June 2025 Obs/Disco

[radarman]

I can't get excited at all for setups with no shear and New England style high instability

You want to give me >4k mucape pulsers maybe I'll raise an eyebrow, but otherwise meh

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

I can't get excited at all for setups with no shear and New England style high instability

You want to give me >4k mucape pulsers maybe I'll raise an eyebrow, but otherwise meh

It sucks shear blows. 

[Prismshine Productions]

12 hours ago, dryslot said:

16 more days and we start losing daylight, Can’t wait.

yeah same here

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here’s your damage 

https://x.com/wx1box/status/1930952787380109476?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

yeah, I'm high confidence after eval that this was a wet microburst.   Specific rad pulse took place as sat showed a circumvella over shooting anvil exploding radially, and then within moments we had timbre cracked wind/rain/hail for 5 minutes of hell. 

As Chris Farley would say .... " It    was    AWWesome"

[radarman]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

It sucks shear blows. 

If I had to chase I'd probably take my chances with the surface based instability in the valley S of HFD and just hope something pops.  Could bust completely but higher upside IMO.  Often further north has better dynamics but I just don't see them today.

[CoastalWx]

We had a setup in 2004 like this. All the action was on cold side of front but big time storms. Had two days of nickels and larger.

[Pennfisherman]

I didn't think it was possible... but reading these forms, it might be harder to decipher whether its hot/cold in the summer than cold/snowy or dry in the winter . Seems like people make the models support there belief regardless of what it shows.  

[CoastalWx]

It was late May. I’ll see if I can find the storm reports. 

[Prismshine Productions]

I am in a slight.... nice

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, radarman said:

If I had to chase I'd probably take my chances with the surface based instability in the valley S of HFD and just hope something pops.  Could bust completely but higher upside IMO.  Often further north has better dynamics but I just don't see them today.

That’s why I was originally thinking remaining along CT/MA border. Unfortunately, this may be the “best”/only opportunity of vacation so have to roll with it. Maybe Tuesday can offer something or next Saturday but too far out. 

[Torch Tiger]

39 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We fold. It’s not cool but heat is done. 

hammered?

[powderfreak]

10 minutes ago, Pennfisherman said:

I didn't think it was possible... but reading these forms, it might be harder to decipher whether its hot/cold in the summer than cold/snowy or dry in the winter . Seems like people make the models support there belief regardless of what it shows.  

The trick is to not even look at model guidance, maybe some twitter posts, and “guide” the weather to the outcome you want.

[Pennfisherman]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The trick is to not even look at model guidance, maybe some twitter posts, and “guide” the weather to the outcome you want.

So it seems.... To a novice like myself, it can be maddening reading contradicting posts. I look at models, but my lack of knowledge can only tell me so much. I than come to these forms to pull more from the models and to learn. Maybe, that's my mistake. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

hammered?

You?

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Dewy and steamy inland thru tomorrow thankfully 

That's what you're hanging your hat on? You flipped on your light switch this morning and ACATT came scurrying out from underneath your cabinets. You're in for a tough stretch.

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, Pennfisherman said:

I didn't think it was possible... but reading these forms, it might be harder to decipher whether its hot/cold in the summer than cold/snowy or dry in the winter . Seems like people make the models support there belief regardless of what it shows.  

Not all of us are "making America great again"   

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not all of us are "making America great again"   

Temps will be down 400% next week 

[SJonesWX]

8 minutes ago, Pennfisherman said:

So it seems.... To a novice like myself, it can be maddening reading contradicting posts. I look at models, but my lack of knowledge can only tell me so much. I than come to these forms to pull more from the models and to learn. Maybe, that's my mistake. 

keep on reading, you will find which posters are more accurate than others

[CT Rain]

Lapse rates are pretty steep. Sucks there's not better mid level flow but we'll probably have some fun bangers around. 

[tamarack]

Humidity has arrived.  Last 3 days were 73/35, 78/44, 86/49 but today's low is about 60 and high maybe 75.  Started planting last Monday and it turned dry, as usual.  Had 2 TS do a 7-10 around me about 6 PM yesterday and today's southern Maine RA refuses to cross Rt 2.  Forecast says we get the garden watered tomorrow.

[codfishsnowman]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Ha

The cod and haddock need so much help. Especially the cod. Ii never thought I would be glad to see it shut down. To think of what once was all the way down to the Virginia Capes in winter and year round to the deeper waters off NJ is mind boggling.

[Damage In Tolland]

20 minutes ago, kdxken said:

That's what you're hanging your hat on? You flipped on your light switch this morning and ACATT came scurrying out from underneath your cabinets. You're in for a tough stretch.

Despite what a few posted.. there is no cool BN weather in sight . Sweat by chainsaws as far as one can see 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Perhaps the most severe storm since I've lived at this address, 20 minutes ago.

Miraculously, we did not lose power, but watched two trees topple in a froth of rain and quarter sized hail roaring so loud that the multi-pulsing flickers of lightning could not be heard.  

I looked at radar and saw one thunderstorm cell ... everyone else to edge of the scan range was spared.   It's since expanded some and elongated...    

Good morning!  haha

Looking at sat and rad more detailed ... that was a very intense pulse within an ongoing small cluster coming down Rt 2.  I suspect we wet mircroburst around Ayer.   Not sure - in fact don't believe so judging ... - that this extended much beyond this locality. 

Rte 2 was fun coming down the hill by KFIT.  Serious ponding and I've been driving my daughter's smaller car for a couple of days.  Was like I was in a wave pool.    Some good lightning.  Rain wasn't so bad when I was driving, but earlier it was nasty

[weatherwiz]

Thinking of going to Ringe, NH as a spot...there is a place with some decent views there. But I am thinking the area from Rindge/Fitchburg/Leominster may be the "best" local corridor today. Right along the instability axis and somewhat stronger (still meh) wind shear. What is our goal for today? See some CGs and hopefully a shelf cloud. 

[Torch Tiger]

It may never hot again. wow

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

It may never hot again. wow

Yeah couple warm days maybe next weekend and then EPS seems to be backing off warmth here. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah couple warm days maybe next weekend and then EPS seems to be backing off warmth here. 

You will get attacked from the heat humpers for this.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah couple warm days maybe next weekend and then EPS seems to be backing off warmth here. 

Have to watch next Friday/Saturday for some severe potential...been a signal for a few days. I think we get one hot day end of next week ahead of the front but have to watch warm front. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, Pennfisherman said:

So it seems.... To a novice like myself, it can be maddening reading contradicting posts. I look at models, but my lack of knowledge can only tell me so much. I than come to these forms to pull more from the models and to learn. Maybe, that's my mistake. 

Good luck here.  We used to live more in model reality but that’s moved on to filling agendas with strong hyperbole.

The ones to trust are the ones who can actually say when models show the weather they don’t want.  Like Coastalwx loves heat and humidity in the summer… if he says models have backed off a bit on heat, they did.

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

You will get attacked from the heat humpers for this.

I actually would like it warmer, but calling it as I see it. Can't let emotions get in the way unlike some.