenomena. 

You are usging this logic on the wrong person.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I am not sure what to think of with the HRRR...it really struggled in the midwest leading up to yesterday and even during the day.

This seems like a nowcast day. Models are all over the place on both initiation and coverage of convection.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyway, Paul, you have known me long enough to understand I'm just teasing. I do appreciate your enthusiasm for weather...savor that because you will probably never witness me admit it again.

[radarman]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I am not sure what to think of with the HRRR...it really struggled in the midwest leading up to yesterday and even during the day.

tossed

3km nam has consistently done better for convection here so far this year

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This seems like a nowcast day. Models are all over the place on both initiation and coverage of convection.

Translation: Trends are unfavorable, but F**K it....lets obsess, anyway, given the notable absence of a social life-

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are usging this logic on the wrong person.

Was hoping I could sneak it by  

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyway, Paul, you have known me long enough to understand I'm just teasing. I do appreciate your entusiasm for weather...savor that because you will probably never witness me admit it again.

Oh I know haha...I don't mind it but it's not as fun if I don't push back a little  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Was hoping I could sneak it by  

Oh I know haha...I don't mind it but it's not as fun if I don't push back a little  

Have you started looking at the winter stuff at all?

I'm just getting going...

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This seems like a nowcast day. Models are all over the place on both initiation and coverage of convection.

One of my favorite parts of convective forecasting is the nowcasting element!

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

tossed

3km nam has consistently done better for convection here so far this year

Yes it has, even elsewhere across the country too. 3km did much better in the midwest yesterday. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Have you started looking at the winter stuff at all?

I'm just getting going...

I plan on doing this shortly. I've been working on composites a bit. I also want to work on a different approach which isn't as ENSO focused...which will help this year given we may be more neutral-ish.

But I was thinking this...we are at a much different atmospheric state across the hemisphere now than we have been over the last several years, particularly across the PAC/CONUS...may not mean anything but we have been saying we need the atmosphere to flush out and maybe this is it! 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I plan on doing this shortly. I've been working on composites a bit. I also want to work on a different approach which isn't as ENSO focused...which will help this year given we may be more neutral-ish.

But I was thinking this...we are at a much different atmospheric state across the hemisphere now than we have been over the last several years, particularly across the PAC/CONUS...may not mean anything but we have been saying we need the atmosphere to flush out and maybe this is it! 

I think we are currently in a state of flux, but I don't think the prior regime has been completely "flushed out" quite yet....put it that way.

Anyway, OT here.

[radarman]

The best lapse rates are from like 850 to 600 at present, and of course as we heat up and clear out this shallow inversion it'll extend from the surface up. The upper levels are sort of meh.  And that applies to both lapse rates and winds.  I kind of think the tornado risk may be slightly underplayed, but the severe hail and straight line wind risk might be overplayed.  Heavy downpours regardless, albeit hopefully transient enough to avoid flash flood risk.  

[Typhoon Tip]

It'll be disappointing ... that's the forecast for winter.  

this overall social media's real purpose is to serve as a support group for folks that have a weird kind of emotional regulation issue vs being "dosed" by big model depictions. 

annnnd like the last 10 years of pounding lessons yet zero apparent retention ... next winter will succeed in giving plenty of reasons to make the aa meetings on time.

haha, stick to forecasting the dosage amplitude - you'll all be seasonal heroes

[Modfan2]

33 minutes ago, radarman said:

tossed

3km nam has consistently done better for convection here so far this year

What is it showing?

[radarman]

6 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

What is it showing?

decent line through most of CT and W MA mainly south of the pike before falling apart ORH->east

It could be overdone, but it's something

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

decent line through most of CT and W MA mainly south of the pike before falling apart ORH->east

It could be overdone, but it's something

It always intrigues me when the 3km is on the aggressive side b/c more often than not it is meh...and ends up nailing it. 

Anyways, 12z observed soundings are kind of garbage...though the BUF sounding shows stronger shear aloft which should overspread western areas later

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we are currently in a state of flux, but I don't think the prior regime has been completely "flushed out" quite yet....put it that way.

Anyway, OT here.

Nah. Keep going. Nothing interesting about summeh weather. 

[Torch Tiger]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Translation: Trends are unfavorable, but F**K it....lets obsess, anyway, given the notable absence of a social life-

good self-awareness there!

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What interesting SNE wx actually produces these days? We’re a poor man’s San Diego. 

In San Diego they get a lot of sun…

here?  Not so much…

[MJO812]

[Sey-Mour Snow]

79/78 at the home stations around here 

[dendrite]

The sun has emerged in CON.