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June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike


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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

models have a batch tonight.  Tomorrow looks less impressive maybe b/c of the storms/cloud debris from tonight?

NAM 3km and HRRR have a pretty good round of showers/storms tomorrow but pretty late, around 8 to 10pm. Hopefully we'll get a decent soaking either from that or the potential round overnight tonight. 

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19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow my 102 guess for June 24 was correct.... I just saw your very excellent post, Don.  I've always wondered if we could do temperature corrections like this.

I'm guessing Central Park should have reached 90 yesterday too?

 

It just hit 91 here Don, I'm guessing Central Park is a bit behind again today?

89 so far.

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20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow my 102 guess for June 24 was correct.... I just saw your very excellent post, Don.  I've always wondered if we could do temperature corrections like this.

I'm guessing Central Park should have reached 90 yesterday too?

 

It just hit 91 here Don, I'm guessing Central Park is a bit behind again today?

93 based on the pre-2000 regression equation.

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27 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM 3km and HRRR have a pretty good round of showers/storms tomorrow but pretty late, around 8 to 10pm. Hopefully we'll get a decent soaking either from that or the potential round overnight tonight. 

There are also storms modelled for tonight around 11pm-12am

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With JFK Airport's having reached 90° for the seventh time this month and New York City (Central Park) having a high of 89° so far, JFK Airport could wind up with four more 90° or above highs than Central Park this month. That would tie the largest difference when JFK had more 90° highs. The record was set in June 2010 when JFK had eight such days while Central Park had four.

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3 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Looking at the numbers, mean summertime high temperatures for the most recent 15 years (2010-2024) are about 1.5-2.5F warmer in most places in the eastern US, compared to the preceding 15 years (1995-2009). Have to wonder how much of that is attributable to a climate signal and how much of that is attributable to the 2010 amendments to the Clean Air Act.

International shipping (which was a major source of aerosol pollution) also became much cleaner like in 2020 or something like that. Tack that on top of the rising temps too. 

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June ended on a hot note across much of the New York City area. High temperatures included:

Islip: 89°
New York City-Central Park: 90°
New York City-JFK Airport: 90°
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 91°
Newark: 93°

New York City is finishing June with a monthly mean temperature of 73.2°. That is 1.2° above normal. June 2025 saw New York City's earliest 80° or above low temperature and an all-time record-tying 3 consecutive 80° or above lows during its heatwave on June 23-25. On June 9, the daily temperature range was just 2° (high: 64°; low: 62°), which tied the June monthly record set on June 8, 1869 and tied on June 11, 1910, June 8, 1916, June 20, 1958, and June 17, 1978.

Overall, the June 23-25 heatwave was the most extreme on record for the larger New York City area. Islip (101°) and JFK Airport (102°) set new monthly high temperature records. Bridgeport, LaGuardia Airport, Newark, and White Plains all tied their monthly records.

Very warm weather will prevail through mid week. New York City will see highs in the upper 80s. Newark will likely be near or just above 90° on each day during this period. 

Excessive heat does not appear likely to return through at least the first week of July. However, there is somewhat less certainty than yesterday. There remains some potential for a shot of more significant heat during the July 6-8 period. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.2°C for the week centered around June 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least late summer.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.182 today. 

 

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