June 2025 Obs/Disco

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Tue still looks hot, but Mon and Wed have come down a little up here…even Tue a little. Looks like we lost a couple C on the 850s.

Euro backdoors Wed night.

Long lasting epic Heat wave failing?  Maybe , Will be interesting to see if that backdoor moves up in time.. I think Sunday through Tuesday are guaranteed to be hot .. after that we will see.. Saturday should be a top 5 summer day.. just no oppressive.. 

[Hoth]

36 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Another waste of a day today 

Yup. Still socked in clouds and fog. Miserable. 

[Snowedin]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

65° / 64° feels gross with the wetness.

You’re right..we just need another +10 degrees in both metrics and we’re truly in business! 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, Wednesday, and Thursday next week might come down a few degrees, it looks like it comes back up Friday towards the weekend again. Overall, it’s a warm pattern. The end of the 11 to 15 day might get warm again, but it looks like it could be some decent rain chances as we straddle the boundary too.

[Chrisrotary12]

On 6/14/2025 at 2:04 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

Is it asking too much to get a nice heat dome derecho? Wish I was old enough for this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_wave_of_1995_derecho_series

Last nights Euro tries. Sends one from Bismark to Augusta Friday PM to Sunday AM.

[Damage In Tolland]

There’s not much of a door in SNE . Let’s not get hung up on 50’s and doors. It’s a massively hot pattern starting tomorrow with high dews many dews 

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s not much of a door in SNE . Let’s not get hung up on 50’s and doors. It’s a massively hot pattern starting tomorrow with high dews many dews 

It's been a beautiful week so far. You nailed it again. 

 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s not much of a door in SNE . Let’s not get hung up on 50’s and doors. It’s a massively hot pattern starting tomorrow with high dews many dews 

It’s enough to cool it off some.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s enough to cool it off some.

If it’s even real which we suspect it may not be . It’s not one of those cold back door looks and I think people are getting that impression. I mean sure it goes 90’s to 80’s for a day behind it if it happens 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

If it’s even real which we suspect it may not be . It’s not one of those cold back door looks and I think people are getting that impression. I mean sure it goes 90’s to 80’s for a day behind it if it happens 

Yeah it’s real. It just knocks temps back to 80s inland and lower dews. Still a propensity for troughs into Quebec. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, kdxken said:

It's been a beautiful week so far. You nailed it again. 

 

We had one bad day yesterday and one sunny 80 degree day Monday Ave a beautiful day tomorrow and Friday. You and TFlizz had 6 straight days of clouds and rain and that was on Sunday lol 

[Modfan2]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s enough to cool it off some.

And let’s be honest, it’s not like we haven’t hit 90F in many spots already this year, it’s the humidity that will make the days next week feel uncomfortable.

[CoastalWx]

Definitely a MCS risk Saturday night as Tip alluded to. But whether it goes to Maine or NYC is up in the air. Typically I like to see it modeled just north of SNE if we are to get it since they have a propensity to move more south.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely a MCS risk Saturday night as Tip alluded to. But whether it goes to Maine or NYC is up in the air. Typically I like to see it modeled just north of SNE if we are to get it since they have a propensity to move more south.

Just for once , please bring the goods, the damage , the excitement, the destruction. Just once, it’s not too much to ask 

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Yup. Still socked in clouds and fog. Miserable. 

woke up to fog/mist. Mod rn while driving to the gym. Didn't see that in the frcst

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just for once , please bring the goods, the damage , the excitement, the destruction. Just once, it’s not too much to ask 

We may have more chances through the 11-15 day as the heat tries to tickle.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just for once , please bring the goods, the damage , the excitement, the destruction. Just once, it’s not too much to ask 

I'd rather take my chances with a cane.

[CoastalWx]

Today should see some breaks in the aftn with temps 75-80. It won't be that bad. 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd rather take my chances with a cane.

Oh I would too . But at some point something has to give . The five finger boredom death punch the last 5 years is enough to make you gouge eyes out with a grapefruit spoon 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Early summer doing what it dews

[Chrisrotary12]

10 hours ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I haven’t had a real “wake up the neighborhood” night storm in ages 

First mention of “we don’t get night thunderstorms anymore” this year?

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah so others are onto it ... no heat wave next week.

Pattern is sputtering to 2 days on, 2 days off... and no confidence there after for next weekend.  The 2 days off could end up being dramatic too... We've gone from 101's in guidance to 68s over eastern NE..

The problem is up over eastern Canada.  From what I can tell, whether or not heat can expand and amplify for something more than merely pedestrian AN is sensitive to what is happening up there.   The flow has been sneakily correcting deeper and deeper with that anachronistic SPV SW of the D-Straight... The Euro at this point has a strong polar jet now curving around underneath - heat in New England seldom succeeds with polar jets in that position.  The idea of a +PP emerging and crushing the fragile heat S is really academic at this point.  The only way to reverse all that is to have that SPV substantially weaken in the guidance.

So, this may have been just another extended red herring ... no harm no foul.  We've spoken about the confidence risks already.  Plenty of time and this is all acceptable adjusting at this range.  I will say, the ensemble means are still flatter with the flow up there, however - so ...it's not impossible that the operational versions are a bit too amplified with that circulation structuring up there.   We'll have to see.

 

[Chrisrotary12]

On 6/16/2025 at 6:13 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

Have we had any doors this year? Next week maybe?

 

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Tue still looks hot, but Mon and Wed have come down a little up here…even Tue a little. Looks like we lost a couple C on the 850s.

Euro backdoors Wed night.

You don’t say. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah so others are onto it ... no heat wave next week.

Pattern is sputtering to 2 days on, 2 days off... and no confidence there after for next weekend.  The 2 days off could end up being dramatic too... We've gone from 101's in guidance to 68s over eastern NE..

The problem is up over eastern Canada.  From what I can tell, whether or not heat can expand and amplify for something more than merely pedestrian AN is sensitive to what is happening up there.   The flow has been sneakily correcting deeper and deeper with that anachronistic SPV SW of the D-Straight... The Euro at this point has a strong polar jet now curving around underneath - heat in New England seldom succeeds with polar jets in that position.  The idea of a +PP emerging and crushing the fragile heat S is really academic at this point.  The only way to reverse all that is to have that SPV substantially weaken in the guidance.

So, this may have been just another extended red herring ... no harm no foul.  We've spoken about the confidence risks already.  Plenty of time and this is all acceptable adjusting at this range.  I will say, the ensemble means are still flatter with the flow up there, however - so ...it's not impossible that the operational versions are a bit too amplified with that circulation structuring up there.   We'll have to see.

 

Sunday- Wednesday is 90’s to near hundred Tuesday . 4 days 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah so others are onto it ... no heat wave next week.

Pattern is sputtering to 2 days on, 2 days off... and no confidence there after for next weekend.  The 2 days off could end up being dramatic too... We've gone from 101's in guidance to 68s over eastern NE..

The problem is up over eastern Canada.  From what I can tell, whether or not heat can expand and amplify for something more than merely pedestrian AN is sensitive to what is happening up there.   The flow has been sneakily correcting deeper and deeper with that anachronistic SPV SW of the D-Straight... The Euro at this point has a strong polar jet now curving around underneath - heat in New England seldom succeeds with polar jets in that position.  The idea of a +PP emerging and crushing the fragile heat S is really academic at this point.  The only way to reverse all that is to have that SPV substantially weaken in the guidance.

So, this may have been just another extended red herring ... no harm no foul.  We've spoken about the confidence risks already.  Plenty of time and this is all acceptable adjusting at this range.  I will say, the ensemble means are still flatter with the flow up there, however - so ...it's not impossible that the operational versions are a bit too amplified with that circulation structuring up there.   We'll have to see.

 

# No heat wave in Tolland 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Sunday- Wednesday is 90’s to near hundred Tuesday 

This is your typical 88-93 for home stations and Bdl will throw out a 96-98 day on the tarmac 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Another banner day around the commonwealth. Low clouds and showers. 
 

long live summer 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely a MCS risk Saturday night as Tip alluded to. But whether it goes to Maine or NYC is up in the air. Typically I like to see it modeled just north of SNE if we are to get it since they have a propensity to move more south.

Yeah exactly. When we are bullseye several days out, the boundary nearly always ends up SW of us

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh I would too . But at some point something has to give . The five finger boredom death punch the last 5 years is enough to make you gouge eyes out with a grapefruit spoon 

Jan 7 2024 was incredible...Feb 1 2021 was okay, too....but that's about it for me.

[Boston Bulldog]

NWS HeatRisk is slowly escalating from Sunday through Tuesday, though we still aren’t seeing Extreme values punching into New England just yet.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/